Bills vs. Dolphins Wild Card Round DFS Picks: Lineup Includes Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, and . . . Trent Sherfield?

Bills vs. Dolphins Wild Card Round DFS Picks: Lineup Includes Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, and . . . Trent Sherfield?

If you’re looking for Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins DFS picks in Sunday’s Wild Card faceoff, then you’ve come to the right place. We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated or fall short of expectations.

The following recommended fantasy football lineup (for tournaments, 50/50, or head-to-head competitions) aims to lock in a relatively high floor while maximizing upside.

Bills Considerations

Buffalo is on a seven-game winning streak. Of their last five victories, four have come against the AFC East. The days of the 6-3 Bills at risk of somehow missing the postseason are long gone. But make no mistake, a few different bounces could have made this franchise sweat down the stretch.

A game-tying touchdown with 3:26 remaining against the Ravens, followed by a game-winning field goal as time expired. A game-winning touchdown against the Chiefs with a minute left. A game-winning field goal with two seconds remaining to beat the Lions on Thanksgiving. A game-winning field goal as time expired to beat these Dolphins in Week 15.

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Of course, “these Dolphins” is stated loosely. Four weeks ago, a loss to Miami would have dropped Buffalo’s divisional lead to a single game, with the Fins holding the potential tiebreaker. Much has changed for these two franchises since then — and not just their win-loss records.

Buffalo holds all the cards in this rematch, including the momentum and experience of a team that’s surely — if subconsciously — eyeing a rematch with the Chiefs in two weeks. For DFS purposes, we need to lean into the Bills’ primary playmakers. The biggest question is whether we do a 4-2 split (four Bills, two Dolphins), or 5-1.

Dolphins Considerations

How many times has a team lost five straight and then won their final regular-season contest to eke into the postseason? Probably not many. The Dolphins lost four of those games by six points or less.

Ironically, their only victory during this stretch came last weekend, in rookie Skylar Thompson’s only complete game. The 25-year-old rookie was the second-to-last QB drafted in 2022, 15 spots ahead of Brock Purdy.

With Tua Tagovailoa out, and with both Teddy Bridgewater and Raheem Mostert hobbled, we’re looking at an abnormally top-heavy collection of Dolphins for DFS considerations: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jeff Wilson Jr.

The challenge is whether we can trust any of them. If we can’t, we might be compelled to snag a cheap Dolphin flier to make room for five high-priced Bills. Because that just might reflect the most likely game script.

Top NFL DFS Picks for Bills vs. Dolphins

Today, we’re playing DraftKings “Showdown Captain Mode,” which includes one player who earns 1.5 times his scoring output, plus five Flex players.

The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.

Captain: QB Josh Allen, Bills ($18,600)

A steep price to pay, but of course, it’s well worth it. The best fantasy QB in the game should dominate against an opponent that might realistically punt 7+ times, giving Josh Allen every opportunity to light up the scoreboard.

Flex: WR Stefon Diggs, Bills ($10,600)

Of course. As you’re about to see, this proposed lineup assumes Buffalo will crush Miami by 24+ points. In a near-perfect world for the Dolphins, Wilson, Hill, and Waddle will help keep things close. More realistically, Stefon Diggs will rack up more yards than any of them — and yes, perhaps more than all three combined if this game gets out of hand.

Flex: WR Gabe Davis, Bills ($7,200)

I remain convinced that the most glaring issue on offense for the Bills is the erratic production of Gabe Davis. If he can ascend in the postseason, Buffalo will be the favorites to win the Super Bowl. He’s that important to a team that has few weaknesses, but which (as we can see from the recent Cole Beasley signing) is still looking for WR help.

Flex: RB Devin Singletary, Bills ($6,800)

I suggest submitting a second lineup, replacing Devin Singletary with the cheaper James Cook. Neither of them are “great” bets to exceed 12 carries, and neither has been consistently utilized in the passing game. It’ll come down to scoring opportunities, of which there should be several.

Flex: Bills D/ST ($4,600)

Should we go with the Bills D/ST or add Cook to this lineup alongside Singletary? It’s a big question. I like both approaches, but I’m leaning toward the defense — and not because of Nyheim Hines’ heroics last weekend. Facing a weakened Dolphins offense and inexperienced QB, Buffalo’s near-elite defense could take over.

Flex: WR Trent Sherfield ($1,000)

If we want to get cute, Salvon Ahmed can be locked in for $200 — an intriguing option if he complements Wilson. But I’d rather bet on a desperate Miami squad airing it out in the second half. Trent Sherfield officially is the team’s No. 3 WR. Ignore his recent struggles. Or don’t. Either way, given his role, his $1,000 price tag makes him a strong potential bargain.

Whatever you decide, good luck tonight.