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    Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Prediction: Can the Bucs Stop Their Slide?

    Here's our pick and prediction, along with analysis, for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs matchup in Week 9.

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    The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will travel to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9. Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of October 28, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.

    If you’re looking for the full slate of our picks and predictions, head to our Early Week 9 Picks and Predictions.

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-8, 45.5)

    Two weeks ago, this matchup between two of the top five teams in our NFL Power Rankings was shaping up to be fantastic. Both teams still sit pretty in our PR+ standings, but the contest has changed drastically with the Buccaneers not having either Mike Evans or Chris Godwin.

    Tampa Bay still fared well against a poor Falcons’ defense, but the Chiefs offer a top-10 defense, which is going to be a completely different task.

    Even before the injuries, the play was Kansas City. They have the fifth-ranked offense and the 10th-ranked defense this year. Yes, they’ve played an easier schedule, but the Buccaneers’ defense is problematic at 25th in our Defense+, meaning the offense would have to be perfect in order to beat the Chiefs on the road.

    For as good as their 7-0 record looks, the Chiefs have only won two games by more than one score. That worries me when it comes to laying more than a touchdown in this game. I think Kansas City will win, but laying eight points is too much. If you can get the Chiefs to a field goal or less in a teaser, then that’s the play to look at this week.

    Prediction: Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 20
    Pick:
    Chiefs -3 or less in a teaser

    Buccaneers at Chiefs Game Insights

    Team: This is the first of a seven-game stretch that sees Tampa Bay play five road games.

    QB: Baker Mayfield has thrown for 325 yards and three touchdowns in three straight games – the last player with a four-game streak was Aaron Rodgers bridging the 2012-13 seasons.

    Offense: The Bucs are averaging 2.57 points per drive, pacing for their second most this millennium (other: 2020, Super Bowl champions).

    Defense: Over the past two weeks (BAL and ATL), Tampa Bay has allowed 3.6 points per drive (Weeks 1-6: 2.0).

    Fantasy: We spent a lot of time last week trying to pin the tail on the Buccaneer WR most likely to step up when it proved to be the existing pieces—against the Falcons, Cade Otton, Bucky Irving, and Rachaad White accounted for 48.2% of Tampa Bay’s receiving yards and 56.8% of their receptions.

    Betting: Tampa Bay is 4-16 ATS (20%) over their past 20 primetime games (0-2 this season in a pair of shootouts – 36-30 loss to the Falcons in Week 5 and a 41-31 loss to the Ravens in Week 7).

    Kansas City Chiefs

    Team: This isn’t the high-flying offense we want it to be, but there is an offensive floor that comes with Patrick Mahomes, and that’s enough—this team hasn’t lost a game in which they’ve scored over 20 points since December 4, 2022 (at Bengals).

    QB: Mahomes doesn’t have a completion that traveled 20 yards in the air in October.

    Offense: The Chiefs averaged 31.1 points per game in their 2022 wins. That number dropped to 25.0 last season and is even lower in their undefeated start this season (24.7).

    Defense: They proved willing to ramp up the aggression last week in Vegas if they identify it as a weakness of their opponent – 47.1% blitz rate after checking in under 28% in each of their three games prior.

    Fantasy: Mahomes hasn’t finished better than QB16 in six straight games and has a lower pass touchdown rate than Will Levis this season.

    Betting: Mahomes has covered all three of his primetime games this season (Ravens, Falcons, and Saints) after covering just three of his most recent 11 regular season primetime games entering 2024.

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