Following Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Tulane Green Wave have a chance to make the CFB Playoff field. Where do they stand in the hunt to make the 12-team bracket, and can they compete for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Tulane’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Tulane’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Tulane a 61.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Tulane is currently ranked 20th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall and 7-1 in conference play.
The Green Wave lost 45-10 to Ole Miss earlier in the year, and suffered one setback in conference play against UTSA, but overall, Tulane has been the Group of Six model of consistency — not just in 2025, but year over year.
Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has already accepted an offer to become the next head coach of the Florida Gators following Billy Napier’s dismissal, but Sumrall isn’t leaving his team in the midst of a potential playoff run. He’ll remain on the sidelines for Tulane in the American Conference Championship, as will Eric Morris for North Texas.
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The PFSN College FPM gives Tulane a 61.2% chance of beating North Texas in the American Conference title game, and thus making the CFB Playoffs. If the Green Wave come out on top over the Mean Green, they’ll earn either the 11-seed or 12-seed in the CFB Playoff field.
PFSN’s College FPM gives Tulane a 22% chance of earning the 11-seed and a 39.2% chance of earning the 12-seed. For Tulane to earn the 11-seed instead of the 12-seed, Duke would have to beat Virginia in the ACC Championship game.
If Tulane gets the 11-seed, they could play either Georgia, Ole Miss, or Texas A&M in the 6-11 matchup. If Tulane gets the 12-seed, they’d likely face one of Oregon, Ole Miss, or Alabama. A rematch with Ole Miss is reasonably likely, but Tulane has to take care of business in the American Conference Championship first.
Statistically, Tulane has been a relatively middle-of-the-road team in 2025, but the addition of Jake Retzlaff at quarterback has been welcome after Darian Mensah’s offseason departure. Meanwhile, on defense, stars like Santana Hopper and Jaheim Johnson have helped to generate momentum-changing plays when needed.
Our simulations give Tulane a 3.3% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.1% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.3% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
