Cincinnati Bengals’ RB Chase Brown did not see much action as a rookie but was effective in his limited time on the field. With Joe Mixon gone, Brown’s role should increase in his sophomore season. Is he someone fantasy football managers should look to take late in Best Ball drafts?
Chase Brown’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Mixon fantasy managers may have a bit of a warped perception as to how frequently Brown was used last season. After barely playing Weeks 1-6, Brown missed the next month with a hamstring strain. Upon his return, the Bengals immediately installed him as the team’s RB2. But he wasn’t nearly as active as you might remember.
I say this because I rostered Mixon in multiple leagues, and it felt as though Brown was on the field more than he was. Brown did not play more than 28% of the snaps in a single game. The reason it felt greater is because when Brown was out there, he was getting the ball.
CHASE IS ON THE CASE❕#Bengals rookie RB Chase Brown scores his first #NFL touchdown 💨#RuleTheJungle
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 10, 2023
Brown totaled 61 yards on nine carries in Week 12, and then 105 yards on 11 touches in Week 13. While that performance didn’t necessarily earn him more work, it certainly resonated with coaches and likely contributed to why the team was willing to move on from Mixon this year.
Brown averaged 5.8 yards per touch, and 9.1% of his carries went for 15+ yards. He only had 44 carries on the season. He displayed explosiveness and strong burst. Brown gets to play on a team with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins. There’s definitely fantasy potential here.
At the same time, what exactly is Brown’s projected role? We think it will be the passing-down job. But Brown doesn’t have a history of receiving work. His best season college target share was 7.6%, and that was in his fifth-year senior season. He’ll probably be in that role, but I doubt it will be exclusive. Zack Moss will play on some passing downs as well.
Should You Draft Brown in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
I wanted to like Brown this season. The problem is he’s being drafted as a top-36 running back. While he will see more work than last season, I believe Moss will not just be the RB1, but handle almost as much work as Mixon did. Essentially, I don’t see Brown’s workload increasing by a meaningful amount.
With that said, there’s still value in Brown. He has talent and there’s upside if Moss were to go down. But the gap between Moss and Brown is currently just three spots. That’s not enough.
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In managed leagues, fantasy managers can justify possibly drafting both of them, if your league is deep enough. In Best Ball, that’s too negative EV of a strategy. Therefore, if I’m taking one of them, it’s going to be Moss.