We almost had a battle of the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. No. 1 pick Caleb Williams will be there, trying to help the Chicago Bears win for the fifth time in seven games this season. No. 2 pick and Rookie of the Year favorite Jayden Daniels likely will miss the game for the Washington Commanders with a rib injury.
Here are our picks and predictions from Fantasy Analysts Kyle Soppe and Jason Katz and Chief Content Officer David Bearman.
Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of Oct. 25, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated.
Bears (-3, 43.5) at Commanders Odds and Betting Lines, 4:25 p.m. ET
Soppe: Patience. We as a society lack it, and we are no different in the betting space. Bears rookie QB Williams was a mess to open his career, and that might be a disservice to the word “mess.”
Weeks 1-3:
- 59.3% completion percentage
- 5.3 yards per attempt
- 65.3 passer rating
- 13.7 pressure passer rating
- 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate
Williams’ struggles were magnified by Daniels’ immediate success (through those three weeks, Williams had the fourth-lowest passer rating in the NFL while Daniels had the fourth-highest). That, naturally, resulted in plenty of people writing him off as an impact player in 2024.
But what’s this? A player who can develop with time?
Weeks 4-6:
- 74.1% completion percentage
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 122.8 passer rating
- 109.6 pressure passer rating
- 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate
Since 2021, rookie quarterbacks have a winning ATS record as a road favorite (8-7), but let’s get creative. In seven of those covers, under tickets cash. I don’t want Williams to ruin my ticket in a game supporting him, so I’m isolating the Commanders’ team total to leverage that trend.
SGP: Bears ML with Commanders under 21 points
Stats and Insights: Fantasy, Betting, and Other Notes
Chicago Bears
Team: The Bears give away just one first down via penalty per game this season (tied for the third-fewest; only the Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers allow fewer).
QB: Williams took a few games to look like the prodigy he was sold as, but we are moving in that direction:
Weeks 1-3:
- 59.3% completion percentage
- 5.3 yards per attempt
- 65.3 passer rating
- 13.7 pressure passer rating
- 0.5 touchdown-to-interception rate
Weeks 4-6:
- 74.1% completion percentage
- 8.5 yards per attempt
- 122.8 passer rating
- 109.6 pressure passer rating
- 7.0 touchdown-to-interception rate
👑 @ChicagoBears QB1 Caleb Williams has been voted 2024 NFL London Games MVP! 🏈
The rookie threw FOUR touchdowns in the Bears win at @SpursStadium 👏 https://t.co/y4bGQTSwhz pic.twitter.com/FpJvtENycw
— NFL UK & Ireland (@NFLUKIRE) October 25, 2024
Offense: The scheming hasn’t been effective for the Bears — only the Cleveland Browns are averaging fewer yards per play in first quarters than Chicago this season.
Defense: The Bears are the only defense in the league this season to have allowed a touchdown to the slot.
Fantasy: There is one running back who has strung together three straight top-six finishes at the position this season, and his name is D’Andre Swift.
Betting: The Bears are coming off their bye and have seen five of their past six games on extra rest go under the total (average difference to the projected total: -5.3 points).
Washington Commanders
Team: The Commanders lead the NFL with a +66 point differential. It’s Washington’s best point differential through seven games since 1991, the season of their last Super Bowl title.
QB: Daniels is averaging 8.4 yards per pass this season, a rate only Brock Purdy topped in 2023.
Offense: Last week was the third time the Commanders have posted at least a 52% success rate in a game this season. The rest of the NFL has done that six times combined, and no team has done it more than once.
Defense: The Commanders allow 9.4 yards per fourth-quarter pass, the second-most in the league (Jacksonville Jaguars).
Fantasy: Brian Robinson Jr. has been a top-25 running back in every game he has played this season, but be careful — he’s gone consecutive games without a target and four straight without a 20-yard rush.
Betting: When rookie QBs oppose one another, the home team has covered six of the past eight.