The Buffalo Bills will face the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 11 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
Josh Allen was missing Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper for all of Week 10 and lost Dalton Kincaid during the game. For 95% of signal callers, that would hinder their ability to put up numbers, but you didn’t draft Allen because he was a part of the 95%.
Despite all of the injuries around him, Allen accounted for 330 yards of offense against the Colts. He failed to throw a touchdown pass (snapping a streak of four straight multi-TD pass efforts) but still found a way to average 12.7 yards per completion to complement his 11 fantasy points as a runner.
He might be the most situation-proof QB in our fantasy game (only one finish this season worse than QB13), and that makes him the type of player who puts his teams in a position to be successful at the highest level.
We can have the “when to draft a quarterback” conversation this summer, but it’s hard to count out any team with Allen on it, and that needs to be considered more this upcoming August than it was last.
James Cook, RB
Hear me out: What you see from a running back early in his career isn’t necessarily who he is for the rest of his career.
James Cook entered this season with concerns about his ability to find paydirt, a perceived weakness that has been a strength this season. He has twice as many rushing scores this season (128 carries) as he had through two professional seasons (326 carries) and is running as hard as anyone in the league, of which his 20-yard gain in the first quarter was proof.
Buffalo’s run game is going to prove critical this week as they try to hand the defending champs their first loss of the season, and Cook is the type of player who can help facilitate that. He’s posted five top-15 finishes this season, and I’m expecting a sixth, even against the top-ranked run defense in almost every category you’d look at (yards per carry, EPA, success rate, etc.).
Ray Davis, RB
Since burying the New York Jets in Week 6 with James Cook sidelined, Ray Davis hasn’t played more than 23% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in a single game. He’s the clear handcuff in this offense, and there is value in that if you have a good team that is positioning itself for a deep playoff run.
However, if your team is clawing for every win to qualify for the postseason, you might be forced to make a tough call on a player like Davis. There’s no path to stand-alone value as long as Cook is healthy, and with that currently the case, cutting Davis is reasonable if you’re trying to maximize your Week 11 roster.
Amari Cooper, WR
Amari Cooper has been a durable player across his decade in the league, but he’s now missed consecutive games with this wrist injury (matching his most missed games in a season for his career).
The situation in Buffalo is tough to handicap. Not only is Keon Coleman also banged up, but we’ve yet to see exactly how this team intends to use Cooper (33.3% of snaps in Week 7 and 50.7% in Week 8 prior to missing time). Combine all of that with a brutal matchup and the bye looming next week, I’m tentatively not planning on having Cooper in my Week 11 lineups.
Don’t take that the wrong way. I’m still awfully bullish on his outlook as the WR1 in Buffalo’s offense; you just might have to show a little more patience before experiencing the benefits.
Keon Coleman, WR
Keon Coleman, like fellow WR1 candidate Amari Cooper, was inactive for Week 10 with a wrist injury, halting some of the momentum he had gained in the three weeks prior.
- Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans: 36.7% over expectation
- Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks: 25.9% over expectation
- Week 9 vs. Miami Dolphins: 42.5% over expectation
We still don’t have much context when it comes to how Coleman will be used next to Cooper (most of his big plays since the trade have come with the former Brown off the field), and the target earning has been spotty at best (more games with a single-digit target share than one at 20% or higher).
Generally speaking, I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen in terms of development from Coleman, but I’m going to need proof of concept before considering him for my lineup. He was ruled out on Monday for this week, a bad omen for his stock moving forward — I’m keeping him rostered due to his proximity to targets in a top-10 offense, though I’ll admit that my expectations are low.
Khalil Shakir, WR
In terms of advanced metrics, Khalil Shakir didn’t have a solid Week 10. He recorded his first negative EPA per target rate of the season, but PPR managers can’t complain with a fourth straight game with 6+ receptions, a role that feels about as safe as any in the league.
Keon Coleman (already ruled out for Week 11) and Amari Cooper were both sidelined last week with wrist injuries, though I’m not sure that significantly impacts what Shakir does for this offense. Should Cooper return to the field this week, my PPR WR2 ranking of Shakir won’t meaningfully change; I view him as an extension of the running game and value his connection with Josh Allen.
The vaunted Chiefs defense is every bit as good as you think it is, but it has allowed the second-highest passer rating to the slot through 10 weeks (122.8, only the Commanders have been worse). That has me labeling Shakir’s Week 10 stat line (6-58-0) as something of a floor, and that’s startable.
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Dalton Kincaid suffered a knee injury in the first half last week and tried to return to action with a brace. After a few snaps, he elected to call it a day, leaving fantasy managers out in the cold after an optimistic start to Week 10.
In the first quarter of the win over the Colts, Kincaid matched a career-high for targets in the first 15 minutes with four. His fantasy day would have been made if Josh Allen hadn’t missed him on what would have been a 28-yard score in the first stanza.
I’m approaching this situation with cautious optimism. Kincaid earned a season-high 10 targets in Week 9’s win over the Dolphins, and it seems that this offense is looking to get their TE more involved with the scripted plays working in his favor early last week.
Of course, there is no shortage of moving pieces while Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman both deal with wrist injuries, but this is an offense I generally want to invest in when I get the chance.
Keep an eye on Kincaid’s practice status moving forward — I still think there’s upside to chase when healthy.
Dawson Knox, TE
From PFN Analyst Jason Katz
It’s been a very long time since fantasy managers seriously thought about starting Dawson Knox. The last time he did anything of note was Week 16 of the 2022 season! Yet, he’s back on the menu for Week 11.
Outside of the lone game where he caught a touchdown pass in Week 6, Knox’s best game was 7.0 fantasy points. He has a whopping eight games with under 2.0 fantasy points. It’s completely understandable to be very hesitant to start him.
Dalton Kincaid is out this week. Kincaid missed time during last week’s game, too. After running no more than 14 routes in any game this season, Knox ran 23 routes against the Colts.
With Kincaid out, we should expect Knox to be the full-time tight end. He could see upwards of an 80% snap share and will likely set a season-high in routes run.
The Chiefs may have a great defense overall, but they’ve really struggled against tight ends. They allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the position. No team allows a higher percentage of their total receiving yards against tight ends than the staggering 35.8% surrendered by the Chiefs. It is the highest in the league by an impossibly wide margin (the next most is 28.5%).
Given the Chiefs’ elite run defense, the Bills should air it out this week. Amari Cooper is likely to return, but Keon Coleman remains out. Knox could be the third option behind Khalil Shakir and Cooper in the passing game. He is a very viable streaming option.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Trends
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: The Chiefs have won nine straight games when trailing in the second half.
QB: Among 32 qualifiers, Patrick Mahomes ranks 19th in yards per pass, 23rd in interception rate, and 32nd in average depth of throw.
Offense: Kansas City leads the league in third down conversion rate (52%).
Defense: The win on Sunday was nice to get, but the Chiefs created pressure on just 21.2% of dropbacks, their lowest rate of the season despite a 42.4% blitz rate (their second-highest mark of 2024).
Fantasy: Travis Kelce has seen at least a dozen targets in three straight games, the first player aged 35 or older to do that since Terrell Owens in 2010 (five straight).
Betting: The Chiefs are 5-1-1 ATS in their past seven road games.
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills have won five straight games and just scored 50 points in their most recent game. Heading into their playoff loss to the Chiefs last season, they had won six straight games and scored 48 points in their most recent game.
QB: The Bills opened the season 3-0, and Josh Allen completed 75% of his passes. Since, he’s completed just 59.9% of his passes (four interceptions over his past three games).
Offense: That’s now five straight weeks of improvement when it comes to limiting pressure when not blitzed for this offensive line.
Defense: Buffalo has allowed the opposition to convert no more than 37.5% of their third downs in four of their past five games.
Fantasy: James Cook has twice as many rushing touchdowns this season (128 carries) as he did in his first two seasons (326 carries).
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in seven straight Buffalo home games (4-0 this season with three of those games going over the number by at least 7.5 points).