If you’re playing a Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers DFS lineup for Sunday in Week 3, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.
The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.
Recommended Buccaneers vs. Packers DFS lineup
Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five flex players. The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data.
Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. Criteria such as age, durability, shifting personnel, schedule, and other factors help shape these final assessments.
Buccaneers DFS considerations
Two tough games down, two to go. Few teams have faced a more difficult opening four weeks than the Buccaneers, beginning with contests in Dallas and New Orleans and now preparing for the Packers and the Chiefs.
It hasn’t been pretty, and injuries (and a key suspension) have rocked the boat. But Tampa Bay is on the verge of becoming “the team to beat” in the NFC.
It’s hard to know what’s been tougher on this offense: two challenging road matchups, a depleted offensive line, or a hollowed-out receiving corps. Or maybe Tom Brady is showing his age? Nah, probably not. But yeah, there could be some rust after sitting a chunk of the preseason.
Still, I wouldn’t bet against the Bucs’ key offensive weapons at home, even against Green Bay. The question, then, is where we find the best value for a DFS lineup.
We can’t charge into this process thinking Brady and Leonard Fournette are there for the taking unless we’re prepared to cut corners elsewhere. Fortunately, Mike Evans’ absence opens the door for the possibility that a cheap receiver rises to the challenge.
Packers DFS considerations
Seven Green Bay players have either five or six receptions. Let that sink in. Two are the famed RB duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. And none of the other five are named Allen Lazard, who entered this season as Aaron Rodgers’ unofficial No. 1 wideout.
Confronting a tough Tampa Bay defense on the road will be tough enough. Trying to predict which receiver(s) will stand out from the pack is an entirely different calculus. When constructing DFS lineups, I’m not interested in guesswork.
I want to play the probabilities, and at the moment, despite his Week 1 touchdown, Lazard isn’t any more likely to crack 10+ DFS points than Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, or Sammy Watkins. Randall Cobb looms as a veteran spoiler. It’s messy, to say the least.
And how much can we trust Jones or Dillon? We probably have to because one of them is the best bet to return substantial — or at least adequate — value.
And if not, then we need to change our thinking entirely and consider a lineup that includes one or both kickers or D/STs. Because this game could turn into a trench battle that favors DFS bettors anticipating a lot more field goals than touchdowns.
Recommended DFS lineup
As of Friday, among DFS-relevant starters in this game, a majority had questionable tags. That’s a tough way to assemble a high-probability winning lineup.
But no excuses! We are not betting babies, wearing diapers sewn with empty promises. We are mature wagerers of fortune. We live with our final decisions because the alternative won’t cut it.
I’m betting this game will be similar to the last two Bucs games, where they and their opponents have combined for only three offensive touchdowns. Yes, only three. Tampa Bay’s fierce defense and makeshift passing attack (for now) puts more weight on their running game, while also making it difficult for Green Bay to sustain long drives.
The Bucs D/ST ($4,400 normally, $6,600 as Captain) belongs in our Captain slot. They have strong 15+ point potential on Sunday, and they also free up cap space to spend on more “great” players, including Brady ($9,600) and Fournette ($10,600). While I remain convinced Fournette will regress and/or get hurt this season based on his history, in this contest he should be a focal point for a team lacking reliable playmakers.
I’m also committing to the Packers’ Jones ($11,400) and Dillon ($7,200) in the belief Rodgers won’t have a go-to receiver, and instead will lean heavily on outlet throws to his backfield to eat up yards. While they might not score, Jones and Dillon are this team’s best bets for 10+ DFS points each.
Finally, I’d roll with Ryan Succop ($4,200). If this is the grind-it-out-game I’m anticipating, we shouldn’t be surprised if he replicates his four-field-goal output from Week 1.