Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the SMU Mustangs are one of the front-runners to make the ACC Championship Game, but there’s still work to be done before they can celebrate a chance for vengeance after last year’s title loss.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine SMU’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
SMU’s ACC Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gives SMU a 70.9% chance of playing in the ACC Championship game. Their only remaining conference game is against the California Golden Bears (6-5, 3-4).
SMU is in a “win-and-in” situation in Week 14. If the Mustangs beat the Golden Bears, they clinch one of the two spots in the ACC Championship game, regardless of other outcomes.
If SMU loses, their fate is out of their hands. They’d need Wake Forest to beat Duke at the very least, but they’d lose the tiebreaker against Georgia Tech due to common opponents, and Virginia and Pittsburgh would each seal out SMU with wins.
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Thus, for SMU, the path forward is simple. If they win a very winnable game against California, they’re in the ACC Championship. If they lose that game with so much on the line, then perhaps they deserve to be tangled and overwhelmed by the ACC chaos.
What are SMU’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. SMU can only make the CFB Playoffs by winning the ACC Championship.
The PFSN College FPM gives SMU a 34.8% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 34.7% chance of winning the ACC Championship. That reinforces the reality that it’s ACC title or bust for the Mustangs, if they want to have an extended postseason stay.
SMU is currently ranked 21st in the CFP Selection Committee rankings. They’re far out of At-Large territory and can’t move the needle with their remaining regular-season action. Without an ACC Championship victory, the Mustangs are locked out of the CFB Playoffs — but if they win out and win the title, they’re in the field.
Our simulations also give SMU a 3.65% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 1.23% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.41% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.
