The Kansas City Chiefs will be without RB1 Isiah Pacheco for roughly 6-8 weeks as he recovers from a fibula fracture. That leaves fantasy football managers to try and figure out who, if anyone, will be the most impactful member of this backfield. Let’s see if we can parse through the range of outcomes for Carson Steele, Samaje Perine, and Keaontay Ingram.
Projecting Carson Steele’s, Samaje Perine’s, and Keaontay Ingram’s Fantasy Output in Week 3
For all of your start/sit decisions, you should consult the PFN Start/Sit Optimizer. However, it may not be the most helpful regarding the Chiefs’ backfield specifically. Simply put, we just don’t know what things are going to look like in Week 3.
The Optimizer projects Steele for 7.8 points, Perine for 6.8, and Ingram for 4.1. None of those numbers are helpful for fantasy managers.
Nevertheless, I would encourage managers to focus less on the point projections and more on the order. Steele and Perine are essentially No. 1s, while Ingram lags pretty far behind as unstartable.
We will certainly get answers when we see Kansas City play this Sunday. Until then, the best approach is to avoid all three unless you have no choice.
Carson Steele’s Fantasy Outlook
The first thing we need to do is kind of set the table with what we’re working with. We know Steele, Perine, and Hunt are going to be the running backs handling all of the touches. What we don’t know is how those touches will be distributed.
We’ll start with Steele. Clearly, the kid is talented. He’s a big back at 228 pounds, who was able to earn a roster spot as a little-known undrafted free agent. In his sophomore season at Ball State, Steele displayed feature-back ability by handling 289 carries. He projects to be the Chiefs’ lead runner and goal-line back.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 3 Start/Sit Advice for Every Fantasy-Relevant Player
An area of concern for Steele’s fantasy value is his receiving work. He caught 29 passes in that sophomore year but only had 17 as a junior at UCLA. Given the profiles of the other two guys in this backfield, I would be projecting Steele for maybe one target per game, which caps his fantasy upside, making him almost entirely touchdown dependent.
Samaje Perine’s Fantasy Outlook
Next, we have Perine. The 29-year-old journeyman has never been consistently relevant in fantasy. He’s had a couple of stretches, most notably early in his career with Washington, as well as in 2022, stepping in for Joe Mixon a couple of times.
Perine latched on with the Chiefs this offseason very late in training camp. It’s fair to argue he’s the least familiar with the team, as Steele has been there all summer, and Hunt spent his first two seasons in Kansas City.
Perine has been active for each of the team’s first two games but has yet to register a carry and has caught exactly one pass in each contest.
It is noteworthy that last week, before Pacheco went down, Steele was already handling carries, including around the goal line. Perine did not.
Keaontay Ingram’s Fantasy Outlook
While all the excitement this week was over Kareem Hunt’s arrival, Ingram was added to the 53-man roster when Pacheco was placed on injured reserve.
The #Chiefs added RB Keaontay Ingram to the active roster. Andy Reid told @Leabonics that 'He had a really good camp for us, felt comfortable with him moving up.' pic.twitter.com/90nDn3GhGw
— Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) September 18, 2024
Reid told reporters that Ingram “had a really good camp for us, felt comfortable with him moving up.” He went on to add that “we expect him to be ready to play, and I think he’s done that. He’s worked hard on the scout team part of it, stayed in tune with the offense, he’s in all the meetings, so he was ready for it.”
Reed’s words on Wednesday were not hollow. On Friday, he confirmed that Hunt would not be elevated for Week 3, giving Ingram a chance to play a role on game day.
From a fantasy perspective, Ingram is an intriguing ad, but nothing more at this stage. In 62 career rushes, he averages 2.2 yards per attempt and has a 22.6% success rate on those running plays. He also has 47 receiving yards on eight receptions from nine targets but still only has a 33.3% success rate on receiving plays.
Nothing about this is promising for Ingram’s outlook as a fantasy contributor, but if there is a chance for him to be the lead back on the Chiefs, he is worth adding as an insurance option. Chances are that he will never get a full chance with Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Pacheco all lurking as options later in the season.
Kyle Soppe’s Fantasy Outlook for Steele and Perine in Week 3
Steele (undrafted rookie out of UCLA) pretty clearly has the attention of this coaching staff, as he has gotten valuable work through the first two weeks, but expecting him to handle stepping into Pacheco’s voluminous role is overly optimistic.
Perine spent much of this summer with the Broncos, but it stands to reason that, with time, he’ll carve out a niche in this offense due to his reliability on third down. Edwards-Helaire is on injured reserve and will miss at least two more games, though his NFL experience at least makes him worthy of a stash now if he was cut loose.
Of course, you know what you’re getting with CEH if you go down that road. Of the 64 qualified RBs since 2022, he ranks 62nd in percentage of carries that have gained 10+ yards (6.4%, ahead of only AJ Dillon and Ezekiel Elliott).
The moral of the story — we have several moving pieces that are close to a valuable role, but not of whom project favorably should they earn it. There’s been a lot of carnage at the Flex positions throughout the league up to this point, which makes all of these RBs worthy of your attention, even if the projectable ceilings aren’t anywhere close to the value that Pacheco was as the RB1 in K.C.’s offense.