Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Texas Tech Red Raiders had the inside track to the Big 12 Championship Game. How did Friday night’s two-game Big 12 slate impact those scenarios for Joey McGuire’s team?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Texas Tech’s chances of making it to the Big 12 Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Texas Tech’s Big 12 Championship Game Chances
After the Arizona State Sun Devils lost to the Arizona Wildcats in the Duel in the Desert, Texas Tech can no longer be supplanted from the Big 12 Championship Game. The Red Raiders are headed to Arlington to take on the BYU Cougars in a rematch of their regular-season slugfest.
However, they’ll still want to end the season strong against the West Virginia Mountaineers with more than the Big 12 at stake.
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Thankfully, Texas Tech has an almost 75% chance of coming away with the victory against a volatile West Virginia team and it’s hard to imagine McGuire’s squad coming out flat.
West Virginia has very little to play for, already being out of bowl contention. However, just a couple weeks ago, West Virginia played Arizona State — the lone team to beat the Red Raiders this season — very close in a 23-25 loss.
What are Texas Tech’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Texas Tech’s best chance of making the CFB Playoff is as an automatic bid winner.
The PFSN College FPM gives Texas Tech a 75.4% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 60.2% chance of winning the Big 12 Championship. That leaves a 15.2% chance of Texas Tech being an At-Large bid.
Texas Tech is currently ranked fifth in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They currently have strong positioning, which they can maintain with a win against West Virginia. However, their one loss puts them in a precarious spot, where chaos could negatively impact them if they don’t win out.
If Texas Tech loses the Big 12 Championship, a record of 11-2 with a title loss would likely be strong enough to earn CFB Playoff real estate in an At-Large scenario, but Texas Tech would likely have to play in the first weekend.
Our simulations also give Texas Tech a 35.5% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 15.4% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 7.4% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.