Entering Week 14, the Big Ten Championship Game scenarios still had four potential teams that could fill the two available spots in Indianapolis. How did that situation change as the final weekend of the 2025 college football regular season unfolded?
With the help of PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter and the College Football Playoff Predictor, let’s examine who is still in the mix and what their chances are of making it to the postseason.
Which Teams Are Still Competing to Play in the Big Ten Championship Game?
After the Indiana vs. Purdue matchup on Black Friday, let’s take a look at the teams who are still in the mix, and their respective Big Ten Conference Game chances:
- Indiana (12-0, 9-0): 100%
- Ohio State (12-0, 9-0): 100.0%
These are the remaining games in the Big Ten in 2025:
- Washington vs. Oregon
Saturday, November 29 at 3:30 p.m. ET
Indiana’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
Indiana entered Week 14 with the easiest path forward to the Big Ten Championship game, and the Hoosiers didn’t disappoint. Curt Cignetti’s team turned over a hapless Boilermakers team in dominant fashion, as has been the case for most of this season, and booked their place in the title game without having to rely on anybody else or wait on any other results.
Achieving a perfect 9-0 record in the Big Ten, they can’t be caught by anyone, largely thanks to their win over the Oregon Ducks earlier in the season, a result that had given them an element of comfort entering Week 14. Holding a tiebreaker over Dan Lanning’s team had meant they could lose and not be eliminated, but ultimately, it didn’t come to that.
Ohio State’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
Ohio State entered Week 14 with a 77.3% chance of making the Big Ten Championship game. However, the outcome was never really in any doubt as Ryan Day’s team took care of business in dominant style, beating their bitter rivalry Michigan Wolverines in their own Big House.
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As such, the Buckeyes ended the 2025 college football regular season with a perfect 12-0 overall record, and an undefeated 9-0 record in Big Ten conference play. They can’t be caught by any team playing throughout the rest of Week 14, booking a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game. They’ll take on the Indiana Hoosiers, who also finished undefeated in the conference.
Oregon’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Oregon a 19.5% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game entering Week 14. Their remaining conference game is at Washington, which they have to win to stand a chance of playing in Indianapolis. The PFSN College FPM gives them a 61.8% chance of winning that game.
Oregon will face a Washington team close to full strength, after Jonah Coleman and Tacario Davis fended off injuries to play in Week 13 — and Iapani Laloulu’s status is also up in the air for the Ducks.
That said, the Ducks were missing two of their top receiving options against ranked USC, and Dante Moore and Dan Lanning still led them to a 42-27 victory. Oregon is favored as they should be against Washington, but Demond Williams and Denzel Boston could cook up an improbable upset.
Even if Oregon wins, they needed Ohio State to lose to make the Big Ten Championship game, and that scenario never played out for Dan Lanning’s team in Week 14. The Ducks have, however, still got the College Football Playoff very much in their sights.
Michigan’s Big Ten Championship Game Chances
PFSN’s College Football Playoff Meter gave Michigan a 3.2% chance of playing in the Big Ten Championship Game entering Week 14. However, after losing to Ohio State on Saturday afternoon, the Wolverines now have zero chance of playing in Indianapolis. Furthermore, their College Football Playoff hopes took a substantial hit and are essentially eliminated.
Big Ten Two-Team Tiebreakers
If two teams are tied for first place in the standings, they will both participate in the Championship Game. However, the tiebreaking procedure outlined below will be used to determine which team is considered the home team and which is considered the road team.
In the event of a tie for second place in the standings, the following process will be followed to decide who will play in the Big Ten Championship Game.
1) The winner of any head-to-head matchup between the two teams (if applicable).
2) Win percentage against common opponents within the conference.
3) Win percentage against common opponents based on the order of finish. This tiebreaker examines each opponent individually, progressing from top to bottom in the table, to identify a common opponent where one team has a superior result to the other.
MORE: Big 12 Championship Game Scenarios: Latest Updates and Chances During Week 14
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) The highest ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season
6) Random draw
This two-team tiebreaker was used in 2024 to determine the opponent for Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State and Indiana both finished with 8-1 conference records.
The two teams did not play each other, and both lost their only game to Ohio State, resulting in an equal record against common conference opponents (both 4-1). Penn State advanced to the Big Ten Championship Game thanks to a superior record of its conference opponents (33-48 vs. 28-53).
Big Ten Three (or More) Team Tiebreakers
If, after any step in the following procedure, one or two teams are either superior or inferior to the others, they are removed from the tiebreaking procedure, and the remaining teams either go to the two-team tiebreaker or return to the start of the three-team tiebreaking procedure.
1) If all teams played each other, then the records for those teams in those games would be compared.
2) If all the teams did not play each other, but one team either defeated or was defeated by ALL the other teams, they shall be removed from the tiebreaking procedure.
3) Winning percentage of all teams against common conference opponents among all the teams involved in the tie.
4) The combined record of all conference opponents for each team. If, for any reason, one team has played fewer than nine conference games, the winning percentage will be used as opposed to the record.
5) Each team’s ranking by SportsSource Analytics’ Team Rating Score following the regular season.
6) Random draw.