The Buffalo Bills will face the Indianapolis Colts in Week 10. Here’s fantasy football start-sit advice for every Bills skill player who has the potential to make a fantasy impact during the game.
Looking for more lineup advice? Head over to our Week 10 Fantasy Start-Sit Cheat Sheet, where we cover every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Josh Allen, QB
What more is there to say about Josh Allen? He’s dialed back the reckless rushing and senseless risk-taking, making him a more consistent player for both the Bills and fantasy managers. The physical runs are still a part of his game, but he doesn’t seem to be seeking contact the way he did in the past. That’s good news across the board.
Allen has multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests, a sign to me that he is gaining comfort with his teammates. The level of talent around him is only going to improve as Amari Cooper gets healthy and acclimated, positioning Allen for yet another Tier 1 finish at the position this week and this season.
If you’re curious, the indoor status of this game can’t hurt: Allen has only played inside four times in his career, but he’s cleared 26 fantasy points in three of those instances. I think Jalen Hurts’ ceiling is a touch higher, but ranking Allen as my QB2 this week isn’t a knock — if you have him rostered, you have a chance to win any matchup.
James Cook, RB
James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards — he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
As scary as that profile is, I’m not the least bit nervous about this week against a Colts defense that ranks 27th against running backs after contact and 29th in RB rushing yards per game. Through nine weeks, Cook is the third most efficient running back when compared against expectations (Derrick Henry leading the charge with Jahmyr Gibbs second) and grades out as an RB1 for me this week.
Ray Davis, RB
Ray Davis took a 63-yard pass to the house last week, and he continues to impress with his decisive running style. He’s a poor man’s Isiah Pacheco in terms of running hard, and that’s an easy skill set to buy into, but James Cook is pretty clearly the man in Buffalo. That gives Davis more value to Buffalo’s offense as a whole than fantasy rosters.
In Week 9, Davis’ snap share was down to 13.6% (21.7% in Week 8 against the Seahawks), further closing out any hope of him positioning himself for stand-alone value down the stretch of his rookie season.
Do you know what Davis is? He’s a young Raheem Mostert but with a mobile QB.
Amari Cooper, WR
Amari Cooper has had his fair share of injuries over the past few seasons (two missed games in 2023 and 11 last season), and a wrist injury kept him from taking the field last week against the Dolphins in what was expected to be his third game with the Bills.
It’s been a bit of an uneven start to Cooper’s career with Buffalo, but he’s left enough breadcrumbs for me to feel good about him as a PPR WR2 this weekend, assuming he clears all health hurdles. Cooper only played one-third of the snaps in Week 7 against the Titans (41.7% on-field target share), and while he only earned a pair of looks in Week 8’s win in Seattle, his snap share rose to 50.7%.
If the wrist injury isn’t more serious than being let on, expecting him to be on the field for three-quarters of Buffalo’s snaps isn’t unreasonable. Against a defense that struggles to create pressure, thus allowing opposing pass games to be efficient, this should be Cooper’s best game as a member of the Bills.
Keon Coleman, WR
This will be an interesting case study in terms of trust. Josh Allen checked out of a red-zone run last week, opting to throw to Keon Coleman on a slant. The decision was sound — that is until the rookie turned a potential touchdown into a turnover.
“The NFL is a game of inches.”
I hate clichés, but they come about for a reason and some remain true with time. If Coleman secures that pass and scores, with nothing else changing, his weekly finish moves from WR66 to WR24. Coleman’s talent is clear, but so are his inconsistencies.
Amari Cooper hasn’t been on the field enough following his trade to Buffalo to give us a good feel as to how Coleman will be used. There’s certainly risk involved, and that is why I have the rookie ranked third among receivers on this team for the rest of the season.
Khalil Shakir, WR
Targets to Khalil Shakir are essentially freebies for Josh Allen. With improved maturity as a passer, that role is more advantageous this season than prior ones. Shakir has reached double figures in PPR points in seven of eight games this year and has been targeted on over 24% of his routes in three consecutive games.
Not all players in your starting lineup need to offer weekly winning upside. Counting on Shakir is something that savvy fantasy managers have elected to do this season, and I think that is the case again in this spot against a defense that allows the second-highest completion percentage on balls thrown less than 10 yards downfield (79.4%).
Dalton Kincaid, TE
Evan Engram has been great since returning, right? He’s been operating at a 100-catch pace over the past month and is earning targets at an elite level. Well, over that stretch, he is the only tight end in the NFL being targeted on a higher percentage of his routes than Dalton Kincaid.
Buffalo’s star hasn’t yet turned those opportunities into fantasy goodness (just one finish better than TE10 through nine weeks this season), but I chase profiles this time of year. That is why I’ve sent out more than a few offers to try to up my Kincaid exposure before fantasy trade deadlines.
He’s seen an end-zone target in consecutive games and has seen his average depth of target slowly tick up after his usage early in the season looked more like that of a running back than a game-breaking pass catcher.
During a stretch last season (Week 17, Week 18, and Wild Card Round), Kincaid cleared 12.5 PPR points in three straight games. Who is to say a run like that doesn’t come before this fantasy season runs out? Who is to say it doesn’t come during a friendly December run?
Kincaid’s best football in terms of fantasy production, I believe, is ahead of him, and we could see some of that potential this weekend against a Colts defense that ranks no better than 26th in passer rating, completion percentage, and yards per pass attempt this season.
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: Buffalo is seeking a fifth straight win – they haven’t had a five-game win streak in the first 10 weeks of a season during the 2000s.
QB: In eight games this season, Josh Allen has been held without a deep touchdown pass seven times (on Sunday against the Dolphins, he attempted just three deep passes (five games prior: 8.6 deep pass attempts per game).
Offense: The Bills are turning the ball over just 0.44 times per game, the second-fewest in the NFL and down from 1.65 times per game a season ago.
Defense: Dink-and-dunk: opponents average a league-low 6.2 air yards per throw against Buffalo this season.
Fantasy: James Cook opened the season with a pair of games over 70 rushing yards – he’s reached 45 rushing yards in just two of six games since. He saved your day with a season-high five receptions against the Dolphins on Sunday, but that’s a dangerous way to live.
Betting: Under tickets have come through in five of Buffalo’s past six road games, but don’t mistake that for sportsbooks struggling to handicap this team – all of those games finished within three points of the closing total.
Indianapolis Colts
Team: Indianapolis’s offense has only been on the field for 25:41 per game this season, which is 100 seconds less per game than any other offense in the league.
QB: Over the past four weeks, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have made two starts apiece.
- Flacco: 5.7 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
- Richardson: 5.4 yards per attempt with as many touchdowns as interceptions
Offense: The Colts rank 30th in offensive success rate (ahead of only the Chargers and Browns).
Defense: After a brutal start to the season, the Colts own the second-best rush defense by EPA (first: Chargers).
Fantasy: Josh Downs has a 36.5% on-field target share from Joe Flacco this season (Michael Pittman: 19%, Alec Pierce: 10.3%).
Betting: The Colts are 4-0 ATS at home this season (they haven’t had a winning ATS season in front of their home fans since 2017).