Looking to make more bets for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers game on Sunday Night Football? If so, then you’re most certainly in the right place, as we give out our favorite touchdown scorer bets for tonight’s contest.
Chiefs vs. Packers Best Touchdown Scorer Bets
Travis Kelce (-105 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Taylor Swift will be in attendance; that’s my analysis.
All joking aside, this line seems like really good value on Travis Kelce. Although he has only five touchdowns this season and just two in his last five games, Kelce’s red-zone target share is only down 3% from last year when he had 12 scores.
Considering 60% of his touchdowns this season have come in his first four games, perhaps this is the beginning of some positive regression.
AJ Dillon (+155 at DraftKings)
Blewis: Aaron Jones isn’t playing tonight, which should give AJ Dillon even more opportunities near the goal line tonight.
This season, however, Dillon has been inefficient inside the 10-yard line, with just one touchdown on 13 attempts (7.7%) and zero touchdowns on five carries inside the 5-yard line. Out of 34 running backs with 10 or more carries inside the 10-yard line, Dillon is one of seven players with one touchdown or less on these opportunities.
Last season, Dillon was much more efficient in this area, converting five of his 17 attempts inside the 10-yard line for touchdowns (29.4%) and four of his 10 within five yards of the end zone (40%).
Maybe we start to see some regression, with it beginning tonight against the 20th-ranked run defense by success rate?
Rashee Rice (+200 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Jaire Alexander (shoulder) has a chance to come back, but there’s no denying that, at best, he’s at less than full strength, and that has to be factored in when evaluating the Chiefs passing game. In the three games he has missed, opposing WR1s are averaging 85.3 yards per game and have seen 31% of the targets.
Now, some of that is a product of playing a pair of elite receivers in that sample (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen), but the point remains that they’ve struggled to slow down the opponent from throwing to their ace receiver, and it appeared in Week 12 that Rashee Rice finally earned that label.
The Packers own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT. Good! Here are the top five receivers in YAC yards per reception (minimum 30 receptions):
- Rashee Rice: 8.2
- Deebo Samuel: 7.5
- Demario Douglas: 7.3
- Nico Collins: 7.0
- DJ Moore: 6.3
Patrick Mahomes has played four games this season against a team with a bottom-five opponent aDOT — 5.62 aDOT (23.8% lower than his rate in all other games in 2023). The puzzle pieces are starting to align.
Bearman: I drafted Rice in a few fantasy football leagues, and while it’s taken a while, he is delivering on filling a hole in the Chiefs offense. He’s their top wideout with 44 receptions and has four TDs over his last six games. I like the +200 here and will even sprinkle some skittle money on +1100 for the first TD.
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