Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have dominated this season. Of 36 quarterbacks with over 100 attempts, Burrow ranks fifth in EPA (expected points added) per dropback. Chase ranks ninth in yards per route run. Yet the Bengals are 4-6 with two of their losses coming dramatically at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The defense needs to step up if the Bengals want to make a playoff push.
The Chargers are stringing together some impressive games, and the offense is starting to match the defense’s output; L.A. currently sits at 6-3 and is the fifth seed in the AFC playoff picture.
A win against the Bengals would push the Chargers to around an 87% chance of making the playoffs, per PFN’s in-house data. If they lose, their chances drop to around 69%, not accounting for the other results of Week 11’s expected antics. Similarly, the Bengals are around 30% with a win and around 13% with a loss.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Lines, Odds, Start Time, and More
- Spread
Chargers -1.5 - Moneyline
Chargers (-125); Bengals (+105) - Over/Under
48 total points - Game Time
Sunday, Nov. 17, 8:20 p.m. ET - Location
SoFi Stadium
Bengals vs. Chargers Preview and Prediction
I evaluated improvement by calculating the week-by-week trend in each team’s EPA. Using linear regression, I measured the slope of EPA over time for each team. Thus far, the Chargers’ offense ranks third in improvement, showcasing the hot stretch of play from Justin Herbert and his teammates.
Week to week improvement of each offense in the NFL by EPA. Notes:
Chargers offense starting to match Chargers defense!
Dolphins got Tua back.
Ravens are so good that they remain at the top despite playing at a high level regardless. pic.twitter.com/P74ia7FJt1— Mark (@footballboymcs) November 15, 2024
Overall, they rank 15th in EPA (17th in passing and 19th in rushing). The offense does lack explosiveness, ranking below average in runs and passes of 10+ and 20+ yards, but they have success in not turning the ball over. The Chargers have lost the second-least EPA due to turnovers this season and have an interception percentage of 0.4% (the lowest in the league).
What scares me about this offense is that teams that lack explosives usually make up for it with consistency. The Chargers rank 28th in success rate, meaning they are one of the worst teams at creating successful plays. They also rank 25th in series conversion rates, with 20% of their drives ending in punts (bottom three). Luckily, they play a bad Bengals defense this week to hopefully boost these numbers.
The Bengals rank 27th in defensive EPA per game and 29th in defensive success rate, giving up a successful play (an EPA greater than zero) on 46% of plays. The Bengals also fail to put any pressure on the quarterback, ranking 22nd.
The Bengals don’t have a strong preference between man and zone coverage which should help them considering the Chargers perform much better against man (13th in EPA) than zone (20th in EPA).
The important part of this matchup will be the Chargers’ defense versus the Bengals’ offense. The Bengals rank fifth in EPA per game offensively while the Chargers rank second in EPA per game defensively. The Chargers do this by trotting out zone coverage the second-most in the league at 81.9% of the time. Jesse Minter has also done a great job of disguising coverages, ranking seventh in my defensive coverage unpredictability rankings.
The Bengals are much stronger passing the ball than running, which shows in their high pass rate over expected, 6.3% (3.4% higher than anyone in the league). They rank third in EPA when passing and 25th when running.
The Bengals rank fourth in EPA and success rate in expected pass situations as well, showing that it doesn’t matter if you know it’s coming. The Chargers defense ranks fifth in EPA in expected pass situations.
The Bengals rank seventh in passes of 10 or more yards while the Chargers allow the 19th most. The Chargers also lack defensive line talent, ranking 20th in pressure generated. With Tee Higgins likely back from injury and the Bengals’ offense ranking as one of the best in the league, I am not sure the Chargers’ defense has the right skill set to stop them.
My pick: Bengals (+105)