The Cincinnati Bengals remain alive in the NFL playoff race, but only just. At 5-8, the Bengals are already three games back from the Wild Card spots with four weeks to play. To compound the issue, they have also lost to a couple of those 8-5 teams this season, leaving them in tiebreaker trouble.
However, making the playoffs remains mathematically possible for the Bengals, and while that is the case, fans have something to hope for. Therefore, let’s preview Week 15 and what Bengals fans should be rooting for in the most important games for the AFC playoff picture this week.
Cincinnati Bengals’ Playoff Chances Heading Into Week 15
Entering Sunday of Week 15, the Bengals have a very narrow path to make the NFL playoffs. The Bengals’ playoff chances stand at 5.9%, with the Wild Card spots being their only option after being eliminated from division contention two weeks ago. In terms of seeding, the Bengals’ most likely spot is the seventh seed, for which they have a 3.8% chance of earning.
However, with two teams between them and the Wild Card spots, the Bengals need a lot to go their way if they are to have any chance of being a part of the AFC playoff picture.
Bengals Rooting Guide for Week 15
The current standings in the AFC Wild Card picture see the Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Chargers, and Denver Broncos at 8-5 in the three Wild Card spots. The Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins are two games back at 6-7, with the Bengals at 5-8.
First and foremost, the Bengals could be eliminated from playoff contention this weekend, but only if they fail to win. If the Bengals win, then they cannot be eliminated, so that must be the first priority against the Tennessee Titans. The other games involving teams above them in the AFC standings are:
- Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans
- Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
- Los Angeles Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Let’s start with the two easy games. The Bengals need the Ravens and Chargers to both lose if they are to have any chance of catching either of them. Both are three games ahead with the head-to-head tiebreaker, so the Bengals would realistically need to go 4-0 and have one (or both) of them go 0-4.
There could be some multi-team tiebreakers that help the Bengals against the Chargers, but that includes a lot of moving parts over the next couple of weeks. However, to beat the Ravens to a playoff spot, Cincinnati has to finish a half-game ahead of them in the standings, which means getting to 9-8 or 8-8-1.
Now for the more complicated games, as they involve two other teams in play for those Wild Card spots.
First up is the game between the Dolphins and Texans. Cincinnati has not and will not face either, so we have to go deeper into the tiebreakers, and that is where it gets messy.
The best the Bengals’ conference record can be is 6-6, and the worst the Texans can get is 6-6. That would take us to the common games and then strength of victory as tiebreakers. Right now, those tiebreakers do not seem likely to favor the Bengals (Houston is 2-1 with two games to play against their four common opponents, and Cincinnati is 1-3 with one to play).
Miami is a lower-hanging fruit for Cincinnati. Even if they win in Week 15, if they were to finish 0-3, the Bengals could go 3-1 down the stretch and finish above the Dolphins in the standings. Additionally, the tiebreakers are a little closer to favoring the Bengals, with the Dolphins potentially able to finish 5-7 within the conference with a worse common game record or a lower strength of victory.
What this all means is that the Bengals should prefer the Texans win and just get out of the way, so to speak. Houston winning would take them closer to clinching the AFC South and, with it, a playoff spot that the Bengals could not have anyway.
That leaves the game between the Colts and Broncos. Ultimately, the desirable option is that the Colts win; a Broncos win would take them to 9-5, meaning the Bengals would have to finish at 9-8 with the Broncos losing their remaining three games for Cincinnati to have a chance of unseating them from a playoff spot.
Additionally, the Bengals face the Broncos in Week 17, so they would have a chance to clinch a crucial head-to-head tiebreaker.
However, the Colts winning is certainly no picnic. They would then be 7-7, with a conference record of 6-4 that would make them unassailable by that tiebreaker. They are already 3-0 against common opponents with two games to play, while the Bengals are 1-2 with two to play. Their SOV is already .372, which is well above the Bengals’ .231. That is a lot of tiebreakers leaning against the Bengals.
A Colts win in Week 15 is far from ideal, but much like the Texans beating the Dolphins, it is the lesser of two evils for now.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans Preview
Burrow’s Historic Heater
Joe Burrow has thrown at least three touchdowns in five straight games, the longest streak in Bengals history. Should he do that again on Sunday, Burrow will have the fifth streak of six or more straight games with a hat trick of touchdown passes.
Most consecutive games with 3+ passing TDs since the 1970 merger:
- Tom Brady (2007): 10
- Andrew Luck (2018): eight
- Peyton Manning (2004): eight
- Dan Marino (1986-87): seven
Of course, the Bengals are only 2-3 during Burrow’s current streak, which is partially a byproduct of Cincinnati’s constant negative-game-script environment. However, it also wouldn’t be correct to call Burrow a stat-padder.
The Bengals quarterback does lead the league in pass attempts, which will help the counting stats like passing touchdowns and passing yards (both categories he also leads the league in). However, the efficiency has been there as well, as Burrow has the second-highest EPA per play (0.31) when trailing this season behind only Josh Allen (0.39).
The Bengals are 2-7 in one-score games, which has tanked Cincy’s hopes of another deep playoff run. But as with most of the 2024 Bengals season, it’s hard to blame Burrow for that misfortune.
Something Has To Give: Will Levis or the Bengals’ Pass Rush?
Will Levis’ biggest weakness has been his penchant for negative plays. Turnovers are the ugliest manifestation of that tendency, but Levis also takes an inordinate amount of sacks for a quarterback with his athleticism.
Levis has been sacked on 12.5% of his dropbacks. Among 34 qualified quarterbacks, only Deshaun Watson (13.3%) during his abbreviated campaign has a worse sack rate. Watson won’t qualify by season’s end, so Levis will likely finish the season with the worst sack rate of any regular starting quarterback.
At least for one week, though, he could get a reprieve. The Bengals have the second-lowest sack rate (5.2%), ahead of only the perpetually woeful Atlanta Falcons pass rush (4.2%). Trey Hendrickson leads the league with 12.5 sacks, but that accounts for over half of Cincinnati’s 24 total sacks this season.
As it stands, Hendrickson is on pace to become the third player since 2000 to account for over half his team’s sacks in a single season.
The Impact of the Yardage You Ignore
We are aware that Burrow is putting up MVP numbers and that this Bengals defense has been a liability for the entire season, but is it possible that this game is decided when neither of those units is on the field?
This season, the Bengals rank eighth in the percentage of punts downed inside their opponent’s 20-yard line (47.7%; NFL average: 42.2%) while the Titans rank 31st (29%). Through 14 weeks, when a team downs at least two-thirds of its punts inside the 20, it wins 55.6% of the time; when its rate fails to exceed 25%, its win rate drops to 49.3%.
That may sound like a minor difference, but considering that the only two teams (Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, 12 apiece) have played more games decided by 10 or fewer points than Cincinnati (11), every little bit of win equity matters.