Once again, the Buffalo Bills look like one of the best teams in the AFC. Despite losing a handful of key players during the offseason, the Bills went 9-2 over the first 11 weeks of the campaign and are primed for another playoff run.
But what are Buffalo’s chances of making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl, especially after knocking off the Chiefs in Week 11? Let’s look at all the scenarios in play.
Can the Bills Make the Playoffs?
After all the action in Week 11, the Buffalo Bills are 9-2 and now have a 99.7% chance to make the playoffs.
They have a 15.0% chance for the 1 seed, a 37.7% chance for the second seed, a 40.4% chance for the third seed, a 5.7% chance for the fourth seed, a 0.2% chance for the fifth seed, a 0.3% chance for the sixth seed, and a 0.4% chance for the seventh seed.
Can the Bills Win the AFC East?
Here’s what the AFC East race looks like after all the Sunday action in Week 11:
- The Buffalo Bills have a 98.8% chance to win the AFC East.
- The Miami Dolphins have a 1.1% chance to win the AFC East.
- The New England Patriots have a 0.0% chance to win the AFC East.
- The New York Jets have a 0.1% chance to win the AFC East.
Current AFC East Standings
- Buffalo Bills (9-2)
- Miami Dolphins (4-6)
- New York Jets (3-8)
- New England Patriots (3-8)
Bills’ Super Bowl Chances After Week 11
Can the Bills win the Super Bowl? The PFN Playoff Predictor projects that Buffalo has a 4.6% chance to win it all.
Bills’ Remaining Schedule
- Week 12: BYE
- Week 13: vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Week 14: at Los Angeles Rams
- Week 15: at Detroit Lions
- Week 16: vs. New England Patriots
- Week 17: vs. New York Jets
- Week 18: at New England Patriots
What PFN Predicted for the Bills vs. Chiefs Matchup
Let’s look at both teams’ season rankings in various PFN metrics.
- Bills offense: Sixth (B)
- Bills defense: 13th (C+)
- Bills QB Josh Allen: Ninth (B)
- Chiefs offense: Seventh (B)
- Chiefs defense: 11th (C+)
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Eighth (B)
This is one of the marquee games on the 2024 NFL schedule. If the Bills win, they’ll reestablish themselves as true AFC contenders and claim the head-to-head tiebreaker, while the Chiefs would all but lock up the No. 1 seed with a victory.
Buffalo began the season with a three-game winning streak before losing two straight. Since then, the Bills have won five straight games while scoring 30+ points in their last four contests. They rank just 14th in yards per game (343.2) but are averaging the third-most points per game (29.0).
Josh Allen, who watched Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leave last offseason, has been the biggest story for Buffalo. A top-five MVP candidate, Allen in the first 10 weeks completed 63.5% of his passes for 2,281 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions, while adding 261 rushing yards and four TDs.
Can the Bills be the first team in 30 games to score over 28 points against the Chiefs? We’ll just have to wait and see.
To that end, the Kansas City defense arguably is the best overall unit in this game.
Like many teams, the Bills have enough offensive firepower to overcome a relatively mediocre Chiefs offense, which is averaging just 23.9 points per game. However, since the start of last season, the Chiefs’ defense repeatedly has sucked the life out of opponents failing to capitalize on Patrick Mahomes playing with subpar receivers.
Through 10 weeks, Kanas City’s defense ranks fifth in scoring (17.9 opponents’ points per game), third in rushing yards allowed (83.2), 14th in passing yards allowed (206.7), and fourth in total yards allowed (289.9).
With all that said, the Chiefs still have Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and DeAndre Hopkins, and Andy Reid is still calling the plays. Yeah, Mahomes’ 12:9 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn’t great, but he is the NFL’s best QB with the game on the line.
The Chiefs and Bills will kick off from Highmark Stadium at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 17.
PFN Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bills 26