This game we play can be difficult. Rostering the “right” players in fantasy football is a part of the equation, but without consistently sound decision-making, your team is going nowhere.
With that understanding, let’s look at the Arizona Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bills game and try to optimize your lineup with the players that are on your radar.
Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Bills -6
- Total: 48
- Cardinals implied points: 21
- Bills implied points: 27
The projections in this article are from PFN’s consensus projection system. To see the latest projections for every player, check out PFN’s Start/Sit tool.
Is Kyler Murray a Top-10 Play In Week 1?
- Fantasy Points: 18.4
- Passing Yards: 217.8
- Passing TDs: 1.3
- Interceptions: 0.6
- Rushing Yards: 30.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.3
I’m very excited about Murray’s ceiling this season, but I only have him as a fringe QB1 this week due to some matchup concerns as well as the time it could take for him to maximize the weapons at his disposal.
Splash plays are going to be Murray’s hallmark in 2024. Whether they are chunk runs or big gains through the air, Murray is unlikely to post a big fantasy number based on raw volume, but rather his unique ability for quick strikes. I anticipate we see plenty of that upside as the season progresses, but probably not to open the year.
2023 Buffalo Bills:
- Eighth-highest non-blitz pressure rate
- Fourth-lowest opponent deep pass TD rate
- Fewest yards allowed per deep completion
That profile doesn’t play favorably when it comes to evaluating Murray’s range of outcomes. I said it earlier about the big plays, but allow me to put some context to it.
In Murray’s 11 best fantasy games of his career, 41.8% of passing fantasy points came on deep passes (career: 28.2%), and 35.9% of his fantasy points came on the ground (career: 29.3%).
Be patient. The Cards get the Rams, Lions, and Commanders after this week. You’re going to be happy to have Murray on your roster before long.
For Week 1, however, I have him checking in just behind the two dynamic rookie quarterbacks and as my QB9.
Will Josh Allen Be QB1 This Week?
- Fantasy Points: 23.8
- Passing Yards: 248.1
- Passing TDs: 1.9
- Interceptions: 0.9
- Rushing Yards: 39.2
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
No surprise here – Allen was a Tier-1 quarterback during the draft process, and he profiles as such this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the highest deep completion percentage (55.8%, NFL average: 43.4%) and the second-most yards per drive (34.8).
Joe Brady’s offense revolved around Allen last season, and while I expect the new pieces to need time to gel, facing a defense with limited talent and the league’s lowest blitz rate a season ago should help mask any learning curve in this matchup.
Allen has cleared 21 fantasy points in six of his past seven September games and is averaging 28.2 PPG in his last nine September victories. Buffalo is a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Can James Conner Produce Top-15 Numbers This Weekend?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.9
- Rushing Yards: 47.0
- Rushing TDs: 0.5
- Receptions: 2.0
- Receiving Yards: 15.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Conner wasn’t a sexy pick during the draft process this summer because he is a veteran and the passing game in Arizona got plenty of steam. You, the savvy manager, took advantage of the market to get a nice price. Well done!
I think your sharp approach is rewarded right out of the gates against a Bills defense that allowed the third-most yards per carry to running backs after contact in 2023.
The age curve could catch up to Conner as this season wears on, but he is as healthy as he’ll be at any point this season, and that’s an appealing profile for the RB who led the league in carries of 20+ yards last season (11).
Conner is flirting with RB1 status this week for me and should be locked in across the board, no matter your league roster requirements.
Will Trey Benson Have a Viable Role in His NFL Debut?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.0
- Rushing Yards: 26.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 0.8
- Receiving Yards: 8.6
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
Conner played north of 58% of the offensive snaps in 10 of his 13 games last season, reaching two-thirds on six occasions. I’m not against the idea of holding Benson as a handcuff behind a fragile back in a potentially explosive offense, but standalone value is a long shot. I certainly wouldn’t be banking on it in Week 1 with a healthy Conner in front of him.
Is James Cook’s Role Strong Enough To Be a Top-15 RB?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.2
- Rushing Yards: 61.9
- Rushing TDs: 0.2
- Receptions: 2.0
- Receiving Yards: 22.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
By success rate, the Cardinals were the worst running back defense in the league last season, something their 4.6 yards per carry against (second-worst mark) supports.
I’m an optimist at heart, and maybe that is why I have a different view on Cook than the rest of the industry (I have a standing bet with Derek Tate that Cook will outscore Josh Jacobs).
Instead of focusing on some of the scoring and short-yardage concerns, how about we look at his usage and production under Brady?
Think about it this way: Would you rather have proven talent and hope to run hot with scoring, or have the scoring role and hope to run hot on talent?
It’s not close for me – running hot on talent doesn’t happen much, but a player can fall into positive touchdown variance.
In 2023, Cook had five games with 20+ touches, and four of them came after Brady took over the controls of this offense. Dig deeper and you’ll notice that Cook’s two most efficient games in terms of PPR points over expectation came in the Brady era, too.
I have Buffalo’s RB1 ranked in the same tier as Conner, and thus a lineup staple (maybe even a DFS piece if the field is going elsewhere).
Will Ray Davis Be a Goal Line Vulture in Week 1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.0
- Rushing Yards: 28.3
- Rushing TDs: 0.1
- Receptions: 1.1
- Receiving Yards: 11.4
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
We get a “show me” week out of the gates with Davis and how he is used.
Buffalo is heavily favored to win this game, and Arizona was a bottom-10 red-zone defense in 2023, making this, in theory, the exact spot we want to feel good about plugging Davis in as a Flex down the road.
That’s the key – “down the road.”
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As injuries and byes come into the picture, this pseudo-goal line vulture role stands to hold value, but I’d very much caution against assuming as much.
I think there’s more than just contingent value potential in Davis’ profile, but I need to see proof of concept (probably multiple times), before he gets lineup consideration, even in deeper and/or DFS formats.
An Elite Debut Coming for Marvin Harrison Jr.?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 14.7
- Receptions: 4.9
- Receiving Yards: 72.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.4
He’s a rookie, I get it. We haven’t seen him beat professionals yet, and I understand that causes some hesitancy.
Relax.
No matter where you stand on rookie receivers, can we not agree that both Harrison and New York’s Malik Nabers should walk into high-volume roles?
Over the past five seasons, a first-round receiver has seen 7+ targets in his first NFL start 11 times:
- 18.6 PPR PPG
- 29.3% target share
- +12.8% production over expectation
The Bills allowed the third-highest end-zone completion percentage last season at 44.8% (the NFL average was 35%), and I fully expect Harrison to be featured in close.
You drafted this kid as your WR1, and I think you see immediate returns on that investment.
Is There Sleeper Appeal in Michael Wilson?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.2
- Receptions: 2.1
- Receiving Yards: 31.3
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Wilson’s size profile will have me buying in when the situation is just right, but I need some time to determine what type of matchup profiles as such.
Wilson is facing the defense that allowed just 17 completions of 25+ yards a season ago, easily the top prevention unit in the league. Every other defense allowed at least 22 such plays in 2023.
I think Wilson can assume a valuable role, and that warrants a roster spot, though we have to admit that the target ceiling isn’t high. Thus we must be patient.
Will Curtis Samuel Play This Week?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 6.4
- Receptions: 2.5
- Receiving Yards: 23.7
- Receiving TDs: 0.1
The veteran receiver suffered a turf toe injury in mid-August and was immediately labeled as “week-to-week,” bringing his Week 1 status into question.
Samuel turned 28 this offseason and only has one 700-yard season on his resume, though it did come with Brady as his OC in 2020 with the Panthers.
For now, Samuel is a stash because of the uncertainty of target distribution in this above-average offense, but I have his ceiling ranked third among the trio of Bills vying for targets. Being less than 100% isn’t going to change that stance.
Is Khalil Shakir a Viable DFS Punt Option?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 8.7
- Receptions: 2.9
- Receiving Yards: 46.0
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
In theory, the Shakir case is simple – he was insanely efficient in a small sample size and now he is being asked to do more.
My initial reaction was to use Shakir’s 2023 stat line as a reason to watch him this season. But am I giving him enough credit?
Watching a lot of his film back. I’m so excited for Khalil Shakir this season man. Can’t even put it into words. There’s no limit to what he’s capable of. #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/lYXlu5GZIx
— Liam Frank (@liamwardfrank) September 3, 2024
Here are the top receiver seasons over the past decade by players standing at least 6’0” before turning 25, in terms of production over expectation (minimum 40 targets):
- A.J. Brown (2019): +53.6% – current peak finish: WR7
- Shakir (2023:): +50.7%
- Martavis Bryant (2014): +46.1% – current peak finish: WR17
- JuJu Smith-Schuster (2017): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR9
- Mike Williams (2018): +44.4% – current peak finish: WR13
- Will Fuller V (2018): +39.6% – current peak finish: WR8
- Nico Collins (2023): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR7
- Ja’Marr Chase (2021): +36.8% – current peak finish: WR5
That paints a pretty optimistic picture and we could get a glimpse of that this week against a Cardinals defense that allowed the second-highest slot TD rate last season. For reference, Shakir had a 67.2% slot usage last year.
I’m not ready to assume greatness or anything like that after a strong 45-target 2023, but there is a positive track record for this sort of resume, and that means keeping a close eye on Shakir as the structure of this offense comes into focus.
Should Keon Coleman Be Stashed in All Leagues?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 7.8
- Receptions: 2.6
- Receiving Yards: 38.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
We don’t know exactly what the target hierarchy will look like in Buffalo, but Coleman figures to be in the middle of things given the team used a second-round pick on him after punting away its top two receivers this offseason.
While Shakir and Samuel project more as the conservative pieces in this offense, the 6’3” Coleman owns a catch radius that Allen will certainly explore in valuable spots. The Cardinals allowed 15.9 yards per deep pass attempt last season, a rate that is hard to grapple with. It was 16.9% worse than any other unit in 2023, and the second-worst mark over the past decade.
We will learn together where Allen is most comfortable, but Coleman is my preferred option in Week 1 and in this matchup. He was able to sneak into my top 40 at the position despite a lack of clarity regarding his role.
Can Trey McBride Build on His Finish to 2023?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 11.3
- Receptions: 5.1
- Receiving Yards: 50.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
Arizona’s standout had a touchdown or five-plus catches in eight straight games to close last season. While the volume of looks might dip a little bit with the presence of Harrison, the level of defensive attention likely will, too.
You drafted McBride as a weekly lineup lock and he deserves that title. At worst, he is the secondary target earner in an offense that we all like and in front of a defense that can’t stop anyone.
This game has two of the top-five tight ends for the week in my rankings.
Could Dalton Kincaid Be the TE1 of Week 1?
- Fantasy Points (PPR): 12.4
- Receptions: 5.9
- Receiving Yards: 54.8
- Receiving TDs: 0.2
If there is a tight end who is going to jump up a tier from where he was drafted to where he finishes this season, Kincaid would be my pick, and Week 1 could well prove to be a good example of why.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer in town, is it not safe to pencil in Kincaid for an increase in route volume? As a rookie:
- Eight games with his highest route counts: 6.3 catches per game
- Eight games with his lowest route counts: 2.9 catches per game
There is no denying the opportunity that has presented itself for Kincaid, and the Cardinals don’t exactly profile as the type of defense that will stand in the way.
Last season, there were six instances in which a starter was targeted on at least 30% of his routes against Arizona, a rate that would land Kincaid’s projection among the very best in the game this week.
Included in that opponent list are alpha receivers like Ja’Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk, as well as a highly involved tight end in David Njoku.
Kincaid enters 2024 as Buffalo’s top target, and he should showcase his elite potential in this spot. He’s a strong DFS option and could well be the reason you earn a Week 1 win in your redraft league. I prefer Kincaid to Travis Kelce and have him labeled as TE2 for the week.