Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Oklahoma Sooners are in position to make the CFB Playoffs, but they need to seal the deal. What is Oklahoma’s path to making the 12-team bracket and competing for a National Championship?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Oklahoma’s chances of playing in the CFB Playoff.
What are Oklahoma’s CFB Playoff Chances?
The PFSN College FPM gives Oklahoma a 100% chance of making the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma is currently ranked eighth in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, sitting at 10-2 overall and 6-2 in conference play.
The Sooners and John Mateer have three projected automatic bids ranked ahead of them — from the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12, respectively — but they’re the fifth-ranked At-Large team in the current projection.
Past the five automatic bids, only seven At-Large teams make the CFB Playoffs. Using current seeding and not conference championship winners for the moment, the current projected At-Large teams would be Indiana, Georgia, Oregon, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and Alabama.
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Oklahoma is the fourth SEC team in the pecking order — sitting behind Texas A&M, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Losses to Texas and Ole Miss at first appeared to be consequential for Oklahoma’s CFB Playoff hopes, but the Sooners turned the tide with a surprise victory against Alabama and a steely triumph against Tennessee at Rocky Top.
Now, the Sooners are in an enviable position. Though they are locked out of the SEC Championship game due to having two losses, they sealed their status as a College Football Playoff outfit with a tight, close-fought victory over the LSU Tigers in Norman.
A loss to LSU would have blown the race for the College Football Playoff wide open. Ironically, it is bitter rival Texas that is most impacted by the events that unfolded in Norman today.
An Oklahoma loss would have opened the door for an At-Large bid for the Longhorns, whereas the win for the Sooners is likely to box out Steve Sarkisian’s team from a spot in the 12-team show.
The win also had a significant impact on how the College Football Playoff path could unfold for the Sooners.
Our simulations give Oklahoma a 19.0% chance of playing in the CFP semifinals, an 8.3% chance of playing in the CFP National Championship Game, and a 3.5% chance of winning the CFP National Championship.