Not every team has a clear alpha receiver in its offense, making weekly decisions tougher on fantasy football managers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars fall squarely into that camp, with a trio of viable wide receiver options plus Evan Engram and Travis Etienne Jr. to siphon away shares of the offense.
Headed into Jacksonville’s Week 2 matchup vs the Cleveland Browns, which Jags wideout should fantasy managers trust?
Which WR Should You Choose from Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis in Week 2?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Brian Thomas Jr. is the player to start. His projected 10.7 points include four receptions for 53 yards. That outperforms the consensus projection for both Christian Kirk (10.1 points) and Gabe Davis (7.4 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Kirk outperforming his other two teammates due to the Browns’ strength on the perimeter and the likelihood that his volume regresses towards more typical levels.
Thomas Jr.’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
The rookie made a splash in his NFL debut, catching the Jaguars’ only pass and being the highest-volume receiver in the offense on a per-snap basis. Thomas was targeted on a team-high 21% of his routes, catching all four passes for 47 yards.
While the first-rounder has the highest projection, both Davis (23 routes) and Kirk (21 routes) outpaced Thomas in terms of total passing game volume, as the rookie ran only 19 routes vs. the Miami Dolphins. Moreover, he lined up out wide on 74% of those routes, running only five routes from the slot.
The Browns have been a lockdown defense against perimeter wide receivers. Since the start of 2023, Cleveland has allowed the second-lowest EPA per dropback against receivers lined up out wide (-0.02) behind only the New Orleans Saints.
With Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr. both healthy, Thomas could face a tougher path to fantasy production in Week 2.
Kirk’s Fantasy Outlook This Week
Per usual, Kirk was the Jaguars’ primary slot receiver to open the season, running 67% of his routes (14 of 21) from the area. The production was lacking, as he garnered just a single catch on four targets for 30 yards. However, there’s reason to believe that Kirk could be the best option among this group on Sunday.
In three seasons with Jacksonville, Kirk has received a steady target share. His 22% target rate is the highest on the Jaguars since 2022, and his 19% target rate in Week 1 would have been his fifth-lowest rate in any game last year.
KEEP READING: PFN’s Consensus Fantasy Football Rankings
And while Kirk missed last season’s Week 14 matchup vs Cleveland due to a core muscle injury, Trevor Lawrence had much more success targeting his slot receivers in that matchup.
Lawrence was 10 of 13 for 102 yards (7.8 yards per attempt) while targeting receivers aligned in the slot vs the Browns last season. In comparison, he was 9 of 23 for 82 yards (3.6 yards per attempt) targeting receivers aligned out wide.
With Cleveland’s stinginess on the perimeter, that could lead to higher volume for Kirk in the middle of the field.
Davis’ Fantasy Outlook This Week
Davis was a true X receiver in his Jaguars debut. Davis lined up out wide on all 23 of his routes vs. the Dolphins, catching all three of his targets for 62 yards.
The reason Davis falls short in these projections is due to his boom-or-bust nature. He has always been an extreme vertical receiver; his career average of 14.9 air yards per target is the highest in the NFL since he debuted in 2020. That was no different in Week 1, with Davis averaging a team-high 16 air yards per target.
That formula is unlikely to work against the Browns, who thrive on defending deep passes.
Since the start of 2023, Cleveland has allowed the league’s lowest completion percentage (32%) on passes traveling 15+ air yards. Thus, the odds of Davis breaking through the Browns’ secondary for a deep shot are less likely than they would be in a normal week.
Kyle Soppe’s Week 2 Fantasy Outlook for Thomas, Kirk, and Davis
Christian Kirk: From a less proven receiver, I’d worry about him posting a 25% catch rate while the rest of his teammates caught 73.3% of their looks, but Kirk is an established weapon to whom I still assign a high production floor, even after an underwhelming Week 1.
This, however, isn’t a get-right spot, and I’d rather chase the touchdown upside of his rookie teammate. The Browns forced a punt on the majority of opponent drives last season, the first defense to do that since the 2015 Texans, making them a brutal matchup for a receiver that needs volume.
Kirk is barely inside my top 40 at the position this week.
Brian Thomas Jr.: The rookie did what seemingly no Jaguar could do last season: walk the tightrope in the end zone. His first half was a thing of beauty, but like the rest of this offense, nothing was happening after halftime.
Ups and downs are to be expected, but I want to have him on my roster in the event that it all comes together with time. In his first NFL game, he perfectly executed a red-zone timing route and, on another play, forced Jalen Ramsey to tackle him to prevent a score (40-yard DPI). This kid is special, and I think he can work his way onto the Flex order in most formats sooner rather than later.
Gabe Davis: It’s officially fantasy football season when you’re getting excited about a Davis highlight. The former Bill was the recipient of Lawrence’s first pass of this season, and my Twitter feed filled up with “it’s going to be different this year” posts.
Tell me you haven’t rostered Davis before without telling me you haven’t rostered Davis before.
He went on to earn just two more looks for the rest of the afternoon – welcome to the full experience. He’s, at best, the fourth option in a passing game that has struggled to stay aggressive for four quarters during the Lawrence era. I don’t mind stashing Davis on your bench as a potential Hail Mary play in times of need, but at this point, there’s little he could do that would convince me to consider him a viable Flex play.