If you’re playing a Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 7, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Every NFL season, each team’s fortunes pivot on a handful of plays. Some pivots reverse course, leading down-and-out franchises into the promised land of the postseason. Other reverses — like the 7-0 Cardinals last year — stem from a receiver not turning around to catch a ball in the end zone.
Of course, we can’t say for sure “what might have happened” if things had played out differently. But in the Chargers’ case, we’ve seen three dramatic pivots. Up 17-7 in the third quarter against the Chiefs in Week 2, they gave up a closely contested 41-yard TD pass on 3rd-and-10 to the little-used Justin Watson.
The following quarter, Herbert sustained a rib injury that rendered him less-than-okay the rest of the game and into the following week’s blowout loss to the Jaguars.
Then, sitting at 1-2, with their star receiver Keenan Allen sidelined, they converted a gutsy 4th-and-2 at their own 43 to help hold off the Texans and then gambled some more in a come-from-behind victory over the Browns before coming back three times on Monday night to defeat the Broncos.
The result is a 4-2 Chargers squad that’s battle-tested and getting healthier by the day. Ignore Herbert’s muted performance against Denver’s elite pass defense. Facing Seattle, we can be confident about him, Austin Ekeler, and at least one of their receivers — and perhaps two if Joshua Palmer is somehow still cheap enough.
How good is Seattle? They beat Arizona last weekend despite DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett combining for only four catches and 51 scoreless yards. That’s quite a feat for a team that wasn’t expected to enter Week 7 tied for the NFC West lead.
Kenneth Walker III must be a strong DFS candidate, regardless of his price. His three-down-back abilities should align nicely with the Chargers defense allowing 5.6 yards-per-carry — second-worst in the NFL. But can we trust Geno Smith through the air? That depends partly on how we think this game will flow.
If L.A. forces Seattle into catch-up mode by halftime, then we might lean a little more into a Metcalf or Lockett rebound performance. Or we could aim cheaper with Noah Fant (12 targets in his last two games). This remains a top-heavy offense, with only five or six (if we include the TD-dependent Will Dissly) reasonable DFS options.
Top DFS Lineup for Chargers vs. Seahawks
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
As of publishing time on Friday morning, there are still some potential moving parts. So we’ll set up several injury-related contingencies, depending on how things look Sunday morning.
For now, here are the automatic selections, beginning with Ekeler ($11,200 normally, $16,800 as Captain) in our Captain slot. This game was made for him. If he flops, there’s nothing we can do about it. Based on probabilities, he’s the best fit.
Next, we’ll lock in Herbert ($10,800) and Walker ($8,200). Nothing shocking. Two expensive, high-ceiling players. Barring something unforeseen, they’ll get the job done. And if they’re like me, they’ll do it with a smile.
There’s $14,200 remaining for three slots. I have five scenarios depending on playing status. Are you ready? OK, I’ll wait.
Ready now? Great.
Scenario No. 1: Keenan Allen, Gerald Everett, and Donald Parham Jr. are out. If LA is missing its de facto No. 1 WR along with its top two TEs, then I’d advise starting Mike Williams ($9,000), Noah Fant ($5,000), and everyone’s favorite McKitty, Tre’ McKitty ($200). (10/22/22 Update — No longer applicable. Everett is expected to start.)
Scenario No. 2: Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett are out. This would make Parham the Chargers’ lead active TE. I’d start him ($2,200), Williams, and Marquise Goodwin ($1,200) over McKitty. (10/22/22 Update — No longer applicable. Everett is expected to start.)
Scenario No. 3: Keenan Allen is out. This would make Everett ($5,600 normally, $8,400 as Captain) the Chargers’ lead active TE. We couldn’t afford him and Williams unless we moved Everett into the Captain slot. So let’s do that, shifting Ekeler into a regular Flex spot. With our remaining funds, we’d secure Goodwin and Geno Smith ($10,000).
Scenario No. 4: Gerald Everett is out. I wouldn’t want to choose between the expensive Allen and the similarly expensive Williams. It’s a toss-up whether one or the other could come up big. Maybe both could, but more likely not. So I’d suggest Parham, Goodwin, and Smith ($10,000). (10/22/22 Update — No longer applicable. Everett is expected to start.)
Scenario No. 5: All previously mentioned Chargers starters are active. A fully charged LA offense could roll over even this surprisingly high-performing Seattle team. That might force Walker to the sidelines for much of the second half as Smith tries to rally his squad through the air.
So first, I’d replace Walker with Smith. Then with our regular three slots to fill, we’ll add Everett, Fant, and Goodwin. (10/22/22 Update — No longer applicable. Parham is out.)
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