Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction, Pick: Will Patrick Mahomes and Co. win on Saturday in Week 18?

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to get back on track against the Denver Broncos --we make a pick/prediction for the divisional Saturday tilt.

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to get back on track against the Denver Broncos in Week 18. Kansas City lost the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs to the Tennessee Titans after losing last week, but they can reclaim it with a win and a Titans loss in Week 18. Denver has officially been eliminated from the playoffs, but they have a chance to keep a division rival from the top seed for the AFC in the postseason. You’ll find the NFL odds along with our pick and Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction for this week.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos pick, prediction | Week 18

  • Spread: Chiefs -9.5 (Odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -425, Broncos +320
  • Over/Under: 44

Quarterback questions in Denver

The Broncos were performing well before Teddy Bridgewater suffered an injury in Week 15 against the Cincinnati Bengals. He suffered a concussion in that game, and he hasn’t been able to pass through the NFL’s concussion protocol since.

Drew Lock took over for Bridgewater in that contest, losing 15-10 to Cincinnati. He started the next two games, losing 17-13 and 34-13 to the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers, respectively.

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The offense has completely stalled without Bridgewater under center, and he isn’t expected to play in Week 18. Head coach Vic Fangio said that Bridgewater hasn’t passed through the concussion protocol yet, and they don’t expect him to by Saturday.

Lock is expected to draw the start, and he’s 0-4 in games with double-digit pass attempts this season.

Chiefs vs. Broncos betting trends

Kansas City has been neutral against the spread (ATS) throughout the season. They own an 8-8 ATS record, although they’ve covered the spread in six of their last seven games. Denver enters this game with a 7-9 ATS record through 16 games. They’ve lost three consecutive games ATS, and Lock is 0-4 ATS in games with 10+ pass attempts.

These teams are opposites in terms of the game total. The Chiefs have found the over in 56.3% of their games this season. The Broncos, on the other hand, have hit the under in a league-high 75% of their games. They’re hitting the under by an average of 6.1 points per game.

Chiefs vs. Broncos prediction

There’s little reason to back Lock at this point in his career. He hasn’t taken steps forward in 2021, and the Chiefs are playing for a shot at the top overall seed in the AFC.

Kansas City should be looking to get back on track prior to the playoffs, and an easier matchup against an already eliminated Broncos team will help.

The sub-10-point line is somewhat surprising, as I anticipated this being 10+ points. I don’t expect Lock to figure out how to make Denver’s offense work all of a sudden. Kansas City should run away with another big win.

Chiefs vs. Broncos Score Prediction: Chiefs 28, Broncos 13