The Carolina Panthers face off against the New Orleans Saints in a mid-afternoon showdown in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The Panthers travel to the Big Easy with a drive to redeem themselves after a league-worst 2023 while the Saints hope to break through the wall of mediocrity that has plagued them since the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era’s resolution.
For all information NFL betting and fantasy football related, here is a one-stop shop for the Panthers at Saints season-opening matchup.
Panthers at Saints Odds, Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets
All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook are correct as of Sept. 7.
- Moneyline: Panthers +160, Saints -192
- Total: 41.5
The Panthers are the 31st-ranked team in Will Blackmon’s power rankings, yet I have them pulling off the Week 1 upset here.
With the offseason additions on offense, particularly at wide receiver and on the offensive line, I’m expecting a jump from Bryce Young this season under first-year head coach Dave Canales. Considering the success Canales had in revitalizing Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield’s careers, it shouldn’t be too surprising to see him have similar results with a former No. 1 overall pick.
The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, are the definition of mediocrity, particularly at quarterback with Derek Carr. In his career, Carr is just 8-18 ATS when favored by more than a field goal, and this will be his first start under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak.
While the Saints’ offense should take strides from last season in Kubiak’s system after having the lowest play-action rate last season (nearly 6% lower than average), I think there will be some growing pains, as Carr has struggled historically in adjusting to new offenses.
Furthermore, the Saints’ 30th-ranked offensive line could have problems going against a Panthers pass rush led by Derrick Brown and Jadeveon Clowney.
Prediction: Panthers 21, Saints 16
Pick: Panthers +160
Panthers at Saints Schedule, Start Time, and More
- Start time: Sunday, Sept. 8, 2024, 1 p.m. ET
- Channel: Fox
- Live stream options: Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, FOX NOW
- Radio Stations: 99.7 The Fox, WWL 870 AM & 105.3 FM
- Starting QBs: Bryce Young, Derek Carr
The next divisional game on the Week 1 NFL games today schedule sees the Saints hosting the Panthers at Caesars Superdome. The Panthers have hit a rut after losing franchise quarterback Cam Newton in 2019. Carolina has struggled mightily in the years since with four different head coaches and three interim head coaches. The latest, Canales, takes over a roster in disarray and needs an overhaul to support second-year QB and 2023 first-overall pick Bryce Young after an awful rookie year.
The Panthers brought in former Steeler Diontae Johnson and drafted Xavier Legette in the first round to strengthen the WR core. They double-dipped on offensive draft picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, selecting Jonathon Brooks in the second round. While he won’t start the season due to an ACL injury suffered last season, the Panthers are anxious to see how the rookie RB will affect both the rushing and passing attacks.
The Panthers are slowly improving their roster, but they are still a bit away from competing in the NFC South, let alone becoming a playoff contender. The 2024 season is all about improvement, and who knows — maybe Canales can spoil his division rivals’ seasons with a few upsets.
As for the Saints, HC Dennis Allen and QB Derek Carr might as well be playing for their jobs this season. Since Sean Payton and Drew Brees left, the Saints have struggled to find an offensive identity. While the defense has maintained its shutdown reputation, the unit is aging, and players are signing elsewhere. Carr and the offense struggled quite a bit last season and will need to find some early success to put the Saints out in front.
Allen has to have a successful season in 2024. Despite a winning season in 2023, the Saints had multiple opportunities to seize the NFC South title and choked every time. While the Falcons got a massive boost bringing in Kirk Cousins, the Saints have to find a way to win the NFC South, starting with a victory in Week 1 over the Panthers.
Panthers at Saints Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young: I am here for the Year 2 Young emergence.
OK, that might be a bit strong. What I meant to say was that I expect him to prove that he isn’t nearly as bad as the underlying metrics of his rookie season suggest, but that he’s still a very long shot to matter in our game for anyone not playing in a Superflex league.
Dave Canales certainly has an impressive track record when it comes to squeezing production out of his signal-callers, and maybe he can do it to Young, a QB with plenty of room to grow. Heck, maybe we see signs of it this week against a Saints team that I like to put points on the board.
Under Canales:
- Geno Smith: 29 chances (completions + runs) in Week 1, 2022
- Baker Mayfield: 29 chances in Week 1, 2023
Young only had one game last season with 29+ chances, so from a sheer volume standpoint, I think he can overachieve the little that we have seen from him.
That said, let’s not get crazy for a QB who had one game with multiple passing scores after mid-October and is in a less-than-favorable spot.
Derek Carr: Ready for the time-to-overthink-it-with-these-100%-accurate-facts-that-are-too-good-to-be-true play of the week?
We are so back. Man, I love this game.
There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top-eight in preventing pressure on their quarterback facing a defense that was bottom-eight in generating pressure.
I’m unable to formulate that as a trivia question due to the structure of this article, but yes, it’s Carr and the Saints against the Panthers.
The Saints weren’t at full strength in the first meeting with the Panthers last season, and New Orleans had to ask for extra space on the injury report for their QB when these teams matched up for a second time last year, so I’m not reading too far into the underwhelming numbers of 2023 in this spot.
Instead, I’m focusing on what should be a clean pocket for Carr to operate from.
Last season, of 30 qualifiers, he ranked sixth in fantasy points per pass when not pressured and 23rd when feeling the heat. Now that I’ve sold you (maybe) that he can be efficient, let’s address the upside.
Over the past five seasons on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
The quantity of deep throws is often the sticking point for fantasy managers, and while I’ll agree that is prohibitive most weeks, I’m not sure it will be in this spot with all offseason to prepare for a defense that ranked bottom-10 in touchdown-to-interception rate, passer rating, and yards per attempt when defending those passes.
Carr has had a 25+ fantasy point game in seven of 10 seasons, and in those games, his aDOT (average depth of target) was 16.7% above his career average.
I can’t rank him as a top-10 play due to a lack of upside on the ground and all 32 teams being in action, but given the quality of QB not available on the main DFS slate due to the loading up of prime-time games, I can pitch him as an interesting GPP play that you can double stack for cheap and still have a Jonathan Taylor/Tank Dell mini stack.
Running Backs
Chuba Hubbard: Jonathon Brooks was officially placed on PUP after the preseason ended, and that gives Hubbard some utility early on — emphasis on “some.”
Hubbard was featured in this underwhelming offense a season ago, and despite playing in every game, he turned that strong volume into just three finishes better than RB18.
If that’s his ceiling, is the chasing of volume even worth it against the best defense in terms of success rate against the run? I have Brian Robinson Jr. and Tony Pollard, two running backs not promised high-end volume, ranked higher for Week 1 thanks to an expected edge in efficiency and/or overall game environment.
Hubbard checks in as a fringe Flex option for me. He offers a level of safety that a Jameson Williams or Christian Watson does not, but he’s going to have to do better than the 0.66 points per touch he gave us last season, which was third-worst among qualified backs.
Alvin Kamara: I’m largely out on Kamara this season. He’s pretty clearly past the peak of his powers, and while the pass-catching is still an asset, his ability to do anything else has me worried from a consistency perspective.
READ MORE: Soppe’s Fantasy Football RB Busts for 2024
Yards per carry (carries per rushing TD):
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
That said, I’m fine with deploying him in this spot, and maybe using a big game as an excuse to move on from him. The Panthers allowed a touchdown on just under 5% of running back carries a season ago, easily the highest rate in the league. It’s a number so high that it could prevent Kamara’s seemingly inevitable regression.
Carolina also blitzed at the fifth-highest rate last season, and we all know that Carr doesn’t need an excuse to use his safety valve.
Kamara was unable to exploit this matchup last season, but I’m not worried about the predictive powers of that. I have him ranked as a starter in all spots this week.
Wide Receivers
Diontae Johnson: It’s very possible that Johnson being drafted outside of the top 35 at the position this summer will be proven wrong with time. I just don’t see the point in rolling the dice on him in his Panthers debut.
Last season, opponents failed to pick up a first down on 42.3% of drives against New Orleans, a rate that trailed only the Browns, and one that will likely stick against a Carolina offense that looked lost at sea for much of 2023.
I made the argument for a peaking receiver supporting a high-pedigree Year 2 QB earlier this month, so I’m very much keeping the light on for Johnson. That said, when it comes to team debuts in Week 1, I prefer Stefon Diggs, Brian Thomas Jr., Calvin Ridley, and Rome Odunze to name a few in this general Flex range.
Inspired by @LizLoza_FF's Diontae Johnson optimism
He's 28 and joining Bryce Young (1.01 in 2022)
Since 2004: 13x has a 27-29 year old WR joined a 1st round pick in the QBs Year 2 … 14.5 PPG (WR18 last season)
Even better? 8 of those 13 WRs exceeded 14.5 PPG pic.twitter.com/rF8mysj7aA
— Kyle Soppe (@KyleSoppePFN) August 8, 2024
Adam Thielen: From Weeks 2-6, Thielen was the highest-scoring receiver in the game, and the second-highest-scoring player in the league.
Let me say that again: Thielen was the second-highest-scoring player in the game (tweet me @KyleSoppePFN if you want the top five) over a month. What he did over that run was rack up highly efficient targets less than 10 yards down the field and make the most of them (aDOT: 8.2 yards).
I’m not sure that the short-yardage role is Thielen’s this season, and I’m even less sure that it’s a profitable spot on the field against these Saints.
Last season, New Orleans allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field and surrendered the fifth-fewest completions. With Johnson penciled in as the top target earner and facing the sixth-best team in terms of average time of possession, I’m more than content to bet against the elite volume that Thielen requires to pay off starting him.
The fantasy industry has plenty of blind spots, but the masses properly evaluated Thielen this summer. He shouldn’t be a part of your starting lineup discussion to open the season, and he isn’t the type of player who is a must-roster option.
Chris Olave: The fantasy community is begging to know if Olave’s talent can shine through in a top-10 sort of way with Carr under center. I have hope, and this could well be a step in the right direction given that the Panthers allowed a touchdown on 24% of opponent drives a season ago (fifth-highest rate in the NFL).
Olave has also had success against the Panthers through two seasons – he’s scored at least 12.8 PPR points in all four matchups and has earned north of 10 targets in three of those games.
Olave is a fringe WR1 for me this week, ranking alongside Mike Evans and Michael Pittman Jr. as alpha receivers with potential upside limiters when it comes to getting them the ball.
Rashid Shaheed: I’m of the belief that Shaheed is good at football, but at a loaded position, he’s more of a DFS play than someone to consider for annual lineups until he becomes a 6-8 target per game asset.
For those daily contests, Shaheed is a live wire this week. He and Olave both had 40+ yard grabs against these Panthers in Week 2 last season in large part because Carr can just sit back in the pocket and let his athletes roam.
In 2023, Carolina was the second-worst defense in terms of creating pressure when not blitzing.
So just blitz, right?
Wrong. The Panthers were dead last in pressure percentage when bringing the extra man.
I don’t expect Shaheed to garner much ownership with a full schedule this week, and we know the upside is there for a single catch to pay off his price tag.
A.T. Perry: Everything about Shaheed’s profile rings true for Perry, as well. The former Demon Deacon has the size (6’5”) and athleticism to dominate jump ball situations; if Carr is going to have all day to identify mismatches, this could be a spot where his WR3 is on the right side of a few bombs.
There’s no reason to be looking this far down your depth chart in Week 1, but it wouldn’t shock me if his name is a popular one when Derek Tate and I do the waiver wire podcast on Monday – or if his name is on one of those “look at the winning lineup for the millionaire maker” posts.
Tight Ends
Taysom Hill: You’re either in or out on Hill – there simply is no gray area.
If you want to fully commit to Hill, play him every week and don’t waste too much time thinking about it. If you passed on him at the draft, keep it that way, and don’t add the Sunday scaries to your list of weekend anxieties.
Hill might be used in an improved way and prove to be a cheat code, or he will continue to be a random number generator that never has the same role in consecutive weeks.
I’m not big on randomness, and thus, will come in low on Hill (outside of the top 15) until I have a reason to pivot. We just haven’t seen him do it to open a season yet. Hill has just one double-digit PPG game in September on his NFL ledger.
I’d rather bet against Hill and have him beat me the one week I play him than spend all season chasing the ceiling weeks and standing to lose multiple matchups as a result.
WANT MORE? READ: Soppe’s Week 1 Fantasy Football Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em
Panthers at Saints Key Stats To Know
Panthers
Team: The Panthers trailed for 75.7% of their offensive snaps last season, the highest rate in the league and the third-highest mark for a single season over the past decade (the 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars and 2017 Cleveland Browns were worse).
QB: Bryce Young had more multi-INT games as a rookie (three) than multiple-TD games (two).
Offense: There is one matchup on the board this week that features an offense that was top-eight at preventing pressure on their quarterback (Saints) facing a defense that was bottom-eight in generating pressure (Panthers).
Defense: The Panthers were a bottom-10 unit in sack rate, interception rate, and red-zone defense.
Fantasy: Could Johnson succeed? Peaking WRs have a way of helping high-pedigree Year 2 QBs.
Betting: In terms of points scored in their games over the past two seasons, these two teams both rank in the bottom quartile of the league.
Saints
Team: Derek Carr posted the second-best fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL last season (106.9, behind only Brock Purdy).
QB: Over the past five seasons, on passes thrown 15+ yards down the field, Carr has a …
- Higher passer rating (105.4) than Joe Burrow (102.6)
- Higher yards per attempt (13.2) than Patrick Mahomes (12.8)
- Higher TD rate (9.3%) than Aaron Rodgers (8.8%)
Offense: No team used play-action at a lower rate in 2023 than the Saints (8.4%, league average: 14%).
Defense: Last season, New Orleans allowed the seventh-lowest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards down the field and surrendered the fifth-fewest such completions.
Fantasy: Alvin Kamara as a rusher in yards per carry and carries per rushing TD
- 2017: 6.1 YPC (TD every 15 carries)
- 2018: 4.6 YPC (TD every 13.9 carries)
- 2019: 4.7 YPC (TD every 34.2 carries)
- 2020: 5.0 YPC (TD every 11.7 carries)
- 2021: 3.7 YPC (TD every 60 carries)
- 2022: 4.0 YPC (TD every 111.5 carries)
- 2023: 3.9 YPC (TD every 36 carries)
Betting: Derek Carr was just 6-16 ATS when favored by more than a field goal with the Raiders, but the Saints went 2-2 in such situations last season (all four of those games went under the total).