Best Fantasy Football Picks for Every AFC Team in 2024: Mark Andrews, Breece Hall, and Others

For some NFL teams, we will draft as many as eight or nine players from their roster in fantasy football drafts. For others, we may only see a couple of their players get selected.

From top to bottom in the AFC, there is plenty of fantasy value. Regardless of how many players are taken from each AFC squad, one of them will end up being the best value.

That will be today’s focus — who is the best fantasy football asset on each team in the AFC?

Who Are the Best Fantasy Football Picks for AFC Teams in 2024?

Baltimore Ravens: TE Mark Andrews

I am all in on Mark Andrews this season. This is a player who has consistently been going around the third round of fantasy drafts. Now, after one injury-shortened season, he’s going in the fourth and sometimes even the fifth. Why?

Since breaking out in 2019, Andrews has never finished lower than the overall TE5. Last season, he still averaged 13.5 fantasy ppg. If we remove his last game, in which he played just seven snaps, Andrews would have been at 14.6 ppg.

The fantasy community has fallen in love with the new, hot names of Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, and Dalton Kincaid. I submit that Andrews should go ahead of all three of them. He is the tight end to target in fantasy drafts this season.

Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman

This is the part of fantasy football that I think novice players struggle with the most. I do not like Keon Coleman as a talent. I think he is going to go the way of every other contested-catch specialist like Quentin Johnston or Josh Doctson. Yet, I’m calling him a value. Why?

It’s a combination of Coleman’s cost and upside. Out of every wide receiver on the Bills, Coleman is the one with the highest ceiling. That fact is indisputable. Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are not going to suddenly become top-18 assets. I don’t think Coleman will, either, but it’s at least plausible.

With a low-WR4 ADP, I’m willing to hedge my bets. What if I’m wrong and Coleman is far better than I think? The cost to find out is minimal, but the benefit if I am wrong is massive.

Cincinnati Bengals: RB Zack Moss

This is the first value pick I need to put an asterisk on. This article was written in early August. At this time, I still believe Zack Moss will be the lead back and primary goal-line rusher. But there have been reports out of training camp that Chase Brown is running with the first team as well. I reserve the right to change my mind.

For now, though, I am sticking with Moss, as I expect him to essentially be what Joe Mixon was last year.

We got a glimpse of Moss in a lead-back role last season. He averaged a very respectable 4.7 yards per touch and proved capable of handling significant volume when necessary. In six games with Jonathan Taylor out, Moss averaged 14.0 fantasy ppg. And that doesn’t include his 33.5-point effort in Taylor’s first game back in Week 5 when Moss was still the primary back.

Last season, Mixon averaged 4.0 yards per carry, saw a 10.8% target share, and was outside the top 30-35 in most efficiency metrics. He was pretty much just a guy who ate volume. Efficiency-wise, Moss doesn’t look much different.

My theory on Moss is we’re getting about 80% of 2023 Mixon at a four-round discount.

Cleveland Browns: WR Amari Cooper

What are we doing here? Why is Amari Cooper going outside the top 24 WRs?

Sure, he’s 30 years old, but we’ve seen exactly zero signs of decline. Cooper has been as reliable as fantasy assets can get for nearly a decade.

Cooper has averaged between 13.3 and 15.4 fantasy ppg in all but one season in his career. The Browns’ roster does not have another receiver that is even remotely a threat to Cooper’s target share. If anything, we should expect it to increase from just 23.6% last season. Cooper is one of the most undervalued players at his fifth-round ADP.

Denver Broncos: WR Courtland Sutton

Technically, someone on the Broncos has to be the best value, it just doesn’t necessarily mean that player is worth drafting in fantasy. So, I guess the answer here is Courtland Sutton.

The Broncos can be best described as a fantasy wasteland. There’s just not much here. In standard-sized fantasy leagues, we may very well see only two players from this team get drafted.

If you want to argue that Javonte Williams is more valuable, I wouldn’t argue it. The same goes for Jaleel McLaughlin, or perhaps even rookie RB Audric Estimé.

I went with Courtland Sutton because how many real-life WR1s with absolutely no competition for targets can you get outside the top 45 wide receivers?

Sutton was largely dependent on touchdowns last season, scoring 10 of them on just 59 receptions. He’s unlikely to reach that number with a rookie quarterback. But even so, there aren’t any exciting options on the Broncos. Sutton is the best value of a weak group.

Houston Texans: RB Joe Mixon

The best value isn’t necessarily the cheapest fantasy-relevant option. Mixon always goes before Tank Dell and occasionally goes ahead of Stefon Diggs. Yet, Mixon is the player on this team I want the most.

There’s value in being a running back who can handle a heavy workload. That’s been Mixon every year of his career. He’s not going to blow anyone away with efficiency, but he’s incredibly reliable.

Mixon’s career yards per carry is 4.1; last year, he was at 4.0 and saw a solid 10.8% target share. His 15.7 fantasy ppg is right in line with what he’s done his entire career.

Now, he joins an offense led by C.J. Stroud with no shortage of weapons. They are going to score a lot. If Mixon is simply the same guy we saw last year, he will go down as a tremendous value at his fourth-round price tag.

Indianapolis Colts: WR Michael Pittman Jr.

Whether Michael Pittman Jr. qualifies as the best value on the Colts really depends on your draft room. There’s nearly a 10-positional spot disparity between Pittman’s PPR and half-PPR ADP. I’m just not sure where the negativity stems from.

As the clear WR1 with minimal target competition, Pittman commanded an elite 30.5% target share, fourth in the league. His 2.08 yards per route run was good for 23rd in the NFL. All of this led to him catching 109 passes for 1,152 yards and four touchdowns, averaging 15.6 fantasy ppg.

Despite the Colts drafting WR Adonai Mitchell, I see no threats to Pittman’s target share. He should be around 30% once again. Sure, the overall volume will be down. However, Anthony Richardson should make up for that by providing the Colts with an overall better offensive environment.

Most importantly, I bet Pittman scores more than four touchdowns. Based on his volume last season, he should’ve had around seven. Pittman is a great value beginning in the second half of the third round.

Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Christian Kirk

Two years ago, Christian Kirk got his “Christian Kirk money” and was the clear WR1 on the Jaguars. He averaged a career-high 14.2 fantasy ppg.

Last year, Kirk regressed a bit, largely due to poor quarterback play and the presence of Calvin Ridley.

His quarterback is still Trevor Lawrence, which is obviously less than ideal, but Ridley is now gone. Kirk’s competition for targets is Evan Engram, who is formidable, but then it’s Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. Kirk could easily reach a 25% target share this season. He’s one of my favorite picks in the fifth or sixth round of fantasy drafts.

Kansas City Chiefs: QB Patrick Mahomes

The last time Patrick Mahomes even had a chance to be the best value on the Chiefs was back in 2018, his first year starting. Since then, he’s been a perennial top-three option. That is, until now.

For much of the summer, Mahomes was going outside the top three quarterbacks. He’s now creeping back up to his rightful spot as the overall QB2. However, largely, he’s still going later than he has at any point since 2018.

With the Chiefs adding two new wide receivers in Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, combined with the returns of Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce, I think we’re getting 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns from Mahomes.

Las Vegas Raiders: WR Davante Adams

I’m not even in on Davante Adams this season. He finds himself as the best fantasy value on the Raiders by default. There just isn’t anyone I even remotely want to draft on this team.

Adams averaged 15.6 fantasy ppg last season, which was his lowest mark since averaging 17.6 ppg in 2017. Those aren’t bad numbers. They’re just not what we’ve come to expect from Adams.

He averaged below 2.0 yards per route run last season. Utilizing TruMedia, I found that Adams’ EPA per target has been in decline for three consecutive seasons. In 2020, it was 0.45. It held steady at 0.44 in 2021, and in 2022, his first season with the Raiders, it fell to 0.22. Last year, it was a paltry 0.09.

Is Adams in decline, or is this a product of poor QB play? Either way, it’s not good, and the situation does not appear to have gotten any better. Nevertheless, he’s still Davante Adams. If anyone could rebound for a WR1 season at this age, it’s him. But mostly, I just dislike Adams less than the rest of the players on this team.

Los Angeles Chargers: WR Joshua Palmer

Fantasy managers love exciting young players. Ladd McConkey is the highest-drafted Chargers WR by far. But should he be going ahead of Joshua Palmer? The argument in favor of it is McConkey is a much more dynamic player. Palmer, for all he can do, has a capped ceiling.

With that said, Palmer is still the WR1 of this team. He is the most veteran receiver they have and the only one with an established rapport with Justin Herbert.

We’ve seen Palmer post high-WR3 numbers in games where he was an every-down player. Historically, that’s been when one of Keenan Allen or Mike Williams was inactive. Both are gone this year. Palmer is going around WR60. That’s essentially free.

Miami Dolphins: WR Jaylen Waddle

The best players to target are the ones drafted at their floors. Jaylen Waddle averaged 14.2 fantasy ppg last season, finishing as the overall WR21.

It was disappointing relative to his ADP but not an outright disaster. A big part of Waddle’s struggles were injury-related. Although he only missed three games, Waddle left early or missed parts of several more.

Furthermore, Waddle only scored four times. He was pretty unlucky in multiple facets of the game last year.

As a result, Waddle’s ADP has dropped to WR18, just three spots above where he finished last year in what I consider to be the worst-case scenario. Waddle should probably be going 4-6 WR spots earlier, making him an awesome value pick in fantasy.

New England Patriots: WR Ja’Lynn Polk

The 2024 Patriots will go down in fantasy football history as one of the worst teams for fantasy of all time. Without a single desirable asset on the roster, the best value has to be their second-round rookie WR, Ja’Lynn Polk.

The Patriots’ WR corps consists of journeymen and rookies. We know what Kendrick Bourne is. DeMario Douglas, for as nice as he was last season, is not a true WR1. There’s an opening here.

At the very least, Polk has the potential to sneak into the top 36 if things break right. He’s worth a late-round dart throw.

New York Jets: RB Breece Hall

The Jets have two players that typically go in the first round. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Garrett Wilson wound up being the top fantasy option on this team. However, Wilson has yet to live up to the hype, whereas Breece Hall exceeded all expectations last season.

Given that Hall goes in the top half of the first round, it is a bit strange to call him the best value on the Jets. Unfortunately, there just aren’t any players I want on this team beyond Hall and Wilson.

Coming off a torn ACL, Hall averaged 17.1 fantasy ppg, finishing as the overall RB6. This was after he was trapped in a timeshare for the first month of the season.

Now another year removed from the injury, Hall is a legitimate threat to unseat Christian McCaffrey as the overall RB1.

Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Justin Fields

Wait, what? Justin Fields? The Steelers’ backup quarterback? Make it make sense. You got it!

Obviously, no one is drafting Justin Fields outside of Superflex leagues. He’s going to open the season as Russell Wilson’s backup. But I am supremely confident Wilson is getting benched at some point this season.

Regardless of how you feel about Fields as a professional quarterback, he’s a QB1 in fantasy. He averaged 18.4 fantasy ppg last season, finishing as the overall QB9. That was amid a bad year.

When Fields inevitably supplants Wilson as the Steelers’ starting QB, he will be a hot waiver add in every league.

Tennessee Titans: RB Tyjae Spears

Initially, this was going to be DeAndre Hopkins. Unfortunately, a knee sprain that will sideline him for anywhere from 4-6 weeks forced me to reconsider. As much as I still believe in Hopkins, a 32-year-old WR entering the season injured is not a profile we want to invest in. That brings me to Tyjae Spears.

I am a big fan of Spears and have him ever so slightly ahead of Tony Pollard. Titans coaches themselves have said that both backs have similar skill sets (which is true) and neither has a defined role. They are both going to play. So, why is Spears going two full rounds after Pollard?

The bet here is that these are similar fantasy assets. Since Spears goes later, he’s the better value.