Every year, the NFL Draft injects a ton of new talent into the league. Naturally, this shakes up fantasy football values. With the Chicago Bears selecting Luther Burden III in the early second round, what does this mean for the fantasy values of Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, and Rome Odunze?
Fantasy Impact of Bears Drafting Luther Burden III
Ben Johnson’s plan for the Bears is abundantly clear: score a boatload of points. The Bears used two first-round picks on Williams and Odunze last year. This year, they used a first-round pick on Colston Loveland and now a second-rounder on Burden.
Burden is a very polarizing prospect. He had over 50% of his yardage come on screens, which puts him in a group of players who haven’t had much success at the NFL level. On the other hand, his sophomore season was very impressive, with him breaking out before the age of 19. That bodes very well for his future success.
Landing spot was always going to be key here. This one is both good and bad. The good part is that Burden lands with an innovative and offensive-minded head coach who can produce multiple highly effective offensive players. The Detroit Lions had three fantasy-relevant pass catchers last season and two relevant running backs.
The bad is target competition. Burden steps into an offense with a locked-in WR1 in Moore, a former first-rounder in Odunze, and a fresh new first-round TE1 in Loveland.
Last year, Williams was unable to sustain the fantasy values of more than two pass catchers. Now, he’s being asked to support three. Can he do it? We’ll find out. But in the short term, I am significantly lowering my outlook for Burden.
DJ Moore
Last season, Moore took a step back from his career 2023 season, averaging just 14.0 fantasy points per game. However, he did command a 26.6% target share and was the unquestioned WR1 on the team. With Keenan Allen gone, Moore is the most veteran receiver on the team by a wide margin.
Most importantly, Burden and Moore do very different things. The latter lined up outside on over 80% of his routes last season, while Burden projects primarily as a slot receiver.
Williams definitely needs to take a step forward as a player, but it’s highly unlikely that if he can’t sustain everyone’s fantasy values, that Moore would be the one to suffer. Wherever you valued Moore before the Burden pick should be fine.
Rome Odunze
The fact that Odunze has first-round draft capital will give him a longer leash. He will have every opportunity to establish himself as the clear WR2.
With that said, he only earned a 19.2% target share last season and was targeted on a paltry 18.3% of his routes run, averaging a horrific 1.33 yards per route run. If he cannot improve, then there’s certainly a plausible outcome where Burden overtakes Odunze as Chicago’s WR2 over the second half of the season.
Wide receiver is not running back. Coaches don’t decide who gets the ball. As much as the Bears may want Odunze to be a dominant Z, if he’s not getting open, he’s not getting the ball. And if Burden thrives, he can make himself undeniable.
I have not yet fully formulated my opinion on Odunze, but my early lean is that his rookie season simply wasn’t good enough. That combined with adding two more very talented pass catchers has me leaning toward being out on him this season.
Colston Loveland
Just one day after the Bears added the top tight end, they added another wide receiver. Loveland is positioned to start immediately, but he may not continue the trend of rookie TEs being viable fantasy producers.
“Too many mouths to feed” is a cliché, but it’s also true. Is Loveland going to be able to command targets while competing with Moore, Odunze, and Burden? Maybe he will, but we’d certainly rather the target competition be less.
Burden’s addition will prompt me to pull back on my Loveland love a bit.
Caleb Williams
Whether Williams ends up being the guy he was drafted to be hinges on his own progression. He stepped into the greatest situation for a rookie first-round quarterback in NFL history last year and was barely a QB2, averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game. Williams’ rookie season earned him a D+ grade in PFSN’s QB+ metric.
Nevertheless, more weapons who are actually talented are, of course, a good thing. The additions of Loveland and Burden are not great for Moore and Odunze, but they are for Williams.
The sophomore QB is set up for success. The rest is up to him. Given the offensive situation, it’s hard to argue against Williams as a worthy late-round QB2 selection.