The Denver Broncos would have liked to see their RB depth chart more set in stone by this time a few years ago. However, injuries have derailed what looked like an early track for Javonte Williams to be an impact starter in the NFL.
Now, Williams is entering 2024 a full season removed from his Oct. 2022 ACL/LCL injury. Samaje Perine has departed for Kansas City, opening the way for second-year dynamo Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie bruiser Audric Estimé to find time in the rotation.
Can any of them be useful for fantasy football managers this season? Let’s examine the fantasy outlooks for Williams, McLaughlin, and Estimé in 2024.
Javonte Williams’ Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 208.6 (151.0 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 758.5
- Rushing Touchdowns: 5.4
- Receptions: 57.7
- Receiving Yards: 315.8
- Receiving Touchdowns: 1.8
This is a complicated profile to evaluate.
On one hand, we know the talent is there. After racking up over 1,400 yards and scoring 22 times at North Carolina in 2020, the Broncos made Williams the third running back drafted and immediately gave him 246 touches. He rewarded them with 1,219 yards and seven touchdowns alongside Melvin Gordon III, catching 81.1% of his targets and flashing in a major way when in space.
That, however, feels like a lifetime ago. After losing the majority of 2022 to injury, Williams returned in 2023 and didn’t look the same. None of his 264 touches last season gained more than 21 yards as his efficiency fell off a cliff.
Comparing 2023 to 2021
- Yards per carry: Down 18.2%
- Yards per carry after contact: Down 30.4%
- Yards per catch: Down 32.9%
On the surface, I’m OK excusing some of these struggles. We’ve seen running backs return to action the year following a serious knee injury and struggle only to rebound close to healthy form the next season — Saquon Barkley in 2021 comes to mind.
If that were the only tick in the negative column, I’d be all-in on Williams at his current price, one where he is not being drafted as anything more than a very low-end RB2 and, more often than not, as a flex. This Broncos offense as a whole is a mess, and that is going to impact Williams’ bottom line.
So, how do you evaluate Williams? Is his pedigree enough to overcome an unproven supporting cast? Or is his stat line going to be capped significantly until this offense has a clear direction?
With him being priced outside of the top 75 overall players, I’m willing to bite. Williams is being drafted next to the likes of Zack Moss and Jaylen Warren, two backs that come with more role concerns, not to mention far less pedigree.
At his current price, Williams won’t sink your season should he flame out, but he could be the key to a championship run if what we saw during his rookie season returns early in 2024. That is a profile I’m investing in on a regular basis and living with the results.
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
Jaleel McLaughlin’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 169.2 (119.8 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 654.6
- Rushing Touchdowns: 2.4
- Receptions: 49.5
- Receiving Yards: 255.5
- Receiving Touchdowns: 2.4
It may be easy to assume Williams will be the Broncos’ leading ball carrier again in 2024. Yet, when you read between the lines a bit, the possibility of another back potentially stealing the leading role in this offense isn’t too far-fetched.
McLaughlin averaged 5.4 yards per carry, caught 31 of 36 targets for 160 yards, and found the end zone three times on his 107 total touches working behind Williams. The yards-per-carry mark is far superior to Williams’ 3.6 — which marks the third straight season where Williams’ per-carry efficiency has dropped.
Perhaps confirming the overall disappointment in Williams’ 2023 campaign was the addition of Estimé out of Notre Dame in the fifth round this past NFL Draft. The arrival of the one-time Fighting Irish runner clouds the overall outlook for this backfield.
The limited overall production in 2023 and McLaughlin’s lack of size at 5’7” and 187 pounds have him flying under the radar for many fantasy managers entering his second year. Even if his role expands exponentially, the fact there are three better short-yardage options means McLaughlin isn’t likely to see those valuable touches inside the five-yard line.
However, McLaughlin’s efficiency, explosiveness, and versatility were all present during his limited work over his rookie season. His back-to-back 17+ fantasy-point outings speak to his potential upside with an expanded role.
I still believe Williams enters the year with the inside track to the most touches, but we could be talking about an RB2 ceiling in 2024 if McLaughlin continues to produce a highly efficient clip while providing explosive plays on occasion. McLaughlin’s ADP at No. 168 overall in the 14th round as the RB50 off the board presents fantasy managers with some intriguing upside at a very reasonable draft-day price.
If McLaughlin continues to be the most efficient ball carrier in this backfield by a wide margin, then his upside at this point in the draft makes him a great addition as your RB4 in 2024.
– Derek Tate, Fantasy Football Analyst
Audric Estimé’s Fantasy Outlook and Projections
- PPR fantasy Points: 97.7 (89.3 Non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 596.1
- Rushing Touchdowns: 3.3
- Receptions: 8.4
- Receiving Yards: 84.2
- Receiving Touchdowns: 0.2
The Broncos releasing Samaje Perine at the end of the preseason tells us that they are confident in their running back room, and that includes this fifth-round rookie out of Notre Dame. Williams was as inefficient as anyone in the league last season, but there is general optimism that he will be better this year now that he is fully removed from the 2022 ACL tear.
Even if you like Williams, there’s no denying that depth at the position is critical, and Denver has that. McLaughlin was obviously impressive last season, but Estimé did turn heads at various points this offseason and would likely be used as a committee option should Williams get dinged up.
Holding stock in a Sean Payton backfield isn’t a bad way to spend a final pick and we have tangible proof that Estimé can handle plenty of work (1,341 rushing yards last season).
– Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
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