If you’re planning to make NFL prop bets for this fascinating Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Divisional Round matchup on Sunday, you’ve come to the right place.
We’ve analyzed the game’s highest-probability scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated and which could fall short of expectations. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, or FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Top Bills vs. Bengals Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics pulled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes.
Thirty-one points in the final six minutes and nine seconds. One of the greatest NFL postseason games ever played took place a year ago tomorrow. If Buffalo had eked out the win, they would have faced the Bengals in the AFC Championship game. Instead, it was the Chiefs. Buffalo would have to wait at least one more year.
MORE: Bengals vs. Bills Odds and Prediction
Today’s contest is a continuation of games we never got to see (like Buffalo advancing last season) and games undone by near tragedy (Damar Hamlin). It’s a contest between two evenly matched foes seeking their first Super Bowl title — yet foes that clearly respect each other, as their recent outpouring of love, grief, and community demonstrated.
These franchises have faced off six times in the previous 11 years. Five of those games were decided by four points or less. We shouldn’t be surprised if this one is equally competitive.
The Bills have the edge, in my opinion, and not because the market places them as favorites. Their defense is the X-factor. Joe Burrow has been sacked 146 times in only 47 career games. That’s an unsustainable 3.1 per contest.
I can’t find another “great” QB in NFL history with a higher rate. Maybe there are. Russell Wilson’s is 2.8. Randall Cunningham’s was 3.0. Surely, Burrow can still dominate. But in 12 career games when he’s absorbed 5+ sacks, he’s never thrown more than two TD passes. His TD-INT ratio in those contests is 15-12. Not great. And entirely expected.
The Bills’ defense is merely tied for 14th with 40 sacks and is also 14th with 99 QB hits. Losing Von Miller didn’t help, though that doesn’t tell the whole story. They’re not blitzing very much. Instead, they’re winning with elite coverage, tying for fourth with 17 interceptions.
I bring this up because many of the following props tie back to Burrow’s prospects. His outlook impacts the outlook of his receivers, which in turns impacts the frequency of Buffalo’s offensive possessions and how the game script might influence Josh Allen and the passing game.
The following recommendations assume the Bills prevail by a rough final score of 26-17. Buffalo won’t have the luxury of taking its foot off the pedal, and Cincinnati won’t have the patience to fully establish the run.
Josh Allen Player Props
The Bengals have been tough against the run — particularly against RBs, who are averaging only 3.9 yards per carry. And . . . they’re also somehow yielding the fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs.
We should expect a regression for Cincy against the Bills’ fierce offense. But I’m not banking on a blowup yardage game for Josh Allen. 240 passing yards and 45 rushing yards seem realistic. However, the TDs should continue to flow.
- Passing yards under 268.5
(-114) — FanDuel
- Passing touchdowns over 1.5
(-188) — FanDuel
- Rushing yards under 45.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Gabe Davis Player Props
Never count out Gabe Davis, the Bills’ increasingly clear-cut No. 2 WR. Allen should continue to look his way, even with Isaiah McKenzie expected to return. For Buffalo to win the title, they’ll need Davis to play some of his best football of the season. Last weekend was a good start.
- Receiving yards over 56.5
(-114) — FanDuel
Joe Burrow Player Props
Consider for a moment the pressure on Joe Burrow to help lead his team back to the Super Bowl with a running game averaging the fourth fewest yards per carry. Last year, Joe Mixon ran better. Also last year, Burrow had more time to throw the ball.
It might be argued that Bills CB Tre’Davious White’s season-ending injury last year cost Buffalo a title shot. They lost their next two games, squandering their chance at the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage.
We should never dismiss Burrow. At the same time, he’s exceeded 300 passing yards only four times this season. In fact, he’s needed 86 more throws (compared to last year) to produce one extra TD pass and 136 fewer passing yards. He’s working harder, with mixed results.
I believe the Bills’ D will overwhelm Burrow for most of this contest. Cincy’s accustomed to controlling the clock (they’re No. 3 in offensive time of possession). But what happens if they can’t? Taken out of his game, Burrow should struggle to hit his yardage prop.
- Passing yards under 276.5
(-115) — FanDuel
Ja’Marr Chase Player Props
See above. No doubt, Burrow will need to target Ja’Marr Chase — arguably their offense’s top playmaker and one of the league’s best. Buffalo knows this, and I believe they have the personnel to contain him, forcing Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst to beat them. Easier said than done.
Chase’s props assume continued dominance. I don’t like his odds.
- Receiving yards under 86.5
(-114) — FanDuel