After a Week 1 performance that left more questions than answers, especially surrounding the Chicago Bears‘ offense, the outcome of this game will be very telling as to where the team stands after its offseason of hype.
At first glance, a game against the Houston Texans could be a lopsided victory for the home team, but looking deeper, this Sunday night matchup could be closer than some predict.
Chicago Bears vs. Houston Texans Game Preview
Week 1 was not ideal for the Bears; there’s no question about that. However, with the Green Bay Packers losing their first matchup in São Paulo against the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFC North is in a three-way tie for first between the Bears, Minnesota Vikings, and Detroit Lions.
When it comes to matchups between Chicago and Houston, the Texans hold a 4-2 record all-time. While Houston may hold the all-time lead, the Bears have reigned victorious in their last two meetings.
Those two wins came before DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud, but the Bears are also coming into this game looking different than they did in their last two wins.
Houston is currently favored by six-and-a-half points at home and is expected to beat the Bears for a fifth time in history if the oddsmakers are correct.
And while it might seem like the Texans have this game wrapped in the bag before they even take the field, the stats tell a different story between these two teams. Courtesy of TruMedia, here are some key stats to get a better look at what’s to come on Sunday night.
5 Bears-Texans Stats From TruMedia
Stat: The Bears had just one offensive play in Week 1 of 15+ yards. Last season, Chicago had at least three plays of 15+ yards per game.
Analysis: It’s a surprise to no one that Chicago’s offense was alarmingly suspect last week. The Bears came into Week 1 with a handful of new parts on offense, so their inability to remain consistent has validation behind it.
The Texans allowed a league-high 9.2 yards per play on first down in Week 1. Given how much the Bears struggled offensively to build drives against the Tennessee Titans, success on first down could help Chicago lead a more consistent offense this week.
Stat: While the Caleb Williams doubters had a parade following his first NFL start, beginning a rookie season on the wrong foot doesn’t paint disaster forever. As the No. 1 pick in 2024, Williams compares well to a couple of other former top picks who ended up having a pretty decent NFL career.
Williams had a higher passer rating (55.7) in his first career start than Andrew Luck (55.7) and a higher completion percentage (48.3%) than Matthew Stafford (43.2%).
Analysis: When looking at how rookies perform in the NFL, it’s important not to overreact to their first game. For these inexperienced quarterbacks, it’s their first time playing against a starting NFL defense for four quarters.
Up to this point, they’ve been practicing versus looks from their own defense, making the game that much more of a new experience. Both Luck and Stafford struggled in their rookie debuts, and yet, both quarterbacks live on in NFL history.
Stat: Last week against the Titans, Chicago had an offensive success rate of 33.9%. Compared to last season (38.9%), questions are coming to the surface on whether the offensive additions made in the offseason were worth it.
Analysis: With new additions like Williams, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, and running back D’Andre Swift, a lot of new pieces drive this offensive machine. However, after just one week of the 2024 season, it doesn’t appear to making much of a difference yet.
Plus, their poor Week 1 performance came against a Titans defense that ranked 23rd in most net yards per pass attempt in 2023. As the Bears continue to adapt this season, the new pieces they gained on offense must step up to the plate.
Stat: The Bears own the second-best turnover defense (2.4 forced per game) and fourth-best scoring unit (17.1 PPG) since Week 10 of last season.
Analysis: Since Ryan Poles joined the Bears as general manager, he’s been phenomenal at finding players in the secondary to add to his infinity gauntlet on defense. Jaylon Johnson was a player he adopted with the team, but second-year cornerback Tyrique Stevenson is looking like one of Poles’ best selections.
After winning his second NFC Defensive Player of the Year award in his last three games, Stevenson has been red hot recently. In his last seven games, he’s totaled five interceptions, 12 passes defended, two forced fumbles, and a touchdown.
For Johnson, it took a little longer for him to heat up, totaling just one interception through his first 43 games. However, in his last 11 games, he has cemented himself as one of the best corners in the league, totaling five interceptions, 11 passes defended, and one touchdown.
Stat: For the Bears, this week is a double-whammy in terms of variables that don’t favor them. In Sunday Night Football matchups since 2000, the Bears hold a 13-24 record all-time. Along with that, it was announced that Chicago will be wearing its all-orange uniforms; the team holds a 1-3 record wearing those overall.
Analysis: Chicago hasn’t been a team that’s seen much primetime action recently, but this week it gets the nod against Houston. It’s a strong storyline between Stroud and Williams, giving this game national attention. In addition to this being a night game, the uniforms they wear seem to have an impact, at least on the stat sheet.
As the away team, the Bears’ SNF record worsens, as Chicago has dropped nine straight road appearances on Sunday night. In SNF matchups against Houston specifically, the Bears are 0-1, losing a 13-6 matchup in 2012.
As for the orange uniforms, Chicago’s only win came by three points against the Carolina Panthers in 2023. In the four matchups the Bears have played in these uniforms, they’ve been outscored 101-69, making for an uphill battle this week. The Bears haven’t been the most successful team, given the stage they’re playing under on Sunday night.
Bears vs. Texans Predictions
David Bearman (12-4 in Week 1): Texans
Adam Beasley (12-4): Texans
Brian Blewis (9-7): Texans
Tony Catalina (12-4): Texans
Anthony DiBona (9-7): Bears
Mike Gambardella (13-3): Texans
Jay Morrison (12-4): Texans
Dakota Randall (12-4): Texans
Dallas Robinson (11-5): Texans
Ben Rolfe (10-6): Texans
Kyle Soppe (11-5): Texans
Dan Tomaro (12-4): Texans
Mike Wobschall (12-4): Texans
Dakota Zientek (12-4): Bears