The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chiefs skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 13 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Is Patrick Mahomes here to save your fantasy season (if there is a season left to save)? The former MVP has thrown six touchdown passes on 70 attempts over his past two games after throwing for six scores on 190 passes in the five games prior.
We know that this offense is more than capable of putting points on the board in a hurry. Mahomes has been good for multiple passing touchdowns in four of his past five and has been more willing to pick up chunk plays with his legs than in regular seasons past.
My concern here is the return of Isiah Pacheco and the potential to physically dominate on a short work week. Mahomes is my QB13 this week, and I think your willingness to go this direction is matchup-dependent.
The former MVP carries a reasonable floor, but I don’t think he has access to a ceiling that QBs in good spots like Russell Wilson (at CIN) or Baker Mayfield (at CAR) share.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Updated at 1:45 PM ET on Friday, November 29
Pacheco is active for today's game.
There was cautious optimism entering last week that Isiah Pacheco (leg) would return to action against the Panthers, but Andy Reid ultimately ruled him out on Friday, opting to not bring him back on the heels of a short week.
A return to action on Black Friday makes all the sense in the world — Kansas City is heavily favored and will have something of a mini-bye heading into Week 14, allowing its star running back an extra 48 hours to recover.
I’m treating Pacheco as a fantasy manager exactly how I anticipate the Chiefs to — patience. They have no motivation to rush him back like the 49ers did with Christian McCaffrey, and that has me labeling 11-13 touches as a much more likely outcome than the 20.5 he averaged through the first two weeks this season.
The loss to the Bills in Week 11 could well prove to be a result that impacts fantasy championships in a major way. With Buffalo remaining in the chase for the top seed, Kansas City could be motivated to deploy Pacheco at full capacity sooner than they would have otherwise.
I have Kareem Hunt (RB2) ranked ahead of Pacheco (Flex) for this week, but I’m anticipating that flipping for Week 14 and this to be the Pacheco show during the fantasy playoffs, presuming he can escape the next few weeks without a setback.
Kareem Hunt, RB
Updated at 1:45 PM ET on Friday, November 29
Hunt is active for today's game.
I’ve been consistent in this train of thought, and I’m sticking with it — Kareem Hunt is a fantasy starter until we see Isiah Pacheco make it through a game without a setback. The presumed starter was inactive last week after some momentum had built surrounding his return to action, and while he is expected back on Black Friday, this team isn’t motivated to push the envelope.
Hunt has at least 19 touches in six of his past seven games, giving him room to surrender some work without falling outside of my top 24 at the position. The Chiefs may not be lighting up the scoreboard like we want them to, but 22.5% of Hunt’s touches this season have come in the red zone; that’s a role I want in my starting lineup against a Raiders defense that allows the fifth-most points per drive.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR
There will surely be more impressive touchdowns that come from this Patrick Mahomes/DeAndre Hopkins connection than the three-yarder we saw last weekend, but plays like that, with Mahomes running around and diagnosing things on the fly, are why I think Hopkins can be a difference-maker as this team chases a three-peat.
Of course, Hopkins being a vessel to history and him being an asset for us down the stretch aren’t necessarily the same thing. The future Hall of Famer has cleared 35 receiving yards in just one of five games with the franchise, meaning there is still a floor to fear.
The Raiders own the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL, and if you’re telling me that Mahomes is going to have time to pick apart this defense, I’ll take my chances with Hopkins in my starting lineup.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR
Updated at 1:45 PM ET on Friday, November 29
Smith-Schuster is active for today's game.
I have no issue holding onto JuJu Smith-Schuster, but you can justify going in this direction. The Chiefs’ passing game has been underwhelming for the majority of this season, and considering that he is still working his way back from missing nearly a month, the odds of a floor week are far greater than any sort of ceiling performance.
- Week 11: 32.7% snap share
- Week 12: 54.4% snap share
The slot role is Smith-Schuster’s to take, and maybe that makes him valuable during the fantasy postseason; in the scope of Week 13 (three targets on 36 routes since coming back), you need not worry.
Xavier Worthy, WR
Friends, the time is here. It has to be. I’ve resisted the urge to bet on Xavier Worthy, but the time is here. The time is now to make a statement.
We know the speed profile that exists here, so I’m choosing to read the recent development as a positive one, understanding that, despite these trends, he remains in scoring position the second he steps onto the field.
- Week 9 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Two targets, 23.5 aDOT
- Week 10 vs. Denver Broncos: Four targets, 16.3 aDOT
- Week 11 at Buffalo Bills: Five targets, 14.4 aDOT
- Week 12 at Carolina Panthers: Six targets, 10.5 aDOT
You’re likely aware that this is a plus matchup, but I’m guessing you don’t understand the degree to which that is true. Worthy has posted a 19.6% on-field target share this season when Patrick Mahomes isn’t pressured (9.3% otherwise), something I’m weighing in this game against the defense that heats up quarterbacks at the second-lowest rate in the league.
But wait, there’s more.
The target equity increase is a start but not enough to put our fate in the hands of this volatile rookie. The Raiders allow the ninth-highest passer rating this season on deep passes (104.9), a weakness that the Chiefs tried to exploit in the Week 8 meeting with three deep targets to Worthy; they just didn’t pan out. He did, however, earn five short-range targets in that game, including a score, giving me confidence that we may have a few more outs this week than a standard matchup.
I’m not done.
The value of Worthy’s targets is on the rise (EPA per target over the past two weeks is at +0.74, up from -0.31 over his previous five games), and he has a rush attempt in eight of 11 games. I’m in the mood to keep dumping stats on you, so can I interest you in a defense that has allowed 44.8% of end-zone targets to be caught (eighth-highest)?
This is more of a coincidence than anything, but you can’t stop me now. Worthy’s profile is similar to that of Jameson Williams, no? Skinny speed demons from big-name programs with first-round draft capital?
The next two games will be Worthy’s 12th and 13th with, barring some sort of unforeseen change, career games with a snap share north of 50%. Williams crossed that threshold earlier this season — in those two games, he turned six targets into 156 yards and a pair of scores.
Most people have used their “I’m going in on Worthy card” at this point, but I’ve been disciplined. I’ve held back.
That changes on Friday.
Travis Kelce, TE
For the fourth time in five games, Travis Kelce vacuumed in at least eight targets, and he paid off for fantasy managers with 12.2 PPR points. Was it annoying that, for a second consecutive week, Noah Gray caught a pair of touchdowns? It was, but in terms of projecting things forward, the involvement of the backup TE isn’t impacting my ranking of Kelce in a significant way.
I was encouraged that the Chiefs drew up a few screens for their veteran, easy-button targets that rack up PPR points. I don’t think Kelce is a threat to lead tight ends in scoring the rest of the way, but he’s a safe bet to return top-12 production, which holds value at a volatile position.