Entering Week 14 of the 2025 College Football season, the Michigan Wolverines’ Big Ten Championship and CFB Playoff hopes were hanging by a thread — but there was still an outcome where Sherrone Moore’s squad beat the odds. Did the Michigan men match up to the task or freeze in the snow?
With the use of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine Michigan’s chances of making it to the Big Ten Championship Game and playing in the CFB Playoff.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
It was always going to be an uphill battle for Michigan. PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Michigan a 2.7% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship game entering their rival game with the Ohio State Buckeyes.
After 11 games, their chances of making it to Indianapolis all came down to this. The undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes — who had dominated all year, and have averaged a margin of victory of over 30 points — traveling to Ann Arbor to take on the 9-2 Wolverines.
MORE: Strength of Schedule for All 136 FBS College Football Teams
With a victory and an Oregon loss, Michigan would have been in the Big Ten Championship Game. Last season, they took down the Buckeyes without a similar incentive. The stage was set.
However, despite taking an early lead, the Wolverines were never a match for the Buckeyes. Ohio State were dominant, booking their spot in the Big Ten Championship Game and consigning their bitter rival to a bowl berth.
What are Michigan’s Playoff Chances?
There are two routes into the College Football Playoff for teams: win their conference championship game or be an at-large team. Entering Week 14, Michigan still had a small percentage chance to make it in either category.
The PFSN College FPM gave Michigan an 8.3% chance of making the College Football Playoff, but just a 0.7% chance of winning the Big Ten Championship. That left a 7.6% chance of Michigan being an At-Large bid.
However, the loss to Ohio State resets those figures to 0%.
Michigan was ranked 15th in the CFP Selection Committee rankings, well outside of At-Large territory. The loss to the No. 1-ranked team in the country might not move them too far down the pecking order, but the Texas Longhorns should leapfrog them, with other teams also still in the hunt and ready to move.