If you’re looking for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football NFL DFS picks in Week 13, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
As of Monday morning, Leonard Fournette and Russell Gage are questionable. Both likely will suit up. Gage was a consistent two-catch option before getting hurt, so let’s not get overly consumed with his outlook.
Instead, Fournette might generate the biggest ripple effect on our Bucs-related DFS decisions. If he returns without limitations, then he could be a formidable (and relatively affordable) option against a middling New Orleans run defense.
For all of Fournette’s struggles (3.4 yards per carry, only three rushing touchdowns, etc.), few running back are as prolific through the air. He’s sixth in the league in RB receptions, eighth in RB receiving yards, and tied for fifth at his position with three receiving scores. That usage has kept his value above water.
If he’s somehow a late scratch, then, of course, Rachaad White would become a must-start in this DFS slate. But together, this pair forms an intriguing hedge, even as Tom Brady leads the league in pass attempts.
Because the Bucs feature their RBs in the passing game more than most teams. With the backfield to himself last week, White caught nine passes. The fact is, he and Fournette could hit 12+ points each, accounting for a combined 8-10 receptions as Brady spreads the ball around to a (finally) healthy corps of playmakers.
If New Orleans wins, they’ll be 5-8 and . . . a half-game out of first place in the NFC South. The thought boggles the mind.
The Saints lost to the Bucs at home in Week 2 but were forced to start 32-year-old Mark Ingram with Alvin Kamara shelved. To his credit, Ingram amassed an impressive 10-58 rushing line against Tampa Bay.
We now know that wasn’t a fluke performance — and I’m not talking about Ingram. The Bucs’ run defense was tops in the league two years ago, averaging only 3.6 yards per carry. This season they’re yielding 4.6 yards per carry.
But . . . Tampa Bay has surrendered the league’s fewest RB receiving yards, and it’s not even close. That’s quite a feat. What might that mean for Kamara, who’s garnering the third most RB receptions and receiving yards? Basically, can he overcome the Bucs, or will the Bucs focus largely on locking him down?
Among receivers, it once again appears to be Chris Olave or bust. The rookie has exceeded even the loftiest realistic expectations. But beyond him (and perhaps Kamara), I’m curious if anyone else could step up for a franchise whose season essentially will end with a loss tonight.
Top NFL DFS Picks for MNF
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Captain: QB Tom Brady, Buccaneers ($15,600)
Nothing flashy. Brady is Brady. He’s scored 15-20 DFS points in each of his last four outings. While we could roll the dice on the more expensive Chris Godwin or slightly cheaper Mike Evans, Brady offers a solid baseline and 22+ point ceiling.
Flex: RB Alvin Kamara, Saints ($10,000)
If he busts, this entire slate will bust. This lineup assumes the Saints will keep the game close and move the ball fairly effectively. Kamara can deliver if he’s close to vintage form. We’ll see.
Flex: WR Chris Olave, Saints ($8,400)
I’m not sure Tampa Bay can contain him. Even if they do, 10+ points seems a realistic possibility, and a score is always a strong likelihood in this top-heavy offense.
Flex: RB Leonard Fournette, Buccaneers ($7,400)
I don’t think Fournette’s been this cheap since the start of last season. If he sits, or if it’s publicly announced that he’ll be on a snap count, then I’d advise replacing him and Adam Trautman (more on him in a moment) with Julio Jones and Jarvis Landry while shifting White into the Captain slot.
But to be clear, I expect Fournette to be out there.
Flex: RB Rachaad White, Buccaneers ($7,000)
We know that the days of Fournette the Bell Cow are over, at least this season. The rookie White is here to stay, and he very well could out-touch Fournette in this one.
Flex: TE Adam Trautman, Saints ($1,200)
With $1,600 remaining, let’s roll with the previously mentioned Trautman. Juwan Johnson is out. That doesn’t mean Trautman will have a Johnson-esque performance. But the Bucs have yielded the sixth most TE receptions. Trautman is too affordable — and too useful to Dalton — to be ignored in this otherwise top-heavy lineup.
Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.
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