There’s little debate as to who the best wide receiver on the San Francisco 49ers is — it’s Brandon Aiyuk. Nevertheless, this offense has a ton of weapons.
While Aiyuk is very good, the lack of forced volume may prevent him from being great. Should fantasy football managers pay a second-round price tag for the talented WR?
Brandon Aiyuk’s Fantasy Forecast
Fantasy managers may be viewing Aiyuk as a WR1, but even his high-WR2 numbers should be looked at as impressive. After all, the 49ers have been the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL over the past two seasons.
Aiyuk seemed destined for greatness after his stellar rookie season, which saw him average 15.4 fantasy points per game. He took a step back as a sophomore, averaging just 10.0 points per game, but then, in his third year, the true climb began.
In 2022, Aiyuk averaged 13.4 fantasy ppg before setting a career-high 15.6 points per game in 2023.
It’s clear Aiyuk is the No. 1 wide receiver in San Francisco’s offense. While that, alone, is important, what’s more important for fantasy is what being an NFL WR1 typically means for a player’s volume.
The target share threshold for WR1s is about 25%, which is exactly what Aiyuk earned last season. Unfortunately, not all 25% target shares are created equal.
Due to the 49ers’ low-volume passing attack, Aiyuk only caught 75 passes. On the positive side, the efficiency of his offense enabled him to turn that into 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns.
Aiyuk has always been a decent downfield receiver, but he took it to another level in 2023. His 13.8 aDOT (average depth of target) was 17th in the league. That resulted in him averaging a stellar 12.8 yards per target and 3.18 yards per route run, second and third in the league, respectively.
Aiyuk burst out of the gate last year, posting his best week of the season in Week 1, scoring 32.9 fantasy points. Overall, he didn’t have many spike weeks, with just four games of 20+ fantasy points. However, Aiyuk registered just three games under 10 fantasy points, proving that he rarely completely fails.
While Aiyuk’s efficiency was elite last season, volume is king in fantasy football. It’s difficult to envision a scenario where Aiyuk is ever targeted at the level of guys like CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, or Tyreek Hill.
To be fair, we’re not asking Aiyuk to be any of those guys. However, he’s being drafted as the WR17, No. 34 overall.
I like Aiyuk. He’s a very good player in a very good situation. I would not be upset if he was on my fantasy team. At that price, he’s a fine pick. The problem is I don’t buy the price. I believe it is a product of fear over his contract/trade situation. If you draft after that is resolved, his ADP is going to move.
Regardless of what happens, though, Aiyuk unlikely to completely bust. But I have a difficult time figuring out how Aiyuk can significantly improve upon last season.
Aiyuk is competing for targets with Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, and now Ricky Pearsall. We know targets are a skill statistic and earned by good players. We know Aiyuk is a good player, but so are all of these other guys.
In the 49ers’ offense, Aiyuk is never going to be a heavy total volume guy. With that in mind, I once again pose the question: How does Aiyuk improve upon last season?
In 2023, Aiyuk was second in the league at 17.9 yards per reception, a jump of 4.9 ypr from the previous season. Even if we project him to maintain that (which we shouldn’t), it’s hard to project any increase in target share. That leaves the only path to improvement in the touchdown department.
Can Aiyuk score more than seven times this season? Sure, but touchdowns are flukey. He can just as easily score five touchdowns as he can 12.
If Aiyuk falls to me at the right price, I will gladly scoop him up. However, he’s my WR15 for a reason.
It’s because I believe every player I have ranked above him has a similar floor with a much higher ceiling. There are a handful of guys ranked below him with higher upside as well (but lower downside). As a result, Aiyuk is not necessarily someone to target in fantasy drafts.