The last time the Bengals and Ravens met up in Week 4, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow combined for 740 passing yards and 9 passing TDs. The rematch takes place in Baltimore in Week 10.
Below is our early pick and prediction for the game. Note that all odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are current as of November 4, 2024. Stats are from TruMedia unless stated otherwise.
If you’re looking for other games, check out our Early Week 10 Picks and Predictions for the entire slate.
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Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6, 52.5)
The Baltimore Ravens put down a marker in Week 9, while the Cincinnati Bengals continued their recent pattern of beating lesser teams. There is still a gulf between these two in terms of our PR+ metric, with the Ravens being a top-five team and the Bengals sitting in the bottom half.
Lamar Jackson is on an MVP pace, and while Joe Burrow has impressed, he’s lacked the consistency of Jackson this season.
The last time these two met, we saw an offensive explosion, and that could be the case once again.
Both defenses rank outside the top 20, while both offenses are in the top 10. The Ravens have the edge on both offense and defense, so they would be the play here straight up.
The problem with the spread is that six points are a lot in a potential shootout, and we could see a late cover. Therefore, the plays here are to take the Ravens ML in a parlay with the total to go over.
Prediction: Ravens 34, Bengals 28
Pick: Over 52.5 and Ravens ML as part of a parlay
Bengals at Ravens Game Stats and Insights
Cincinnati Bengals
Team: Since Week 3, the Bengals are the third best third down offense and eighth best offense in terms of win rate.
QB: Joe Burrow threw three third down touchdown passes on Sunday against the Jets, matching a career best (also: Week 3, 2022 at Jets).
Offense: Burrow is pacing for 4,239 passing yards and a career-high 38 passing touchdowns.
Defense: Per EPA, the Bengals own the second worst run defense in the NFL (worst: Cowboys).
Fantasy: Tee Higgins is battling an injury, but this matchup should make him feel better. He led the Bengals in targets (14) in the first meeting this season and he’s punched in multiple scores in consecutive games against Baltimore.
Betting: Over tickets have cashed in five of Cincinnati’s past seven divisional games.
Baltimore Ravens
Team: The Ravens are averaging 445.9 yards of offense per game, the most through nine weeks since both the Rams (447.1) and Buccaneers (446.8) were better in 2018.
QB: Lamar Jackson is averaging 0.35 EPA per dropback. That’s the highest through a team’s first nine games since 2018 (when both Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees had higher figures).
Offense: Averaging 7.4 yards per play on first down this season, pacing them for the best such season since the 2016 Atlanta Falcons (7.6).
Defense: A league-high 78.8% of yards gained against the Ravens come through the air (3.5 percentage points ahead of any other defense).
Fantasy: Remember when Jackson was being labeled as a running back? He owns the highest passer rating in the league on balls thrown 15-plus yards this season (123.9, zero interceptions).
Betting: Since Week 15, 2022, the Ravens are 4-0 ATS against the Bengals and 1-6 ATS against the rest of the AFC North.