After an extremely efficient rookie season, fantasy football managers were pretty excited about Tennessee Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo heading into last season. Unfortunately, things didn’t exactly get much better. Could this be the year Okonkwo emerges into a weekly startable fantasy tight end?
Should You Select Chigoziem Okonkwo at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 219th Overall (TE23)
- Rookie-Year Hype: Okonkwo drew a lot of attention after his rookie season due to elite metrics, including a league-leading 3.26 yards per route run and a 33.3% targets per route run rate. Fantasy managers were optimistic about his potential heading into 2023.
- Increased Volume, Decreased Efficiency: Despite a significant increase in volume during his sophomore season, Okonkwo’s efficiency regressed. His target share rose to 16.2%, but his targets per route run rate dropped to 20.2%, and his yards per route run fell to 1.39, resulting in only a modest increase in fantasy points per game.
- More Passing, But More Competition: The Titans are expected to lean more on the passing game with Derrick Henry gone, but Okonkwo faces increased target competition. DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, and a strong pass-catching RB duo in Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears all challenge Okonkwo for targets.
- ADP Analysis: Okonkwo is currently being drafted at TE24, which carries minimal risk as a late-round pick. However, with Will Levis under center and a crowded receiving corps, it’s hard to see Okonkwo emerging as anything more than a touchdown-dependent TE2.
- Final Verdict: Okonkwo is my TE21, and he’s not a player I’m targeting in drafts. The increased competition and questionable quarterback play make him a risky pick with limited upside. Fantasy managers should look elsewhere for a more reliable tight end option.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Chigoziem Okonkwo
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Okonkwo is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus TE rankings instead.
16) Pat Freiermuth, TE | Pittsburgh Steelers
17) Luke Musgrave, TE | Green Bay Packers
18) Taysom Hill, TE | New Orleans Saints
19) Cade Otton, TE | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) Hunter Henry, TE | New England Patriots
21) Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE | Tennessee Titans
22) Tucker Kraft, TE | Green Bay Packers
23) Juwan Johnson, TE | New Orleans Saints
24) Tyler Conklin, TE | New York Jets
25) Gerald Everett, TE | Chicago Bears
26) Isaiah Likely, TE | Baltimore Ravens
Okonkwo’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Fantasy Season
The 2022 fourth-round pick drew a ton of praise in the fantasy circle for his elite (league-leading) 3.26 yards per route run rate and 33.3% targets per route run rate (second in the NFL).
Based on Okonkwo’s ability to command targets when on the field and his effectiveness when the ball was thrown his way, the general outlook on him heading into the 2023 season was very positive.
While Okonkwo undoubtedly possessed significant talent, nothing he did as a rookie would matter unless the volume increased. Well, the volume increased substantially in his sophomore season, but unfortunately, the efficiency regressed.
Okonkwo’s target share ticked up to 16.2%, which was still only 17th in the league. That’s incredibly discouraging, considering the Titans’ only NFL-caliber starting WR was DeAndre Hopkins.
Okonkwo’s targets per route run rate decreased to 20.2%, and his yards per route run plummeted to 1.39. His rookie-year efficiency was always going to be unsustainable.
However, the inevitable drop far outweighed the moderate uptick in volume. As a result, Okonkwo’s fantasy points per game increased a mere point from 5.7 to 6.7. He didn’t crack double digits until Week 16, which was his only game over 10 fantasy points.
The Titans have historically been a very run-heavy offense, featuring Derrick Henry as the centerpiece. With Henry gone, the expectation is they will lean more on the pass than they have for the better part of the past decade.
While that may be true, the Titans weren’t nearly as run-heavy last season as they typically are. They actually threw the ball 55% of the time (that goes for overall and neutral game script). Even if that pushes closer to 60% with Tennessee allowing sophomore QB Will Levis to sling it, Okonkwo’s target competition has increased significantly.
The Titans still have Hopkins, who isn’t quite done just yet. They brought in Calvin Ridley, who, for better or worse, is going to command much more volume than the cavalcade of misfits Tennessee was deploying at WR2 and WR3 last season. The team also signed Tyler Boyd, who will immediately step in as the slot receiver and likely jump Okonkwo in the target priority.
As if that isn’t enough, the Titans’ RB duo of Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears is one of the best pass-catching duos in the league. Overnight, Okonkwo went from arguably the second option in the passing game to as low as the fifth or sixth.
Is Okonkwo a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
There’s obviously zero risk associated with drafting Okonkwo at his TE24 ADP. There’s zero risk associated with taking any player in the last round of fantasy drafts. If you want Okonkwo, that’s the spot to draft him at.
I’m not a believer in Levis as anything more than a low-end starter. If he can support two fantasy-relevant pass catchers, it’s going to be Hopkins and Ridley. It’s very difficult to envision Okonkwo being anything more than a random touchdown-or-bust TE2, at best.
Okonkwo is my TE21, which means he’s not on my board. There aren’t enough compelling reasons for any fantasy manager to target the Titans’ tight end.