Should I Start Christian Kirk, Brian Thomas Jr. or Gabe Davis vs. the Dolphins in Fantasy Football Week 1?

The Jacksonville Jaguars signed quarterback Trevor Lawrence to a five-year, $275 million contract extension in the offseason. That was one step in the team’s quest to be among the league’s elite.

The next step was finding players to catch his passes.

To that end, the Jaguars went out and acquired veteran wide receiver Gabe Davis and drafted Brian Thomas Jr., pairing them with veteran Christian Kirk.

So which one of these three wide receivers should fantasy managers most think about starting in Sunday’s season opener at the Miami Dolphins? Here are the fantasy outlooks for Kirk, Thomas, and Davis heading into Week 1.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Christian Kirk

Kirk enters this season as the WR35 in Pro Football Network’s consensus fantasy football rankings.

Kirk is looking for a bounce-back season after injuries limited the veteran to only 12 games last season.

Kirk had his moments last season — his two 100-yard receiving games came against the two Super Bowl participants, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers. And his yards per reception (13.7) was a career-high.

But with the addition of Thomas and Davis, not to mention tight end Evan Engram coming off the best season of his career last season, fantasy managers are fair to question exactly how many opportunities will be coming Kirk’s way in 2024.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Brian Thomas Jr.

Thomas is the WR34 in PFN’s consensus rankings, which is a telling signal that the Jaguars — and fantasy managers — expect big things from Thomas in his rookie season.

Thomas had an impressive 2023 season at LSU, catching passes from Heisman Trophy winner and current Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels.

Thomas caught 68 passes for 1,177 yards last season for the Tigers. He also averaged 17.3 yards per reception, which is probably appealing for fantasy managers, along with his FBS-leading 17 touchdown receptions.

Week 1 Fantasy Outlook for Gabe Davis

Davis is WR55 in PFN’s rankings. Davis has never been about being prolific when it comes to catching passes, as he has never reached 50 receptions in any of his four NFL seasons.

But what Davis does do is catch the deep ball and get in the end zone. Davis had seven touchdown receptions last season, catching a touchdown pass once every 6.4 receptions (Davis had 45 receptions last season).

Davis’ 16.6 yards per reception last season gave him a yards per reception average of 15 or better in all four seasons.

Who Should I Start in Week 1?

According to Pro Football Network’s Fantasy Football Start/Sit Optimizer, Kirk is the best choice of the three to start Sunday. He is projected to finish with 53 receiving yards on four receptions and 11.0 fantasy points.

Those projections are slightly better than those for Thomas — four receptions, 53 receiving yards, 10.6 fantasy points — and Davis — two receptions, 34 receiving yards, 7.3 fantasy points.

While the optimizer prefers the veteran Kirk, I disagree slightly and would recommend Thomas to start among these three.

The Jaguars want this to be a new era, and what better way than the introduce the rest of the NFL to the Lawrence-to-Thomas connection?

Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Kirk and Thomas in Week 1

Christian Kirk: This offense sort of struggled to sustain two viable receivers last season as it was often one of them along with Evan Engram cracking fantasy lineups. I think there’s a decent chance that changes this season and that is why I have both primary WRs in Jacksonville inside my top-35 at the position.

Well, that and the projected shootout nature of this game.

We know Kirk can get open in a hurry and I think that’ll create a nice floor against a Miami team that ranked second in pressure rate when not blitzing last season (39.3%, six full percentage points above league average). Kirk likely doesn’t win you your matchup this week, though I would be surprised if he came in well under expectations and set you behind.

Brian Thomas Jr.: I’m in — all the way in. This WR rookie class got plenty of deserved attention this summer, and I actually think some of the hype actually helped us get a bargain on Thomas. With the bar set so high for Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers, Thomas’ star didn’t shine as bright in terms of the media machine – that could change once the cleats hit the ground and the games count

Brian Thomas Jr.

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— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 29, 2024

If you need the full Thomas love letter, check out either our Bold Takes or My Guys podcasts — I couldn’t choose, so he’s heavily featured in both. As for this specific week, the ‘Fins were the fifth worst red-zone defense last season, and that has me thinking Thomas could score in his NFL debut, something his LSU brethren in Ja’Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. both did.

I think you can Flex him now, I’m not going to wait on a profile that lines up this well.