Despite coming off of an ACL tear and playing in one of the worst offenses in the NFL in 2023, New York Jets RB Breece Hall somehow still managed to finish the season as the RB2 overall in fantasy football.
Assuming the quarterback play will have a positive impact on the offense across the board and the addition of a top-tier offensive-line prospect to the unit up front, does Hall enter the 2024 NFL season with RB1 overall upside in fantasy football?
Breece Hall’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Outside of Hall’s RB2 overall finish in full-PPR formats in 2023, there has only been one other back to finish as a top-two fantasy back playing for a team that ranked 29th or lower in scoring offense since 2007 — and that was Frank Gore with the San Francisco 49ers.
When you realize just how uncommon it is for running backs to become elite fantasy options on horrendous offensive units, one could come to truly appreciate how productive Hall was last year.
Breece Hall has the answer for the #Jets as he sprints out for 35 yards 💨 pic.twitter.com/1MRkHAHZ81
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) November 13, 2023
The Jets’ offense ranked 31st in total yards at 268.6 per game, Hall accounted for 93.2 of those yards over his 17 games on the field last year after returning from the major knee injury he suffered during his rookie season.
Speaking of that knee injury, this feat becomes even more impressive when you consider he had just 37 total touches and zero touchdowns through the first four games of the 2023 season while the organization was limiting his touch count after returning from injury.
Since New York elected to make Hall the feature back in Week 5, we saw him produce a fantasy floor in PPR formats in a terrible offense by catching an average of four passes per game.
Sure, the rushing efficiency has dropped by over a full yard per carry since his rookie campaign. However, some of these efficiency issues can certainly be tied to a struggling offensive line, poor quarterback play, and his first season back from a significant knee injury.
The Jets addressed their offensive line issues by selecting Olumuyiwa Fashanu at No. 11 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. This move should not only help clear more rushing lanes for Hall but also protect veteran quarterback Aaron Rodgers this upcoming season.
New York generated a miserable 37 trips to the red zone last year, which ranked 30th in the league. The Jets 32.4% touchdown conversion rate in the red zone was dead last in the NFL. Assuming Rodgers provides even average quarterback play under center this season, we can reasonably expect these numbers to rise significantly in 2024.
Hall’s ADP in the middle rounds, coming off a significant knee injury and the signing of productive veteran Dalvin Cook, may have made him a great bargain last year, but that’s no longer the case heading into 2024. His ADP of No. 4 overall as the RB2 off the board means you will be required to pay top draft capital for him to anchor your fantasy football team this upcoming season.
Hall displayed both an incredible fantasy floor in full-PPR formats and big-play ability with a handful of explosive plays on a terrible offense last season. The fact he produced the season he did with Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle under center while being eased back into the offense through the first month of last year is nothing short of a miracle.
Hall certainly has an overall RB1 upside and is very worthy of first-round draft capital in your fantasy draft in 2024.