Last week, the Denver Broncos became the first team this season to clinch a playoff berth after improving to 12–2, the best record in the NFL. The Broncos entered Week 16 firmly in the mix for both the AFC West crown and the conference’s No. 1 seed.
Unfortunately, Denver’s winning streak was snapped by the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16. Let’s break down the Broncos’ postseason scenarios and their odds of locking the top seed in the AFC after their recent loss.
Can the Broncos Clinch the AFC’s No. 1 Seed in Week 16?
While the Broncos’ offense has experienced some inconsistency, Sean Payton has done an outstanding job over the past two seasons. Once again, Denver’s defense has carried the team in 2025, helping the Broncos become the first team to clinch a playoff berth.
With that victory, Payton became just the third head coach since 1950 to lead a team to 10 or more wins in each of a quarterback’s first two NFL seasons, an impressive milestone that underscores Denver’s rapid turnaround with the arrival of Bo Nix.
Before Week 16, the Broncos had not lost since Week 3, and their grip on the AFC West strengthened. According to PFSN’s Playoff Predictor, after the loss to the Jaguars, Denver’s division-winning odds dropped to 72.30%, and their chances of securing the AFC’s No. 1 are now at 48.70%.
Bo Nix is intercepted by Jarrian Jones đź‘€
đź“ş FOX pic.twitter.com/4pNMf0lkHU
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 21, 2025
Denver faced the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday, with a chance to officially lock up the AFC West. Unfortunately, the Broncos now have to wait at least till next week to win the division.
MORE: 3-Round 2026 NFL Mock Draft
Moreover, a win for the Patriots over Baltimore would be particularly damaging to Denver’s aspirations for the top seed.
Still, given their current form, it would be surprising if the Broncos failed to win the AFC West. The No. 1 seed, however, remains the primary target, and Denver will need to keep stacking wins to secure it.
Both the Patriots and the Bills face challenging schedules down the stretch, making conference record the most straightforward path for Denver to remain atop the AFC. Holding onto their one-game lead is critical, and Week 16 looms large.
Here are the Broncos’ remaining matchups:
- Week 17: at Kansas City Chiefs
- Week 18: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The good news for Denver is that Kansas City may have little to play for in Week 17 and will be without Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 15.
Even though the Broncos failed to take care of business against Jacksonville, they are still expected to win the division and remain firmly on track for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. While the race may ultimately come down to Week 18, Denver is firmly in the driver’s seat.
