The 2026 NFL Draft doesn’t kick off for another 10 months, but now’s as good a time as any to get educated on the upcoming class. Fans and analysts alike can determine the best way to use the “dead period” of the NFL offseason. For me, I use it to try and identify diamonds in the rough for the next draft class.
In recent years, there’s usually at least one quarterback who explodes onto the scene to become a first-round pick. Players like Jaxson Dart, Jayden Daniels, and Michael Penix Jr. were not thought of as consensus first-round picks going into their final year in college. However, a stellar final season propelled them into the national spotlight.
When predicting breakout candidates, it’s important to look for specific criteria. Some of these players might be first-year starters taking advantage of a new opportunity to dominate on the field. Others may have shown intriguing tools in 2024 and could build off of that in 2025.
Without further ado, here are some of the top breakout quarterback candidates for the 2026 NFL Draft.
2026 NFL Draft’s Top Breakout Candidates at Quarterback
Arch Manning, Texas
At this stage, Arch Manning is one of the most perplexing evaluations in the 2026 draft class. Pedigree aside, he’s started just two career college games, and four of his nine career passing touchdowns came in a single game against UTSA.
Though far from a sure-thing prospect heading into 2025, Manning could leave this season with no questions left. The upside is obvious when you watch him. He’s a smart, poised quarterback who reads the field well and gets the ball out on time. He’s got a solid arm with good velocity and flexibility in his release, and he’s a strong athlete at the position.
While I can’t call Manning my QB1 for the 2026 NFL Draft yet, he absolutely could be that guy by the time it’s all said and done. The sample size is still way too small to reach any conclusions, but with his talent and name value, Manning will be the most intriguing college quarterback to watch this season.
Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
Depending on who you ask, Sam Leavitt may have already broken out. As a first-year starter for Arizona State in 2024, he scored 29 total touchdowns with just six interceptions.
Leavitt gives off J.J. McCarthy vibes on film. He’s a bit lean, but he’s got a loose arm and can thread the ball into tight windows. Leavitt’s agility and top-end speed give him true dual-threat value, and he rarely puts the ball in harm’s way.
Sam Leavitt looks like he might have the DEADLIEST arm in college football after his recent training footage released.
Leavitt is seen throwing 50+ yards FLAT-FOOTED and 40+ yard missiles while on the run.
Several NFL scouts reportedly believe Leavitt is the “most prolific” QB… pic.twitter.com/JPnxLwXNAR
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) May 31, 2025
Leavitt still shows some inconsistency with anticipation and touch on deep throws, but the flashes are there. He’s got the physical tools and mental makeup to be an NFL starter. If Arizona State repeats last year’s playoff run, Leavitt could land firmly in the first-round conversation.
Dante Moore, Oregon
It’s been a wild college ride for Dante Moore. A five-star recruit out of high school, Moore went 3-2 as UCLA’s starting QB in 2023 before transferring to Oregon, where he backed up Dillon Gabriel last season.
Now, Moore is in line to start in 2025. He has a solid arm, but it’s his deep-ball touch that gives him real NFL upside.
Moore does a great job finding soft spots in zone coverage and hitting his targets in stride. With Oregon’s loaded receiver room, he’ll have plenty of chances to show off that accuracy downfield.
He’ll need to clean up the turnovers — Moore had nine interceptions to 11 touchdowns in 2023 — but Oregon is expected to be one of the top teams in college football. If Moore lives up to his recruiting hype, his stock could take off.
Aidan Chiles, Michigan State
Michigan State has had a rough stretch in recent years, but there’s reason for optimism entering Year 2 under head coach Jonathan Smith — and it starts with Aidan Chiles.
Chiles backed up DJ Uiagalelei at Oregon State in 2023, then followed Smith to East Lansing and went 5-7 as the Spartans’ starter in 2024. He didn’t have much help, though, as offensive lineman Luke Newman was the only Michigan State player drafted in 2025.
A more active transfer portal should give Chiles better weapons this season. He’s a strong athlete with a live arm, capable of throwing off-platform with power and accuracy. Chiles was a little reckless last year, but his traits look like those of a future NFL starter.
John Mateer, Oklahoma
The top quarterback pickup early in the transfer portal, John Mateer put together a big 2024 at Washington State. He scored 44 total touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing) and showed off his arm strength and flexibility on a wide range of throws.
Mateer has a solid sense of timing, knows how to climb the pocket, and picks his spots to run. On top of that, he’s a really good athlete.
Mateer stayed under the radar last year in a dying Pac-12, but that’ll change in 2025. Now at Oklahoma, he’ll have a much bigger platform — and if he keeps putting up numbers, his draft stock could soar.
Eli Holstein, Pittsburgh
Eli Holstein is one of the more interesting cases in this QB class. He started for Pittsburgh in 2024 as a redshirt freshman after sitting out 2023 at Alabama in Nick Saban’s final season.
Holstein looked more polished than most second-year quarterbacks. He senses pressure well, has solid footwork and awareness in the pocket, and can extend plays when needed. His deep-ball touch will draw plenty of interest from NFL scouts.
Compared to others in this class, Holstein might not have the biggest arm or elite traits. But he’s accurate, smart, and tough, and that could be enough to break out in 2025 and play his way into the draft mix.