NFL rookies often see their playing time increase throughout the season, which makes it challenging for fantasy football managers to determine the right time to pounce on adding them.
New York Jets running back Braelon Allen now presents that challenge after his breakout two-touchdown game against the Tennessee Titans. Let’s dive into the data to determine if Allen is a worthwhile pickup this week.
All stats are courtesy of TruMedia unless otherwise stated.
Should Braelon Allen Be Added On the Fantasy Waiver Wire in Week 3?
After a quiet debut that saw him garner just two touches in San Francisco, Allen made the most of his second career game.
He scored on two of his nine touches and piled up 56 scrimmage yards, third on the team behind Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. In doing so, the 20-year-old Allen became the youngest player to score a scrimmage TD since 1930, per Opta Stats.
TD for rookie @BraelonAllen!! 💨💨💨
📺 #NYJvsTEN on CBS & @paramountplus pic.twitter.com/A7Y4rgCdnL
— New York Jets (@nyjets) September 15, 2024
The most promising aspect of Allen’s breakout game was his explosiveness. A third of his touches went for 10+ yards, including both of his touchdowns (12-yard reception and 20-yard rush). The Jets have been starved for explosiveness; last year, Hall was the only player on the team with more than one TD of 20+ scrimmage yards the whole season.
The home run ability isn’t a fluke either, as this is how Allen profiled coming out of Wisconsin. From 2021-23, Allen averaged 5.9 yards per carry, highest among FBS players with at least 500 carries.
Of course, Hall remains one of the more reliable starting running backs in the league, and it’s unlikely the Jets would turn the backfield touches into a timeshare even if Allen continues to shine.
As much as he excelled on Sunday, Allen only played 20 out of 56 possible snaps, or 35.7%. Outside of the deepest leagues, that is simply not a sustainable participation rate for a weekly starter.
In the short term, he will also face a New England Patriots defense that ranks third in yards per rush allowed this season.
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However, dynasty leagues and managers with Hall should absolutely stash Allen on their bench. No other running back got into the game for the Jets on Sunday, suggesting that Allen would become a bell-cow back should Hall be unavailable for any reason.
And with Hall entering the final season of his rookie contract in 2025, Allen could become the Jets’ long-term starter if New York balks at extending Hall.
Allen certainly qualifies as one of the most desirable handcuffs in the NFL. A potential Hall absence could turn Allen into a Jordan Mason-type of RB1 who becomes a must-start every week.
That’s the limit of his value in redraft leagues — though keeper and dynasty owners will want to buy stock on Allen for future seasons.