The Conference Championship round of the NFL playoffs is upon us, which means the season is nearly complete. Time is limited to capitalize on fantasy football and betting value. Here at Pro Football Network, we’re diving into each individual player taking the field this weekend and seeing what values might exist. Today, we’ll look at Brandon Aiyuk’s DFS value and whether any prop bets are worth taking.
Brandon Aiyuk’s DFS value vs. Rams
Aiyuk is priced at $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s the seventh-most-expensive wide receiver and $2,200 behind Deebo Samuel. Prior to last week’s 1-target, no-catch performance, Aiyuk had been consistently solid. He posted four straight games between 11.6 and 19.7 PPR fantasy points.
Aiyuk has always been a talented receiver. It’s his usage that’s been the problem. The 49ers’ offense runs through Samuel and their ground game (which often features Samuel as well). When they do pass, Jimmy Garoppolo is looking for Samuel and George Kittle before Aiyuk. As a result, Aiyuk comes with a low weekly floor.
There’s not much we can take away from Aiyuk’s performance against the Rams. In their first meeting, he caught 3 balls for 26 yards. The second time around, he caught 6 passes for a season-high 107 yards.
DFS players can probably get Aiyuk into their lineups relatively easily due to his price. However, with the 49ers’ defense playing so well and their desire to play ugly, low-scoring games, I don’t advise a 49ers stack. You are better off using Samuel and either going with Rams players or stacking the AFC game.
Brandon Aiyuk prop bets this weekend
Aiyuk’s receiving yardage total opened at 47.5 (under -120) on DraftKings. Prior to last week’s goose egg, Aiyuk went over this number three straight games, including once against the Rams.
Whether Aiyuk can exceed 47 receiving yards depends upon game flow. The 49ers have the offensive firepower to keep up in a shootout. They also have the best defense remaining in the playoffs and have already played two low-scoring games. I would not recommend either side of Aiyuk’s receiving total.
Aiyuk’s receptions total opened at 3.5 (over -155). As I mentioned above, Aiyuk went over 3.5 receptions in one of his two games against the Rams. 3.5 is just way too low of a number to take the under.
For those of you that read my Odell Beckham DFS/prop article from last week, you know I don’t like laying more than -125/-130 on any prop. As a result, I can’t recommend taking the over here. Aiyuk’s volatility and the price on his receptions total makes this a no-bet for me.