We’ve analyzed each team’s highest-probability game scripts to assess the most likely outcomes, including which players are in line to thrive more than anticipated as well as fall short of expectations.
Top Bengals vs. Falcons Player Props To Target
The following NFL betting recommendations are based on proprietary PFN predictive analytics culled from decades of NFL historical data. Using this data, I’ve built dozens of models showing actionable probabilities of better-than-expected and worse-than-expected outcomes. All prop bets are based on DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook.
Joe Burrow Player Props
Am I all in on the Bengals this weekend? Absolutely. After Atlanta’s incredible victory against the Niners, I’m anticipating a letdown against the AFC North’s biggest risers.
Cincinnati still has the personnel to push for a repeat Super Bowl appearance, and Joe Burrow is just getting warmed up. The Falcons, meanwhile, are yielding the most passing yards in the league. For context on just how rough it’s been, they’re on pace to give up 4,780 yards, which would be the most for any team since 2015. (And yes, the recently implemented 17-game season skews these results, but still, this isn’t a good pass defense.)
I expect Burrow to pick apart the Falcons like falcons pick apart carrion. Successfully and with fervor.
Passing yards over 284.5
(-115) — FanDuel
Interceptions under 0.5
(-160) — DraftKings
Marcus Mariota Player Props
First off, I was completely wrong about Marcus Mariota this summer, writing on PFN’s Facebook page that “if you’re investing in Mariota, you’re hoping he has a career year helming an offense that might not be better than last year’s Falcons, and which arguably isn’t (much?) better than the 2016 Titans. That’s a big gamble.”
And yet, he’s somehow helped guide this squad to respectability despite the odds. So I can’t claim to be “smart” when it comes to Mariota. He’s playing his best football since 2016, and he and Seattle’s Geno Smith have to be considered for Comeback Player of the Year.
Regardless, Mariota and the Falcons face an uphill climb against the battle-tested Bengals defense that’s rebounded from a shocking home loss to the Steelers in Week 1. Before Tua Tagovailoa exited with a concussion in Week 4, Cincy had limited him to 110 scoreless passing yards and an interception on four drives.
But no performance was more impressive than locking down Lamar Jackson in Baltimore in Week 5. This is the key to the Bengals’ success going forward, and more pointedly, this weekend. They know how to slow dual-threat QBs and are poised to take early advantage of Atlanta’s porous defense.
The problem for Mariota is that without Cordarrelle Patterson, he doesn’t have a solid safety valve in his backfield. Neither Tyler Allgeier nor Caleb Huntley has stepped up in the receiving game. While that might be by design, it’s still notable.
Mariota needs to play at his best to exceed betting-line expectations, and he needs the Falcons to abandon the run early — something they might not be able to do given their challenges in the passing game. I believe the Bengals will limit Mariota to enough three-and-outs to cap his ceilings on the ground and through the air.
Rushing yards under 34.5
(-115) — FanDuel
Passing yards under 193.5
(-115) — DraftKings