The AFC East’s most raucous rivalry will be renewed at the Rock on Thursday when the Buffalo Bills visit the Miami Dolphins in a critical Week 2 showdown.
Read on for PFN’s Bills vs. Dolphins preview and predictions, with our team of experts split down the middle on who will come out on top.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Game Preview
First place is on the line Thursday after Buffalo and Miami both rallied to win non-divisional games in Week 1.
The Bills have owned the Dolphins in recent years, winning 11 of the last 12 meetings, including a de facto division championship game in Week 18 of the 2023 season.
The Dolphins still own the 62-58-1 all-time edge in the series that dates back to 1966, and they’re favored to win Thursday. The line was MIA -2.5 as of Wednesday afternoon, with an over/under of 48.5.
There’s a big split between the Pros and the Joes on this game, with 78% of the money on the Dolphins but 77% of the bets on the Bills.
PFN’s predictions, plus seven key stats courtesy of TruMedia, are below.
7 Bills-Dolphins Stats From TruMedia
Stat: Josh Allen led the Bills to the red zone at the fourth-highest frequency last season (35.9% of drives), while the Dolphins ranked 10th (31.2%).
Analysis: The Bills’ offense did almost anything it wanted against the Cardinals in Week 1, reaching the red zone on four of six drives. But Arizona’s talent on defense is a class below what they have in Miami.
Stat: The Bills were the league’s fourth-worst third-down defense in Week 1 (53.8%, league average: 37.1%).
Analysis: The Dolphins are 12-0 during the Mike McDaniel era when they pick up over 40% of their third downs. With All-Pro corner Taron Johnson ruled out, expect Miami to have success through the air.
Stat: Tua Tagovailoa is 8-1 in healthy (15+ pass attempts) home games played before November.
Analysis: Tagovailoa on Sunday picked up right where he left off in 2023 — atop the NFL in passing yards. His 338 yards in Week 1 were the most of any NFL quarterback.
Stat: The Bills didn’t allow a deep completion (15+ air yards) against the Cardinals in Week 1, their first such game since Week 15 of 2021 against the Panthers.
Analysis: The key to Thursday’s game might be whether Buffalo’s defense reverts back to its generous ways. Miami is the ultimate boom-or-bust team. More than half of their total yards Sunday came on four plays.
Stat: Last season, 68.7% (11th) of Buffalo’s offensive yards on the road came through the air, up from their 62.2% (24th) rate at home.
Analysis: Here’s some super smart insight: If Allen roasts the Dolphins, the Bills will probably win. Allen is 10-2 lifetime in the regular season against Miami with a career passer rating of 110.1.
Stat: The Dolphins were the only team to reach 100+ yards (103) in penalty yardage in Week 1.
Analysis: This seems like a lot (and it is), but 40 of those 103 yards came on a rare Jalen Ramsey defensive pass interference. Expect them to tighten things up on Thursday.
Stat: Since the start of 2022, Miami is 1-4 (averaging 22.4 points per game) on non-Sunday games (including the playoffs). The Dolphins are 20-12 (26.2 ppg) on Sundays over that stretch.
Analysis: Dolphins fans have grown accustomed to prime-time heartbreak. A win Thursday will prove that this truly is a different kind of Dolphins team.
Bills vs. Dolphins Predictions
David Bearman (12-4 in Week 1): Dolphins
Adam Beasley (12-4): Dolphins
Brian Blewis (9-7): Bills
Tony Catalina (12-4): Bills
Anthony DiBona (9-7): Bills
Mike Gambardella (13-3): Dolphins
Jay Morrison (12-4): Bills
Dakota Randall (12-4): Dolphins
Dallas Robinson (11-5): Bills
Ben Rolfe (10-6): Dolphins
Kyle Soppe (11-5): Dolphins
Dan Tomaro (12-4): Bills
Mike Wobschall (12-4): Dolphins
Dakota Zientek (12-4): Bills