This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup features two teams on different ends of the playoff spectrum with strong quarterbacks. The Kansas City Chiefs have the NFL’s top quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, and look to get back into first place in the AFC Playoff Picture.
The Green Bay Packers, on the other hand, have an ascending player in recent weeks with Jordan Love and could enter the playoff picture with a win.
On top of that, Taylor Swift will reportedly be in attendance to watch Travis Kelce play, who we all know performs much better when his pop star girlfriend is watching in person.
So, with all of this in mind, which player prop bets should you be targeting tonight? Let’s dive into our top Chiefs vs. Packers player prop bets for Sunday Night Football.
Top Chiefs vs. Packers Player Prop Bets
Isiah Pacheco Longest Reception Under 10.5 Yards (-125 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This is an unusual prop to give out for a running back, but Isaiah Pacheco has only had a reception for 11 or more yards in three games this season, with two of them going over by a combined four yards.
Of the 45 running backs with at least 20 targets this season, Pacheco has the third-lowest average depth of target, though aDOT isn’t as big of a concern with running backs because a big chunk of their targets come near the line of scrimmage. But still, Pacheco is even more dependent on yards after catch than most of his peers, and we have a big enough sample size to know this certainly plays a factor in his lack of long receiving plays.
Travis Kelce Under 69.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Blewis: This number seems high when you consider that Travis Kelce has had 70+ receiving yards in just three of ten games this season and that he’s facing a Packers defense that is allowing the fifth-lowest average depth of target.
Kelce is still the best tight end in the NFL, but he is not nearly as explosive as he used to be. This season, Kelce is averaging 10.5 yards per reception, which would be the lowest of his career by 1.7 yards. He’ll need a lot of opportunities in this matchup to go over this total, but the Packers have allowed the eight-fewest targets to tight ends this season.
The biggest concern here is that Taylor Swift will reportedly be in attendance (kidding, sort of).
Rashee Rice: Anytime TD (+200 at DraftKings), Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Soppe: Jaire Alexander (shoulder) has a chance to come back, but there’s no denying that, at best, he’s at less than full strength, and that has to be factored in when evaluating the Chiefs pass game. In the three games he has missed, opposing WR1s are averaging 85.3 yards per game and have seen 31% of the targets.
Now, some of that is a product of playing a pair of elite receivers in that sample (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Keenan Allen), but the point remains that they’ve struggled to slow down the opponent from throwing to their ace receiver, and it appeared in Week 12 that Rashee Rice finally earned that label.
The Packers own the fourth-lowest opponent aDOT this season. Good! Here are the top 5 receivers in YAC yards per reception this season (minimum 30 receptions)
- Rashee Rice: 8.2
- Deebo Samuel: 7.5
- Demario Douglas: 7.3
- Nico Collins: 7.0
- DJ Moore: 6.3
Patrick Mahomes has played four games this season against a team with a bottom-five opponent aDOT — 5.62 aDOT (23.8% lower than his rate in all other games this season). The puzzle pieces are starting to align.
Jordan Love Under 227.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Soppe: This season, when Aaron Jones is significantly limited or sidelined, Love is averaging 6.9 yards per pass, a rate that is slightly below his season average despite those games largely coming against vulnerable secondaries. The defenses Love faced in those contests…
- Average YPA: 6.6 (Chiefs: 5.6)
- Average YPA rank: 19th (Chiefs: 3rd)
- Average yards per completion: 10.3 (Chiefs: 9.1)
- Average yards per completion rank: 22nd (Chiefs: 5th)
Also of note, Love averages 6.1 yards per pass this season when the Packers allow at least 24 points, something that sportsbooks are projecting to be the case in this spot. My thought for including that is that when a game puts Love in a spot to ramp up the aggression, Love’s efficiency is a serious concern.
Let’s play with the numbers a bit. Love’s 6.9 yards per attempt number was earned against teams who, on average, allow 17.9% more yards per pass than the Chiefs. If we regress Love’s per pass production by that 17.9% to account for this matchup and then average it to the 6.1 YPA Love has produced when teams reach the implied total of the Chiefs this week…
- 5.9 yards per attempt
Teams throw 31.5 passes per game vs. KC, while Love averages 33.8 attempts per game. Let’s again take an average to give us a reasonable projection for tonight…
- 32.7 attempts
We’ve got the skeleton for our projection, so let’s put it all together: 32.7 pass attempts at 5.9 yards per attempt — we are penciling in Love for 193 yards through the air tonight.
Christian Watson Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at BetRivers)
Katz: Isn’t it a bit curious that after Christian Watson breaks out for 94 yards, his yardage line is still just 45.5? Perhaps it’s because the books aren’t buying it … and neither am I.
Before last week, Watson had just one other game with so much as more than 37 receiving yards. He thrived last week against a collapsing Lions pass defense.
Now, he gets a Chiefs defense allowing the eighth-fewest yards to wide receivers. L’Jarius Sneed has been locking down opposing outside receivers who are far more talented than Watson. Look for Watson to go back to his regularly scheduled programming this week.
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