Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Pittsburgh Panthers are one of three one-loss teams at the top of the ACC, but they still need a specific outcome to come out on top in the conference and make the ACC Championship game. Did they achieve that against Miami? Let’s find out.
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Pittsburgh’s chances of making it to the ACC Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Pittsburgh’s ACC Championship Game Chances
Entering Week 14, PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Pittsburgh a 22.4% chance of playing in the ACC Championship game.
Despite being on a level playing field with SMU and Virginia, Pittsburgh was third in line for ACC Championship Game real estate. This is because Pittsburgh has a loss to Louisville — a team that both SMU and Virginia have beaten.
As a result, SMU and Virginia win the common opponents tiebreaker over Pittsburgh in a three-way tie.
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That meant that the path to the ACC Championship was clear for Pittsburgh. They needed to beat 12th-ranked Miami in Week 14, and even then, they needed one of SMU or Virginia to lose their respective games.
Sadly for the Panthers, Pitt couldn’t uphold their end of the bargain, falling to a significant defeat against Miami. As such, there is no path to the ACC Championship Game for Pat Narduzzi’s team. They are, however, bowl eligible.
What are Pittsburgh’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Entering Week 14 as the 22nd-ranked team in the country, Pittsburgh could only make the CFB Playoffs by winning the ACC Championship. They were too far out of “At-Large” range.
Now that they are eliminated from the ACC Championship Game race, the Panthers have a 0% chance of making it to the College Football Playoff. Previously, he PFSN College FPM gives Pittsburgh a 10.2% chance of making the College Football Playoff, and a 10.2% chance of winning the ACC Championship.
Our simulations also gave Pittsburgh a 0.93% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, a 0.27% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 0.09% chance of winning the CFP National Championship. Now, all those numbers read 0%.