The Los Angeles Chargers will face the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Chargers skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 12 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Justin Herbert, QB
The development of this Chargers team has been a great story to track, and Justin Herbert’s fantasy stock has been soaring as a result. The fifth-year signal-caller has posted four straight QB1 finishes as a result of him doing a bit of everything.
Not only has Herbert not thrown an interception since Week 2, allowing him to stay on the field and produce, but he’s cleared 4.5 fantasy points on the ground in three of the last four games, rush attempts that have been a mix of design and determination. He’s checking every box you could ask for, and this matchup only serves as an amplifier.
During this four-game run, Herbert has thrown a touchdown on 16.7% of his deep passes, a massive step forward from the 4.9% rate he posted over his 24 games prior. That’s a great trend by itself, as it provides the ability to overcome minor slumps like what we saw on Sunday night. But in this matchup, it’s gold.
The Ravens cough up the fourth-most yards per deep pass attempt this season, and with a total hovering around 50 points, it’s not hard to envision a game that much resembles Week 11’s 34-27 win over the Bengals.
The schedule toughens at the wrong time for fantasy managers (Chiefs in Week 14 and Broncos in Week 16), but in the scope of this week, you should feel great about having a Monday night hammer.
Gus Edwards, RB
Gus Edwards has totaled 16 touches in his two games back from injury, but his value was always going to come via the touchdown plunges — and that role is not available at the moment.
Not only has J.K. Dobbins punched in five scores over his past four games, but Jim Harbaugh has clearly given Justin Herbert the green light to run, further removing touch equity for Los Angeles’ RB2.
Edwards is a version of Austin Ekeler but without the pass-catching prowess. Not attractive to you? That’s because it shouldn’t be. Edwards’ lack of versatility this season (1.8% of touches have been receptions) is even more glaring than in years past (4.1%), making him a name you can leave on your wire.
J.K. Dobbins, RB
Four players this season have four games in which they did all of the following: scored a rushing touchdown, caught a pass, and averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and J.K. Dobbins all have four such games.
Not too shabby.
The game-winning touchdown last week was encouraging, but it does seem like Jim Harbaugh wants to put his fate in the hands of Justin Herbert (three straight games with no more than 15 carries for Dobbins), and with Gus Edwards healthy, this run game could fall by the wayside at the wrong time.
We’ve seen a floor present itself with Dobbins having four finishes outside of the top 25, and a fifth is very possible in this matchup against the top rush defense by EPA. He currently sits as my RB24 this week with the hope being that the overall success of this offense can put Dobbins in a position to produce viable numbers, even if inefficiently.
Joshua Palmer, WR
Joshua Palmer has reached double figures in PPR formats just twice this season and has yet to earn more than five targets in a game. In the shootout with the Bengals last week, he wasn’t a part of where this offense wanted to go — 69.7% of Justin Herbert’s targets went to one of three players (Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, or Will Dissly).
There isn’t much immediate competition for WR3 targets in the Chargers’ offense, but this remains a team that wants to work through the ground when possible. With Gus Edwards healthy and Dissly’s role expanding, the opportunity count is drying up quickly.
I trust Herbert enough to hold onto Palmer right now, but he’s not untouchable. This profile is weak at best based on the development of the pieces around him and the direction of this offense philosophically.
Ladd McConkey, WR
Updated at 7:00 PM ET on Sunday, December 8
McConkey is inactive for tonight's game.
Ladd McConkey is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season, an effort that saw him make clutch plays left and right. In the win over the Bengals, he lined up in the slot a season-high 88.9% of the time, something that I love to see in a macro sense.
In the micro, not so much. The Ravens are much better against the slot (11th in slot passer rating) than the perimeter (23rd). That doesn’t mean that McConkey can’t produce, it’s just worth noting as you look to evaluate his floor case. The ceiling case has been evident — here’s a snapshot as to where he stands at the position in PPR PPG since Week 8.
13. Ladd McConkey: 16.5
14. George Pickens: 16.3
15. Justin Jefferson: 16.3
16. Puka Nacua: 16.1
Do I think he’s swimming in those waters for the remainder of the season? I do not, but with this offense maturing, McConkey is a legitimate threat to lead this rookie receiver class in scoring the rest of the way and is deserving of your trust on a consistent basis.
Quentin Johnston, WR
On the surface, Quentin Johnston serves as a good reminder that development isn’t linear, and outwardly dismissing a player with pedigree after one poor season is dangerous. He’s been a top-40 receiver in five of his past seven games, a level of production that we would have scoffed at three months ago.
Johnston has established himself as a viable deep threat (15.0-yard aDOT) in an offense that is beginning to open up, a valuable spot to be in this specific matchup. Here are the players to score 10+ points against Baltimore in a game this season solely on passes thrown at least 15 yards down the field:
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 10): 34 deep points
- Ja’Marr Chase (Week 5): 13.9
- KaVontae Turpin (Week 3): 11.9
- Davante Adams (Week 2): 11.5
- Courtland Sutton (Week 9): 11.5
- Jalen Tolbert (Week 3): 11.4
- Cedric Tillman (Week 8): 10.8
- Elijah Moore (Week 8): 10.7
- Xavier Worthy (Week 1): 10.5
He can produce in this spot, without a doubt. But for all the nice things I just said about him, let’s not overreact and force him into lineups.
He still owns a 59.5% catch rate this season, and while his scoring on 27.3% of his receptions has resulted in nice past production, projecting such a bonkers rate to sustain is unwise (for reference, Ja’Marr Chase leads the league in TD receptions and has scored on 16.4% of his catches this season).
There’s a time and a place for Johnston. If you’re an underdog and want some Monday night upside, go for it. But if your matchup is projected to be a close one, this is the type of profile I find myself avoiding more often than not, something that requires discipline in this sort of matchup.
Johnston is my WR34 this week.