Week 16 went about as well as the Chicago Bears could have drawn it up. Not only did they extend their lead atop the NFC North with a comeback victory over the Green Bay Packers, but they also clinched a playoff spot with the Detroit Lions’ loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
With a record of 11-4 going into Week 17, the Bears are guaranteed a spot in the postseason. Their remaining two games will determine whether their appearance comes as a wild-card team or as champions of the NFC North. Though they may currently be slated as the No. 2 seed in the NFC, there is still a chance they could reach the top spot as well.
What Are the Chicago Bears’ Chances of Winning the NFC North?
After Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season, the Bears have a 93.1% chance of winning the NFC North, according to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor. The only other team that still has a chance to win the division is the Packers, who make up the remaining 6.9%.
Chicago has been one of the biggest breakout teams in the NFL in 2025. The installation of Ben Johnson’s system and an improved offensive line have propelled them from 30th in PFSN’s Offense Impact in 2024 to 11th in 2025. Their defense has also improved as of late, as they now rank 19th in Defense Impact after ranking just 28th two weeks ago. They lead the NFL with 31 forced turnovers and also lead the league with a plus-21 turnover differential.
The Bears currently have a 1.5-game lead over the Packers for first place in the NFC North. The only way Green Bay would win the division is if the Bears lose out and the Packers win out. Chicago would clinch the division with one more win in its remaining two games. Likewise, the Packers would eliminate themselves from contention atop the division if they lose one of their two remaining games, regardless of how the Bears finish the year.
What Are the Bears’ Chances of Finishing With the No. 1 Seed in the NFC?
Going into Week 17, PFSN’s Playoff Predictor gives the Bears a 19.8% chance to finish the 2025 regular season as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. This ranks third in the conference behind the first-place Seattle Seahawks and the second-place San Francisco 49ers. The only other team in the NFC with a chance to finish first in the conference is the Los Angeles Rams, who have an 11.5% chance.
Should the Bears win their remaining two games, they would finish the regular season with a 13-4 record. Even if they lose to the Lions in Week 17, a victory over the 49ers would give them the tiebreaker in the battle for first place.
If Chicago finishes with the same record as the Seahawks, the Bears would have the tiebreaker due to a superior conference record. For that to happen, Chicago would need to win out, and Seattle would need to lose one of its two games. This could also occur if the Bears go 1-1 in their remaining games and the Seahawks lose to both the Panthers and the 49ers.
In a scenario where the No. 1 seed in the NFC comes down to a tiebreaker between the Bears and Rams, the Bears would win by default due to a superior conference record.
Chicago has a 7-3 record within the NFC, and Los Angeles has a 6-4 record. Both teams currently have an 11-4 record and play NFC opponents in both of their remaining games. Should the Bears and Rams both win out or both go 1-1, the Bears would maintain the better conference record.
Bears’ Remaining 2025 Schedule
- Week 17: @ San Francisco 49ers (50.5%)
- Week 18: vs. Detroit Lions (54.4%)
PFSN’s Playoff Predictor favors the Bears in each of their two remaining matchups. The 49ers still have a chance to win the NFC West and finish as the No. 1 seed in the conference, so they will have plenty to play for, even though they have already clinched a playoff spot.
The stakes of the Bears’ Week 18 matchup could vary greatly depending on what happens in Week 17. If the Packers win and or the Lions lose that week, Detroit would have nothing to play for but pride in Week 18, as it would be eliminated from playoff contention. Likewise, the Bears could have first place in the NFC North locked up if they beat San Francisco or if the Packers lose to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 17.
If the Bears win in Week 17, they will have a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC regardless of other results. However, if the Bears lose and the Seahawks win that week, Chicago would be eliminated from contention for the top spot. If the Bears enter Week 18 with no chance to obtain the No. 1 seed due to a loss to the 49ers but have the NFC North crown locked up due to a Packers loss, they could rest their starters against Detroit.
