Christian McCaffrey should go No. 1 overall in every fantasy football draft. The next few picks may be wide receivers, but the next running back off the board is either Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. Should fantasy managers draft the New York Jets RB as the overall RB2?
Breece Hall’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
Hall should not have been a good pick last season. It was his first year back after tearing his ACL. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers four plays into the season, forcing Zach Wilson back into the starting role. The offensive line was a disaster. Had Hall failed to produce, everyone would’ve given him a pass. That’s what makes his 2023 season so impressive.
It was abundantly clear that Hall was nowhere near 100% when the season started. The Jets knew it, too, which is why Hall didn’t hit a 50% snap share in any of his first four games. He was completely unstartable in fantasy over the first month of the season.
Beginning Week 5, we saw a change. Hall started gaining more confidence in his knee. As he got healthier, his performance improved. But he was still not fully recovered and still limited by his offense.
Through 13 weeks, Hall was only at 13.5 fantasy points per game. He finished the season averaging 17.1 ppg. He raised his ppg average by 3.6 points in just five games.
Including Week 18, Hall averaged 25.8 fantasy points per game from Week 14 onward. He was able to carry the ball a whopping 37 times in the final game of the season (please never do this again, Jets. Thanks!)
Even with his knee never at 100%, Hall averaged 3.9 yards created per touch and posted a 25.8% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate. In a bad offense running behind a weak offensive line, Hall proved capable of producing on his own.
Now, Hall should get a full season with Rodgers. By his own admission, his knee is feeling like it did before he got hurt. If Hall can finish as the overall RB6 in just about the worst circumstances imaginable, it’s exciting to think about how good he can be this year in much better circumstances.
Is Hall a Good Fantasy Pick?
The No. 1 overall pick in every league should be McCaffrey. Once he’s gone, the next two RBs to go will be Hall and Robinson. It appears the fantasy community has decided Hall should be the next man up, as his ADP is No. 5 overall, one spot ahead of Robinson.
I have Robinson ahead of Hall, but the more important evaluation is I have both of them ahead of every wide receiver.
Remember back in 2015 when Devonta Freeman was one of the lowest-scoring overall RB1s of all time? Elite first-round RBs Le’Veon Bell, Arian Foster, and Jamaal Charles all got hurt. We also lost Dion Lewis and Marshawn Lynch that year.
The running back position was a disaster. The RB1 threshold was the lowest it had been in years. So, in 2016, fantasy managers reacted by making three wide receivers the first three picks in the draft.
Naturally, things regressed to the mean. The 2016 running backs didn’t get hurt at the same rate. They thrived. Taking an elite running back amidst a sea of elite wide receivers was an advantage. I am sensing a similar trend this year.
The most valuable asset in fantasy remains the elite running back. In the modern NFL, so few backs are true workhorses. When you are in a position to draft one of them, do it.
CMC, Robinson, and Hall are the only three running backs who are elite talents projected for goal-line work and high target shares. They are the cornerstone of a great fantasy team.
If you prefer Hall to Robinson, then Hall should be your pick at any spot in the first round, assuming McCaffrey isn’t there. I slightly prefer Robinson, but you can’t go wrong with either one of these elite backs.