Chase Brown Fantasy Projections: Should You Draft Brown in Fantasy This Year?

    Chase Brown is a Day 3 draft pick in an ideal landing spot, but what are his fantasy projections in 2023, and should you draft him at his ADP?

    As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Cincinnati Bengals RB Chase Brown’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.

    Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.

    Chase Brown’s 2023 Fantasy Projection

    Brown was selected with the No. 163 pick, right between Colts TE Will Mallory and Vikings QB Jaren Hall. Let’s call this part of the draft “Old Man Corner” because Brown is already 23 years old, Mallory turned 24 in June, and Hall turned 25 in March.

    Whatever talent these players possess, every other team passed on them (and other “chronologically advanced” players) in part because of their relatively limited development period.

    It’s no coincidence that the first 18 draft picks last year were players entering their age-21 or age-22 seasons, as well as 35 of the first 38 picks the year before. This is pretty typical, with few exceptions.

    So we should not assume that Brown is merely a throwaway Day 3 running back. And regardless, plenty of Day 3 RBs have shined in recent years, including Isiah Pacheco, Tyler Allgeier, and Elijah Mitchell.

    Although Brown isn’t flashy, he has the size and strength to succeed at the professional level. He’s also coming off a campaign where he rushed 328 times and caught 27 passes. Nine of his last 12 rushing scores came inside the opposing 10-yard line. In other words, he’s capable of serving as the Bengals’ bell cow if needed.

    “If needed” is key. Joe Mixon has slowed considerably since the middle of the 2021 campaign. In his last 400 rushing attempts, he’s averaged only 3.8 yards. That’s subpar any way you slice it, and is all more notable when guys like Samaje Perine run more efficiently.

    At minimum, Brown might wallow in obscurity as a rookie. That’s quite a low floor. But at most, he could earn some starts if the overworked Mixon (an incredible 736 touches in the last two years) gets hurt.

    Behind Mixon sits Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans. Neither has demonstrated that they can fill the gaping hole left by Perine’s offseason departure. There’s an opening for Brown to do some damage. He’s the ultimate low-risk/high-reward running back.

    Should You Draft Chase Brown This Year?

    Underdog Fantasy currently has Brown with an ADP of RB62. Our PFN Consensus Rankings list the rookie at RB75. But let’s toss his ADP out the window because it doesn’t tell us much, except where managers are typically snagging him. There’s so much more to assess.

    Some managers (like me) will reach early for a potential handcuff, especially if we’ve already drafted the starter. Other managers view these pickups as wastes until/unless the starter goes down, in which case they might go all-in on the waiver wire (if the backup is still available).

    If you’re the type of manager who likes to collect handcuffs, hoping for a lottery ticket, then Brown is one of the best rookies to take a chance on. His floor is probably around RB80 or RB90. He’s not assured of anything. But if he can earn two or three starts and pull in double-digit points in each, then he’s at least a small steal at his current market price.

    Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast!

    Listen to the PFN Inside Access Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review!

    Related Articles