Chiefs vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Pick Featuring Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, and Rashee Rice

The Chiefs vs. Packers same game parlay pick for Sunday night get creative in the passing game by way of Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, and Rashee Rice.

In this era of football, so much of the game is determined by aerial production, so what better way to build out the same game parlay for the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Green Bay Packers clash than to focus there?

I’m building a +675 Chiefs vs. Packers same game parlay for this game with picks centered around both passing games.

Chiefs vs. Packers Betting Lines

  • Spread
    Chiefs -6
  • Moneyline
    Chiefs -260, Packers +215
  • Total
    42.5

Chiefs vs. Packers Same Game Parlay Pick

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Trivia Question: These two teams squared off in the first Super Bowl. In that season, Sonny Jurgensen was the league’s leading passer with how many yards?

  • (a) 3,056 (b) 3,349 (c) 3,612 (d) 3,747

Let’s start with the home team. The Jordan Love rollercoaster has had its ups and downs this season, with the Thanksgiving upset win over the Lions symbolizing more positive momentum in his first season under center.

Now is the time to pounce.

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This season, when Aaron Jones is significantly limited or sidelined, Love is averaging 6.9 yards per pass, a rate that is slightly below his season average despite those games largely coming against vulnerable secondaries. The defenses Love faced in those contests…

  • Average YPA: 6.6 (Chiefs: 5.6)
  • Average YPA rank: 19th (Chiefs: 3rd)
  • Average yards per completion: 10.3 (Chiefs: 9.1)
  • Average yards per completion rank: 22nd (Chiefs: 5th)

Also of note, Love averages 6.1 yards per pass this season when the Packers allow at least 24 points, something that sportsbooks are projecting to be the case in this spot. My thought for including that is that when a game puts Love in a spot to ramp up the aggression, his efficiency is a serious concern.

Let’s play with the numbers a bit. Love’s 6.9 yards per attempt number was earned against teams which, on average, allow 17.9% more yards per pass than the Chiefs. If we regress Love’s per-pass production by that 17.9% to account for this matchup and then average it to the 6.1 YPA Love has produced when teams reach the implied total of the Chiefs this week …

  • 5.9 yards per attempt

Teams throw 31.5 passes per game vs. KC, while Love averages 33.8 attempts per game. Let’s again take an average to give us a reasonable projection for tonight …

  • 32.7 attempts

We’ve got the skeleton for our projection, so let’s put it all together: 32.7 pass attempts at 5.9 yards per attempt — we are penciling in Love for 193 yards through the air tonight.

Jaire Alexander (shoulder) has a chance to come back, but there’s no denying that, at best, he’s at less than full strength, and that has to be factored in when evaluating the Chiefs pass game. In the three games he has missed, opposing WR1s are averaging 85.3 yards per game and have seen 31% of the targets.

Now, some of that is a product of playing a pair of elite receivers in that sample (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen), but the point remains that they’ve struggled to slow down the opponent from throwing to their ace receiver; it appeared in Week 12 that Rashee Rice finally earned that label for the Chiefs.

The Packers own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT this season. Good! Here are the top five receivers in YAC yards per reception this season (minimum 30 receptions).

  1. Rashee Rice: 8.2
  2. Deebo Samuel: 7.5
  3. Demario Douglas: 7.3
  4. Nico Collins: 7.0
  5. DJ Moore: 6.3

Over Kansas City’s past six games, two have come against an elite defense that rarely blitzes. I think we can agree that the Packers aren’t either of those things, let alone both. In those other four games, Rice has cleared 55 receiving yards in each.

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Patrick Mahomes has played four games this season against a team with a bottom-five opponent aDOT – 5.62 yards (23.8% lower than his rate in all other games this season). The puzzle pieces are starting to align.

Since the beginning of 2021, Mahomes has thrown an interception once every 59.7 attempts after we flip the calendar to December, a rate that is 19.2% better than his pre-December numbers over that stretch. I mentioned the low aDOT tendency against the Packers, and those are lower-risk passes, especially if Jaire Alexander is out again, which would put Mahomes in a spot to play clean football in this spot.

I’ll leave you with one quirky stat because that’s how I do things. This one supports my angle, though I’m willing to admit that it’s not a predictive stat – I simply like these oddities!

Mahomes’ INT rate against the NFC North this season is 0.9%. Against the rest of the NFL? 2.7%.

  • Trivia Answer: (d) 3,767. It was only a 14-game season and not exactly the passing environment that we have today, but Jurgensen threw for over 320 yards on five occasions in his big 1967 season.
  • Same Game Parlay Pick: Love under 227.5 passing yards, Rice over 55.5 receiving yards, Mahomes under 0.5 interceptions
  • Odds: +675 (at DraftKings)

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