My Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers pick focuses on the Kansas City defense. Yes, they have an explosive offense leading the league in points per game. Yes, they are the only team to be averaging 30 or more points per game. Yes, Patrick Mahomes is an alien.
But it is their defense that can help us decide where the best bet is for our wagers in this Sunday Night Football prediction. I will add, however, that there is a particular trend with the offense we should take note of, too, that may come as a surprise. But first, let’s look at what my picks are, and then we can understand why.
Chiefs vs. Chargers Sunday Night Football Prediction
- Against the Spread:
- Score Projection:
Chiefs 22 Chargers 18
- Confidence Rating:
- Alternate Point Totals:
Chiefs: Under 27.5 points (-105)
Chargers: Under 22.5 points (-115)
Chiefs vs. Chargers Best Bets
If you have been following me on Pikkit, then you know my sports betting model has had a good run to kick off November, including last Sunday Night Football, which also involved the Chargers. Unfortunately for them, the model is predicting a similar result. We’ll see them cover the spread but ultimately lose outright.
As I discussed with Pro Football Network’s Trey Wingo on our show Football Insiders, this game sports a very popular quarterback matchup. But as I said at the top, we should focus first on the defenses.
Specifically, the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense. After giving up 20 or more points in seven straight games to open the season, they have come out of the bye week giving up only 17 points in each of their last two games. They have done this through timely playmaking, but also through their superstars like Chris Jones exploiting matchups and keeping teams in difficult down-and-distance situations.
This has led them to not only give up fewer points than they had all season but also to start a deceleration trend in the rate they are giving up points week over week. To be clear, they had been on a downward trend starting after their Week 4 game, where they had given up fewer points than the week prior each week. They are now giving up 15% fewer points week over week. The question was: would the bye week inhibit that?
It hasn’t. Yes, the Chargers are possibly getting back Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this week. However, I think the Chiefs’ defense continues its trend, and I would not be surprised if they hold the Chargers under 20 points.
Let’s also keep in mind that they are facing a Chargers offense that has been on a bit of a cold streak. Since scoring 24 points against the Chiefs in Week 2, the Chargers have failed to reach that mark in five of their next seven games. The Chiefs’ defense is better than it was in Week 2.
When we look at why I am taking the under in this game and why I feel it is the best bet for the Chiefs vs. Chargers matchup, it goes beyond the two trends I mentioned above. We have to consider what the other sides of the ball are doing for each team.
The Kansas City offense, while still the most impressive in the league, has seen a 13% deceleration week over week in the number of points they’ve scored. In a vacuum, they are on pace to most likely score 24 points but could score as many as 37 or as few as 16.
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Add to that the trend for the Chargers’ defense, which is giving up 15% fewer points week over week (matching the Chiefs’ defense), and this could be a night where KC’s hot offense gets cooled a bit. Can LA cool it enough to get a victory?
No. Kansas City wins 22-18.
*Thursday Night Football bets are all made using the Caesars Sportsbook. To track these bets, follow along on PFN’s number-one-rated best bet-tracking app, Pikkit.