Is this the breakout spot for the Kansas City Chiefs that fantasy football managers have been waiting for? It certainly could be against a Chicago Bears team that seems to be coming apart at the seams. As for Chicago, will the usage of Justin Fields favor his instincts after the comments he made this week?
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Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
- Spread: Chiefs -12.5
- Total: 47.5
- Bears implied points: 17.5
- Chiefs implied points: 30
Might the Chiefs’ defense be solid? I expect this to be a classic “fantasy guy vs. football guy” spot. A spot where Fields looks overmatched and is moving around the pocket like he’s fresh off of the dizzy bat challenge that you sometimes see between innings at a minor league baseball game — and produces enough fantasy points to land in the top 10 at the position.
The passing has not progressed like we had hoped (60.6% completion rate with more interceptions than touchdowns), and there are many advanced stats to suggest a bounceback is imminent. That said, he has over 5.5 points with his legs in 11 of his past 12 games, elevating his floor to a nice level in our game.
With the Bears being huge underdogs and the Chiefs likely to live in the Chicago backfield, this isn’t as bad of a fantasy spot as it is a real-life spot.
With his completion percentage down, his yards per attempt down, and an interception in both games, I could understand someone saying that Mahomes has stumbled out of the gate. Imagine “stumbling” and posting a pair of top-12 finishes at the position (QB5 through two weeks in total points). This dude is different.
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He has at least 30 rushing yards in both games and is averaging 40 passes per game. He’s Patrick Mahomes, so he shouldn’t need a big game to remind us just how good he is, but against a Bears that has struggled to contain Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield through two weeks, a Mahomes takeover week is certainly possible.
I’m not sure how long we get this level of rushing production (he usually saves it for the playoffs), but it’s providing the type of elevator to his floor that is missing from his WR core. Mahomes is locked and loaded in all formats and is a more than reasonable pay-up option in the DFS streets.
We’ve got a multi-faceted problem on our hands in Chicago. This is beginning to look like a committee backfield that lacks volume. That’s what we call a worst-case scenario: you can’t move on from either involved back, but you also can’t play either with any confidence.
Khalil Herbert was one of my guys this preseason, and I still think he is the most valuable RB on this roster, but that’s like picking your dentists — it’s going to be an unpleasant situation, even with the best dentist you could ask for.
Anyway, Herbert has yet to post a top-20 week, and that’s because the opportunity just isn’t there. The Bears have 30 rush attempts from their running backs as a collective this season, a number that wouldn’t even rank in the top 10 if every single one of them went to one guy.
I don’t have a Chicago back in my top 30 this week, and the way this is going, Week 3 probably won’t be the last time I say that.
All summer long, Derek Tate was putting the airs in the tires of Johnson, and it would appear that he was onto something. He scored a touchdown and saw seven targets in the Week 1 blowout loss to the Packers, and with D’Onta Foreman being a healthy scratch in Week 2, Johnson turned his six touches into 42 yards.
Let’s not go overboard. The concerns I raised for Herbert still very much apply to Roschon Johnson. With that said, the Bears league-leading 32.8% running back target share is interesting for Johnson’s long-term profile.
The script did Isiah Pacheco no favors in Week 2, and that’s part of what needs to be considered when plugging in Pacheco. Against the Jags, the Chiefs ran 25 first-half plays: 21 passes, two Mahomes runs, one McKinnon carry, and one Pacheco carry.
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Better times are ahead. First of all, the Chiefs have scored a total of 37 points this season. They got past that number in not one, not two, not three, but four individual games last season. Even with the offensive struggles, Pacheco has been about eight feet away from 12 additional fantasy points (tackled inside the 3-yard line in both games).
I want to bet on this offense, and Pacheco is a good way to do that in the trade market. He’s my RB22 in this spot as a heavy home favorite.
With five touches this season, Jerick McKinnon no longer needs to be rostered. If the usage starts to tick up, we can have that discussion, but much like the first 2.5 months of last season, he’s an afterthought in this offense.
It’s not easy to click on a pass catcher in this offense right now, but I have Moore as a top-25 player this week due to what the team told us early in their Week 2 loss. Each of Fields’ first two passes went to Moore, and they each gained over 30 yards.
The bad is obvious: Fields doesn’t know where the ball is going when it leaves his hand. That downside was realized after the encouraging start, with Moore managing just 40 receiving yards the rest of the way. The Chiefs’ defense has been solid, but with volume on the side of Moore more than normal due to the projected game script, he’s in my lineups this weekend.
Chase Claypool leading the Bears in targets last week (three catches for 36 yards and a TD) was not on my bingo card, and guess what? It won’t be moving forward. I’m skeptical about this offense sustaining two pass catchers, and, at best, Claypool is option No. 3. Don’t overreact to the volume last week.
With a pretty nine-yard TD and a 54-yard gain courtesy of the magic that is Mahomes, Skyy Moore rebounded nicely from the ugly Week 1 performance against the Lions.
I need to see consistency before giving Moore anything more than a passing glance when setting my starting lineup. There is certainly room for a receiver in this offense to carve out a role that matters in fantasy, we just don’t have any tangible proof that any of them are capable of earning targets regularly.
Moore checks in as my third-ranked receiver in Week 3 with that surname and is outside of my top 40.
I’m interested because the Chiefs are interested. They have handed Kadarius Toney the ball in both games this season to go along with five targets. The issue is that his 10 targets have netted 36 receiving yards.
Toney is the owner of a low-aDOT, low-volume role — that’s not fantasy-friendly, I don’t care who the quarterback is. Mahomes hit 11 different players with a pass in the first half, further proof that he has no interest in featuring any WR. He ranks outside of my top 50 at the position this week, a spot I expect him to occupy more often than not.
The talented rookie has yet to reach 30 receiving yards in a game this season, something of an accomplishment in a Mahomes-led offense. I have no doubt that he will deliver a few useful weeks this season and is a dynasty buy, but redraft managers don’t need to be holding out hope for Rashee Rice to break out any time soon.
With 13 targets through two games, Cole Kmet is showing us that he can earn looks, and his 69.2% catch rate proves that his type of route is rare in that Fields can offer catchable targets consistently. If you want to use a pass-heavy projected script as a way to justify Kmet as a GPP punt play, I’m OK with it, but he doesn’t matter in annual leagues.
The GOAT has scored in each of his past four games and looked just fine in his season debut against the Jaguars. The touchdown he scored came on a Mahomes scramble, reminding us that the non-verbal connection between these two is second to none. Travis Kelce should still be viewed as the favorite to lead the position in fantasy points for the season.
Who Should You Start in Week 3?
Should You Start Justin Fields or Dak Prescott?
Sometimes it is important to distance yourself from the game of football when making fantasy football decisions.
You heard me. Turn on the tape of Fields throwing the ball or scroll through social media at the decisions he did (and didn’t) make in the pocket and you’ll never entertain the idea of counting on him. However, remember that his raw athletic ability is rare and that rushing production, for us, adds up in a hurry.
The two designed runs aren’t ideal, but if the Chiefs have him running for his life, that might just be a best-case scenario for fantasy managers. Dak Prescott, on the other hand, is heading a Dallas Cowboys team that is heavily favored and committed to the ground game. Fantasy football is a story dictated by opportunity and I think Fields holds that edge in Week 3.
Should You Start DJ Moore or George Pickens?
We saw George Pickens pick up the heavy lifting on Monday night with Diontae Johnson sidelined (10 targets) and while the quality of target can be an issue (only four catches), the depth of his looks can overcome that.
While Pickens offers some big-play upside, the Bears’ passing game offers just about nothing. My optimism surrounding Fields is based solely on his athletic ability and for those points to add up faster than when he is throwing the ball. Give me Pickens here while fading the Bears’ aerial attack until otherwise noted.
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